The Republican Revels Begin : Daniel Henninger
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-republican-revels-begin-1438813508
The GOP in 2016 can consolidate five years of historic election victories—or blow it.
How many Republican presidential candidates can dance on the head of an elephant? The answer arrives Thursday evening as Fox News stages the party’s first primary debate. In fact, so many people have piled into the GOP primary that Fox has divided them into Medallion Gold, lifting off in prime time, and Medallion Silver in afternoon economy.
Trivia question: When is the first Democratic primary debate? Answer: The party hasn’t scheduled one yet.
The Democratic Party calls to mind Groucho Marx’s remark while examining a prostrate body: “Either this man is dead or my watch has stopped.” Challenging Hillary Clinton, who now describes herself in appearances as the grandma candidate, we have the 73-year-old Vermont Socialist Bernie Sanders. Or if not Bernie, maybe the 72-year-old veep Joe Biden, or—let no one doubt it—the silver surfer, John Kerry (71).
Before the Republican revels begin on Fox, conservatives should put their candidate angst on hold and take a sober look at their party’s condition. They’re in better shape than the mad-as-hell Trumpians believe.
The modern GOP hit bottom Nov. 4, 2008, the day a freshman senator from Illinois defeated Sen. John McCain. Actually it hit bottom that Sept. 24, when Mr. McCain suspended his campaign to help solve the financial crisis. There’s a reason they call this sort of thing a Hail Mary.
The Obama wave swept 21 GOP House members from office, reducing them to 178 seats. Eight Senate losses reduced the party to 40 seats. Naturally, the majority Democrats spent the next 18 months passing big legislation.
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In March 2010, President Obama signed the Affordable Care Act and then Dodd-Frank’s federal takeover of the financial industry in July. Both were widely publicized to the American people as legacy achievements for Mr. Obama. In November, Democrats lost 63 seats in the House and entered minority status. Republicans gained six seats in the Senate, but weak GOP candidates—running on a lot of anger and not much political skill—lost in Delaware, Colorado and Nevada.
Outside the Washington Beltway, a Republican tsunami was building in 2010. After the elections, the party held more state legislative seats—more than 3,900—than at any time since 1928. The party hadn’t controlled so many full legislatures since 1952, and in the South GOP legislators surpassed Democrats for the first time since 1870.
Barack Obama’s re-election in 2012 was real enough, a tour de force of base turnout. But arguably that election was an anomaly amid a bigger political trend. Two years later, in the 2014 election, the Republican tsunami in the states rolled into Washington.
The GOP took control of the Senate by winning nine seats, including every tossup state. It was no fluke. The Democratic incumbents in Louisiana, Colorado, Arkansas and Alaska weren’t pushovers. The GOP won with smart, experienced candidates. Cory Gardner, Tom Cotton, Ben Sasse, Joni Ernst, Dan Sullivan—this wasn’t amateur hour.
Meanwhile, Republican gubernatorial candidates carried traditionally blue states: Bruce Rauner in Illinois, Larry Hogan in Maryland, Charlie Baker in Massachusetts. In 2010, Ohioans elected John Kasich governor, and Scott Walker won for the first time in Wisconsin. Chris Christie defeated a Democrat in New Jersey the year before.
During the Obama presidency, Democrats have lost more than 900 state legislative seats, giving the GOP its greatest degree of state-level control since 1920.
Not that the Democrats rolled over. There were the IRS/Lois Lerner audits of local tea-party groups from 2010 onward, which caused many to disband. Then there was the case of ALEC.
ALEC is the American Legislative Exchange Council, the right-of-center group that creates policy templates for state legislators who want to push issues such as the reform of public pensions or school reforms. This is life in the daily trenches of U.S. politics. Because of ALEC’s success in the states, progressive groups began a campaign to drive ALEC’s corporate contributors away from the “right-wing extremists.”
All this winning didn’t happen because Batman showed up or because of rage in Maryland, Ohio or Massachusetts over the Mexican border. It happened because someone took the time, a lot of it, to match smart candidates to smart policies.
The Democratic Party for much of the past 75 years did political blocking and tackling, too—and won many elections. But since 2008, it has succumbed to the Great Man theory of politics, which siphons all political life into one charismatic person.
That began to fall apart for the Democrats in the 2010 midterms. In a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll published this week, two-thirds say they now want a departure from the Obama presidency.
With a weak political bench, the Democrats will default in 2016 to an already stumbling Great Woman theory of American politics. They’ll have to fake a debate to hold the media’s interest.
The Republicans are one tough election away from consolidating five years of historic victories by controlling both the presidency and Congress.
But of course they could blow it. The revels await.
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