https://pjmedia.com/victordavishanson/trumps-chances-for-re-election-are-looking-better-and-better/
Donald Trump has at least five strong historical arguments for his re-election.
One, he is an incumbent. Incumbent presidents have won 14 of 19 re-election bids since 1900.
The few who lost did not enjoy positive approval ratings. In a Gallup poll from earlier this month, Trump enjoyed his highest approval rating since his inauguration, squeezing out a 49 percent favorable rating vs. 50 percent unfavorable.
Two, the public perception of the economy usually determines any presidential election — as incumbents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush and Herbert Hoover learned the hard way. Currently, the U.S. is enjoying low inflation, low interest rates, positive economic growth, near-record-low unemployment, rising workers’ wages, and record gas and oil production.
Three, unpopular optional wars derail incumbent presidencies.
The quagmire in Vietnam convinced Lyndon Johnson not to run for re-election in 1968. Jimmy Carter was tarnished by the seemingly never-ending Iranian hostage crisis of 1979-1981. The Iraq War drove down George W. Bush’s second-term approval ratings and helped derail his would-be Republican successor, John McCain.