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February 2023

More Vindication for Voter ID A new study finds no partisan effect, but will Democrats believe it?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/voter-id-laws-pnas-study-democrats-republicans-joe-biden-11675811901?mod=opinion_lead_pos4

This ought to be old news, but someone please inform President Biden and the Democratic Party that another academic study has found voter-ID laws don’t have real partisan consequences. How long until this is conventional wisdom? A 2021 study detected “no negative effect on registration or turnout, overall or for any group defined by race, gender, age, or party affiliation.”

The new analysis, posted Monday by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, comes at the question from a slightly different angle. “Existing research focuses on how voter ID laws affect voter turnout and fraud,” write the two authors, who are political scientists at Notre Dame. “But the extent to which they produce observable electoral benefits for Republican candidates and/or penalize Democrats remains an open question.”

So what’s the answer, after examining state and federal elections from 2003 to 2020? “The first laws implemented produced a Democratic advantage, which weakened to near zero after 2012,” the study says. “We conclude that voter ID requirements motivate and mobilize supporters of both parties, ultimately mitigating their anticipated effects on election results.” The lack of suppressive outcome explains why requiring photo ID to vote is “favored by 77% of people of color and 80% of White adults,” to quote Gallup’s poll last year.

For that matter, have a gander at the University of Georgia’s 2022 postelection survey. Asked to rate their personal experience voting in the Peach State, 72.6% of black residents said excellent, 23.6% said good, 3.3% said fair, and 0% said poor. The figures for whites were 72.7% excellent, 23.3% good, 3% fair and 0.9% poor. Those who had a “self-reported problem with voting” included 0.5% of blacks and 1.3% of whites.

The State of the Union Contradiction If Biden is such a success, why aren’t Americans pleased?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-biden-state-of-the-union-address-america-polling-economy-covid-11675809441?mod=opinion_lead_pos1

President Biden devoted most of his State of the Union address on Tuesday night to celebrating what he says is a long list of legislative and economic achievements—spending on social programs and public works, subsidies for computer chips, even more subsidies for green energy, and a strong labor market. But if he’s done so much for America, why does most of America not seem to appreciate it?

That’s the contradiction stalking his Presidency as he enters his third year and plots a likely re-election campaign. The disconnect is clear enough in the polls. His job approval rating average has climbed to 44.2% in the RealClearPolitics average, which should be better with all of that supposed good news. Gallup has it at 41%. Mr. Biden’s RCP average job approval on the economy is 38%.

The latest Washington Post/ABC poll is even worse for the President. Some 41% of Americans say they’re worse off financially than when Mr. Biden became President, while only 16% say they’re better off. Most people—62%—say Mr. Biden has accomplished either not very much or little or nothing. That includes 22% of Democrats.

And here’s the really bad news for Mr. Biden. Some 58% of Democrats say they’d prefer a different party nominee for President in 2024, and he even loses a head to head matchup with former President Trump 48%-44%.

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Polls are only snapshots in time, and few voters are focused on the 2024 choices. Mr. Biden could rise if the economy ducks a recession, inflation subsides, and Ukraine pushes Russia out of most or all of its territory.

What is America’s Strategic Interest in Ukraine? David Goldman

https://www.hoover.org/publications/strategika

As the Ukraine war enters its twelfth month, the military situation remains a stalemate, but a stalemate that gives the political advantage to Russia. If Russia can hold most of the territory in the oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson that it annexed on Sept. 30, 2022, it will claim success for its “special military operation.”

In furtherance of what strategic interests has the United States acted in Ukraine? Is Ukraine’s NATO membership an American raison d’état? Did American strategists really believe that sanctions would shut down Russia’s economy? Did they imagine that the trading patterns of the Asian continent would shift to flow around the sanctions? Did they consider the materiel requirements of a long war that is exhausting American stockpiles? Did they consider what tripwires might elicit the use of nuclear weapons? Or did they sleepwalk into the conflict, as the European powers did in 1914?

Why did Russia invade? Would Russia have invaded Ukraine if the West and the Zelensky government had put Minsk II into effect, with autonomous Russophone regions within a sovereign and neutral Ukraine? Contrafactual history is inherently unprovable, but there are good reasons to believe that this is true. Protecting the rights of Russians separated from the motherland by the breakup of the Soviet Union is a Russian raison d’état. After more than 14,000 casualties in fighting between Ukrainian nationalists and pro-Russian separatists in Donbas before the February 24th invasion, it is hard to argue that Russia’s concerns were groundless.