RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/how-grim-is-the-outlook-for-incumbents-below-50-percent/

As Greg Corombos observed on Wednesday, we’ve reached that time of year when the moment many of us type the letter “R” in a web browser, we automatically load the URL for the RealClearPolitics list of the day’s latest polls.

But there’s a school of thought that argues that what polling aggregates really give us is a sense of the level of support the incumbent enjoys. Incumbency carries a lot of advantages in American politics — usually, strong name recognition, some degree of public application of what one has accomplished in office, and significant advantages in fundraising. Most years, between 91 and 98 percent of incumbents get reelected.

There’s a rule of thumb that an incumbent who is polling above 50 percent is safe, and an incumbent polling below 50 percent is in trouble. After all, the voters already know who the incumbent is and what they think of him. If they don’t like him, they’re usually, at minimum, looking for other options.

For what it’s worth, way back in 2010, Nate Silver argued that “the incumbent 50 percent rule” was an oversimplification. “It may be proper to focus more on the incumbent’s number than the opponent’s when evaluating such a poll — even though it is extremely improper to assume that the incumbent will not pick up any additional percentage of the vote.” But I think most of us can agree that an incumbent would rather be above 50 percent than below it, and the higher your support in late polling, the better your chance of reelection.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/11/the_medias_coverage_of_kari_lake_takes_bias_to_new_extremes.html

“What’s made Lake a national phenomenon is that, on the campaign trail, her instincts are extraordinary. She’s beautiful, intelligent, has tremendous presence and—perhaps most importantly—is unafraid of the media.”

When it comes to Kari Lake, the mainstream, drive-by, leftist media is in pants-wetting mode. In a fair world, as a candidate for the Arizona governorship, Lake would get admiring or, at least, objective coverage. But we don’t live in a fair world, so the media is attacking Lake with a savagery previously reserved only for Donald Trump (after he became a Republican candidate).

Until 2021, Lake was best known in the Phoenix area, where she worked for 22 years as a television news anchor at KSAZ-TV. Her political identity was kind of all over the place. She was originally a Republican, a registration she kept until 2006. That was when, because she was dismayed by George Dubya’s wars (which saw her voting for John Kerry in 2004), she switched to Independent. Then, in 2008, clearly dazzled by Obama, she registered as a Democrat and donated to several Democrat campaigns. However, in 2021, she launched her gubernatorial campaign as a Republican.

Despite being substantially outspent during the Republican primary, Lake won handily. Perhaps it was because she didn’t let Democrats bully her into hiding her suspicions that something was deeply wrong with the 2020 election results.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-taxes-that-must-not-be-named-11667581288?mod=hp_opin_pos_6#cxrecs_s
The Taxes That Must Not Be Named James Freeman

More than a decade after former Gov. Scott Walker signed into law reforms to protect Wisconsin taxpayers from the increasingly expensive burdens of government employee unions, Democrats still can’t stop talking about him—even if they can’t bring themselves to mention his name.

Mr. Walker left office almost four years ago and isn’t on the ballot this year. But at a Democratic rally in Milwaukee County’s West Allis on Thursday, several speakers angrily referred to “he who must not be named.” Mr. Walker’s signature law, Act 10, was described in tones one might reserve for a description of a heinous crime. After enacting this sensible 2011 reform that limited the collective bargaining power of government unions and made public employees cover more of the costs of their expensive benefit plans, Mr. Walker further enraged the left by making Wisconsin a right-to-work state. This also explains why he was a favorite villain on Thursday at the event hosted by the United Steelworkers at a local union hall.

***

As for the event’s headliner, Democratic Senate candidate Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, it seems there are also a few other things he isn’t eager to mention.

Mr. Barnes is challenging Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson and there is no race in the country that offers a sharper philosophical contrast. The New York Times recently reported that helping Mr. Barnes get elected is the top priority of Vermont’s socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders, who has generously assisted with fundraising. During the Democratic primary, Mr. Barnes received endorsements from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., N.Y.) and other prominent advocates for government expansion.

Mr. Johnson, on the other hand, is perhaps the most spirited and effective defender of the taxpayer in Washington—a town where there aren’t many of them. An accountant who used to run a manufacturing company, Mr. Johnson habitually annoys his congressional colleagues by pointing out the destructiveness of their spending habits.