RUTHFULLY YOURS

As Greg Corombos observed on Wednesday, we’ve reached that time of year when the moment many of us type the letter “R” in a web browser, we automatically load the URL for the RealClearPolitics list of the day’s latest polls.

But there’s a school of thought that argues that what polling aggregates really give us is a sense of the level of support the incumbent enjoys. Incumbency carries a lot of advantages in American politics — usually, strong name recognition, some degree of public application of what one has accomplished in office, and significant advantages in fundraising. Most years, between 91 and 98 percent of incumbents get reelected.

There’s a rule of thumb that an incumbent who is polling above 50 percent is safe, and an incumbent polling below 50 percent is in trouble. After all, the voters already know who the incumbent is and what they think of him. If they don’t like him, they’re usually, at minimum, looking for other options.

For what it’s worth, way back in 2010, Nate Silver argued that “the incumbent 50 percent rule” was an oversimplification. “It may be proper to focus more on the incumbent’s number than the opponent’s when evaluating such a poll — even though it is extremely improper to assume that the incumbent will not pick up any additional percentage of the vote.” But I think most of us can agree that an incumbent would rather be above 50 percent than below it, and the higher your support in late polling, the better your chance of reelection.

Of the nine Senate races considered to be most pivotal for control of the chamber, there are six Democratic senators running for reelection, one Republican senator running for reelection, and two open-seat races. None of those races have an incumbent or a candidate with support above 50 percent in the RealClearPolitics average, although three come close.

Right now, in the RCP average, Republican senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin is at 49.4 percent. Democratic senator Patty Murray of Washington and Democratic senator Michael Bennet of Colorado are both at 49.3 percent. These three are the safest bets for reelection among the nine competitive Senate races.

After them, Mark Kelly of Arizona is at 48.2 percent, which is neither good nor yet catastrophic. (His GOP rival, Blake Masters, is currently averaging 47.2 percent.)

An incumbent senator with a polling average below 48 percent probably has good reason to sweat, and Democratic New Hampshire senator Maggie Hassan is currently at 47.8 percent. (Her GOP rival Don Bolduc, is almost even at 47 percent.)

In Georgia, Democrat Raphael Warnock is at 46.8 percent, behind Herschel Walker’s 47.2 percent. Finally, the most endangered incumbent appears to be Nevada’s Democratic senator Catherine Cortez Masto, who’s currently sitting at 45.1 percent. Republican Adam Laxalt is at 47 percent.

In the competitive Senate races with no incumbent, Ohio Republican J.D. Vance is currently 48 percent to Tim Ryan’s 44.3 percent, a good-enough lead heading into the final weekend. In Pennsylvania, the polling averages come out to almost a tie, with Mehmet Oz at 47 percent and John Fetterman at 46.9 percent.

If you set the threshold of reelection or victory at, say, 48 percent, Republicans would keep Ohio and Wisconsin, flip Nevada, Georgia, and New Hampshire, and finish with 52 seats, with Pennsylvania neck-and-neck.

If we apply that same “incumbents below 50 percent are in trouble” rule to the governor’s races, the Democratic incumbent who can breathe easiest is Jared Polis at 52.7 percent. It may disappoint Republicans to find New York’s Kathy Hochul at 50.6 percent, with GOP challenger Lee Zeldin at 44.4 percent. Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer is at exactly 50 percent.

Beyond that, the outlook is grim for incumbent Democratic governors. New Mexico’s Michelle Lujan Grisham is at 48 percent, as is Minnesota’s Tim Walz. Wisconsin’s Democratic governor Tony Evers is at 47.6 percent, and Nevada’s Democratic governor Steve Sisolak seems to be in real trouble at 44.7 percent.

Among the incumbent Republican governors, Chris Sununu of New Hampshire is at 56.5 percent, Mike DeWine of Ohio is at 56 percent, Florida’s Ron DeSantis is at 53.3 percent, Georgia’s Brian Kemp is at 51.9 percent, and Texas’s Greg Abbott is at 51.6 percent. (Several states, such as Iowa and South Dakota, don’t have enough recent polls from which RCP can calculate a meaningful average.)