Something funny is happening with the much-hyped “blue wave” on the way to the fall midterms. That wave of Democratic candidates that is supposed to sweep away the Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives? The one that the press and pundits have been predicting for months? One would almost think the steady narrative of a blue wave is an attempt at psychological warfare by the mainstream media and the Left in hopes of depressing Republican donors and voters into thinking the outcome is a foregone conclusion.
But that narrative is completely detached from reality. The numbers now tell a different story.
Democrats entered 2018 with a double-digit lead in the congressional generic ballot, upwards of 15 points in some polls. Yet somehow in May, their lead in the RealClearPolitics average has shrunk to just four points. In some generic polls, such as the Reuters survey, the Democrats’ lead has disappeared entirely. In fact, in the most recent Reuters’ poll, Republicans are up more than six points generically.
Democrats right now are in a position mirrored almost exactly in May 2014, when they held a one-to-four-point lead on most generic ballots. Remember what happened? Democrats lost 13 seats.
Unmistakably, the dynamics of 2018 are different. President Trump is a volatile and polarizing figure. Moreover, nearly 40 Republican incumbents—including House Speaker Paul Ryan—are retiring. And every race is subject to contingency and local events.
A Tea Party Precedent?
Nevertheless, as we consider the “great and awesome” blue wave in 2018, it’s worth remembering the Tea Party wave of 2010. That year, 85 percent of House incumbents won. Put in perspective, that supposed seismic election was the worst reelection average for House incumbents in the last 40 years. It’s not unusual in most off-year midterms for incumbents to have a 94-98 percent re-election rate. In fact, the average reelection rate for U.S. House incumbents since World War II has been 93 percent.