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The abrupt termination of Israel’s 21st Parliament with new elections being called for 17 September has seen the New York Times claiming that Israel has been plunged into unprecedented political chaos.
A more sober assessment – based on comparing Israel’s 2015 election results with the April 2019 results – provides a different picture – in which Prime Minister Netanyahu will be returned once again as Israel’s next Prime Minister.
In an earlier article written in March, I opined:
“The cards have certainly been stacked against Benjamin Netanyahu being Israel’s next Prime Minister after three recent major developments — but he is by no means down and out.”
Those developments were:
Israeli Attorney-General Avichai Mandelblit’s decision to pursue Netanyahu for alleged criminal offences.
Three political parties coalescing into the Blue and White Party — promising that two of the three previous leaders — former Chief of Staff Benny Gantz and Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid — would each be Prime Minister for half of the next Government’s term of office.
Netanyahu’s role in precipitating a marriage of convenience between Jewish Home, National Union and an extreme right-wing party Otzma Yehudit with alleged links to the assassinated Rabbi Meir Kahane’s banned political party Kach
I pointed out then that:
“The 2015 election results provide a useful guide as to the likely impact these three developments might have on Netanyahu’s chances:
the Likud Party only received 23.4% of the vote—hardly a ringing endorsement for Netanyahu and
72% of those eligible voted—very high when compared to America’s 58.1%.
Likud’s low supporter-base seems unlikely to desert Netanyahu.
Voter turnout would have to increase dramatically or huge swings away from other right-wing parties would be needed to give Blue and White the nod needed to be invited by President Rivlin to form a coalition Government ahead of Netanyahu.
The unknown elephants in the room are the number of terrorist attacks and international political developments affecting Israel in the next five weeks that will concentrate voters’ minds — when actually casting their votes – on who can best safeguard their personal safety and Israel’s security.
Netanyahu is certainly not out of the race”.