https://amgreatness.com/2025/01/14/la-fires-illustrate-a-nationwide-competency-crisis/
Los Angeles is burning, and the raging fires appear to be some of the worst in recent memory. Entire neighborhoods, fancy and regular alike, have burned to the ground. Harrowing video of people trapped in their homes convey some of the human cost of the fires and foretell the inevitable deaths that will be confirmed in the weeks ahead.
There are a surprising number of obstacles challenging the emergency response, considering that we are supposed to live in a first-world country. Fire hydrants ran dry for reasons not yet fully explained, and there were cuts to statewide firefighting budgets in advance of the fires. It now appears that the ongoing homelessness crisis in Los Angeles was a harbinger of third-world conditions across the board.
The political leadership also leaves a lot to be desired. Governor Gavin Newsom shrugged and pinned empty hydrants on locals. In spite of extreme risk warnings, the Los Angeles mayor was away on an overseas junket and went catatonic when reporters asked her some basic questions about events. She is now back and facing sustained criticism from her erstwhile supporters.
Multiple Failure Points Contributed to Disaster
There are lots of theories about what went wrong, and everyone is reaching for their well-worn hobby horses. Some say it’s affirmative action destroying once-competent institutions. Others blame generic incompetence and mismanagement.
Another factor may be changing patterns of home building. Apparently, building on the hills and in the canyons—which are periodically subject to fires—is inherently risky. The recent dry spell, coupled with heavy winds, only made things worse.
Finally, at least some of the fires appear to be a result of arson, whether by the mentally ill or the malevolent.
My intuition is to blame all of these things in combination. While I do not know enough to have a strong opinion about the relative weight of one cause versus another, I start with the prejudice that most failures in life arise from systemic failures, which themselves result from the accumulation of smaller errors similar to the stacking of tolerances in engineering.
A well-designed system can withstand incompetent executives, some affirmative action appointees, and even a shortfall in funding for one year. But most systems cannot withstand all of these things, year after year, which seems to be the unifying factor in Los Angeles’ current predicament.