http://frontpagemag.com/2012/dgreenfield/what-the-war-on-terror-will-look-like-in-2030/print/
“The Western leaders of 2012, like their ancient Roman counterparts, have come to admire the virtues of the savage more than the virtues of their own civilization. By 2030 it will be clearer than ever whether the outcome of their halfhearted campaigns to civilize the savages with doses of democracy and civic institutions will have led to civilized savages or the savaging of civilizations.Is this world of 2030 inevitable? Not at all, but considering current trends and policies, it is a far more likely outcome than the end of Islamic terrorism.”
In time for Christmas, the National Intelligence Council is predicting that Islamic terrorism will come to an end by 2030. And that seems reasonable. What room will there be for headchopping barbarians in the enlightened world of tomorrow where food comes in pill form, flying cars take you around the country in a minute and everyone follows international law? By 2034, the last murder will have taken place and by 2042, a scientific cure will be found for crime. By 2051, even bad thoughts will have been eliminated.
In the real world, by 2030, there will be countless emirates, many no more than small terrorist groups, but some of which control sizable territories. Mali shows us how a dedicated Islamist militia backed by oil money can create its own Afghanistan. And once it has its emirate, then like any good bunch of robber barons, the Islamist militia will take a cut of the drug trade, kidnap foreigners for ransom and shake down the international community for foreign aid.
By 2030 there will be a hundred miniature Afghanistans across Africa and the Middle East, with peacekeeping forces composed of a combination of local militaries and NATO troops trying to push them out. There will be drones over the skies of a hundred deserts fighting Toyota pickup trucks with bands of hooded men firing machine guns. There will be wire transfers from a dozen Islamic finance institutions wending their way from the great oil economies of the Persian Gulf, and American soldiers, most of whom will have more in common with the special forces operator than the infantryman, who have never seen a conventional war fought in their lifetime, heading in on another rescue mission in the territory of a Terror Emirate.