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FOREIGN POLICY

Biden’s Two-Faced Agenda on Turkey by Burak Bekdil

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17987/biden-agenda-turkey

Since the summer, everything on the Washington-Ankara axis seems to have gone wrong.

Is Biden the champion of human rights and universal democratic values that he claims he is? Or is he an unpleasant cheat with a disappointing fake democratic agenda?

U.S. President Joe Biden’s increasingly hypocritical policy on NATO’s increasingly difficult ally, Turkey, is badly zig-zagging between the U.S. leader’s self-declared advocacy for universal democratic values and Biden’s secret agenda, which he prefers dishonestly to hide: appeasing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan behind closed doors and condemning Turkey’s democratic deficit in public. In less than two years Biden has swung from a pledge to oust Turkey’s autocratic leader to appeasing him behind closed doors.

In a December 2019 interview, then-presidential candidate Biden said that Erdoğan should be ousted from power through a democratic process and that support for the opposition was crucial. Turkey’s human rights record has gone downhill from there. The Council of Europe has said that if Turkish courts keep ignoring rulings from the European Court of Human Rights, it would start infringement proceedings against Turkey at the end of November.

All the same, on October 31, Biden and Erdoğan apparently had a 70-minute meeting in a “very positive atmosphere” on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Rome. They reportedly agreed to form a joint mechanism to improve ties. “During the meeting,” an Erdoğan aide told this author, “Biden’s lecture on human rights did not exceed two minutes.” It seems that a U.S. delegation will soon arrive in Ankara to work on that joint mechanism.

Iran Has Biden’s Nuclear Number Tehran wants a ‘less for more’ deal that would be weaker than Obama’s.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-has-biden-nuclear-number-antony-blinken-robert-malley-jake-sullivan-bomb-jcpoa-deal-11636487314?mod=opinion_lead_pos3

The Iran nuclear talks resume on Monday in Austria, and pessimism seems to be the order of the day. Iran refuses to make concessions, while the U.S. is signaling that its patience may be limited. But don’t underestimate the Biden Administration’s desire for a deal—any deal.

For months the U.S. has been all but begging Iran to return to the table, though the U.S. won’t literally even be at the table in Vienna. Iran refuses to talk to the U.S. directly, so American negotiators must work through European intermediaries. The U.S. seems undeterred by this intentional humiliation.

Since Iran walked away from talks earlier this year, Tehran has elevated an even more hardline president and accelerated its enrichment of nuclear fuel. Iran has also continued to restrict international inspectors’ access to its nuclear sites. Rafael Mariano Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, reported last week that talks about verification have “proved inconclusive”—diplomatic-speak for they failed.

Uranium particles found at three locations that Iran hasn’t declared to the agency are cause for alarm. Mr. Grossi said this “is a clear indication that nuclear material and/or equipment contaminated by nuclear material has been present at these locations.” The U.S. and its European allies have declined to censure Iran for refusing to cooperate.

They’re hoping the talks will yield concessions, perhaps with the inducement of more U.S. sanctions relief. Iranian diplomats are demanding that any deal will remain in force beyond President Biden’s tenure. And they won’t commit to anything beyond a return to the 2015 deal struck by President Obama. That deal allowed Iran sufficient leeway to advance on the path to a weapon with limited inspections, which is why Donald Trump withdrew in 2018.

Who Keeps Iran Out in the Cold? by Amir Taheri

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17979/iran-in-the-cold

The argument [to bring Iran “in from the cold”] is that the Islamic Republic is behaving badly because, “excluded” from the outside world, it feels like a threatened lone wolf and thus obliged to adopt an aggressive posture.

The most persistent peddlers of that bill of goods have been US President Barack Obama and his Secretary of State John Kerry. It is their efforts that President Joe Biden and his Secretary of State Antony Blinken seem determined to resume.

But how true is the “exclusion” theory with regard to the Islamic Republic?

The answer is: not at all.

Far from trying to “exclude” the Islamic Republic almost every country, first among them the United States, have often gone out of their way to include and accommodate Tehran’s new rulers. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s seizure of power was instantly accepted by all members of the United Nations.

The US was even in a hurry to curry favor with Tehran’s new rulers.

The Carter administration quickly named Lloyd Cutler, the presidential legal advisor, as the ambassador-designate to Tehran and ordered the shipment of arms to Iran to be resumed. What happened was “self-exclusion” as a Khomeinist gang, with a nod and a wink from the Ayatollah, raided the US Embassy in Tehran and took its diplomats hostage.

“By the mid-1970s, Iran had a well-educated and motivated corps of nuclear scientists who, backed by substantial financial resources from the government, undertook research into all aspects of the new technology, including its military applications.” — Ardeshir Zahedi, former Foreign Minister of Iran, Wall Street Journal, June 25, 2004.

As the Biden administration prepares for the revival, in some form at least, of the controversial “nuclear deal” with the Islamic Republic of Iran, the usual suspects in Washington are peddling an old theme: Bringing Iran in from the cold!

The argument is that the Islamic Republic is behaving badly because, “excluded” from the outside world, it feels like a threatened lone wolf and thus obliged to adopt an aggressive posture.

To Biden Admin: Do Not Give Away US Leverage Against Iran by Majid Rafizadeh

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17969/us-leverage-iran

Since the Biden administration evidently is insisting on negotiating with a predatory regime such as Iran, at least it should not enter the negotiations from a position of weakness.

The Biden administration needs to understand that the Iranian regime is desperate for the revival of the nuclear deal due to the significant financial and sanctions relief that the JCPOA offers the ruling clerics.

Iran’s state-controlled Arman-e-Meli newspaper surprisingly acknowledged on November 20, 2021: “No country, neither China nor Russia, will be able to save our economy. We must try to lift the sanctions. The way out of the internal pressures and the heavy (bad) economic situation is to get rid of the issue of sanctions and it will be solved with the JCPOA.”

Iran’s mullahs particularly love the nuclear deal because of its fundamental flaws, especially the sunset clauses that remove restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program after the deal soon expires. The nuclear deal, rather than preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, as it was falsely touted to do, in fact paves the way for Tehran to become a legitimized nuclear state.

The Iranian regime will be resuming “nuclear talks” with the P5+1 (the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China plus Germany) next week. It is crucial that the Biden administration not give away the leverage that the former administration built against the Islamic Republic through sanctions. The deal is not yet dead: the Biden administration and the EU are still trying to resurrect it.

China and Russia, because of their shared geopolitical, strategic and economic interests, are likely to align themselves with Iran’s leaders and their demands. Iran’s new president, Ebrahim Raisi, recently spoke with his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, regarding the upcoming nuclear talks and the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). China, Russia, and the Islamic Republic, according to a statement released by the Chinese government, have apparently already reached “a broad consensus” on the deal

Since the Biden administration evidently is insisting on negotiating with a predatory regime such as Iran, at least it should not enter the negotiations from a position of weakness.

The sleepwalkers in the South China Sea David P. Goldman

https://www.weltwoche.ch/amp/2021-47/weltwoche-international/wi-taiwan-die-weltwoche-ausgabe-47-2021.html

Taiwan’s integration into the mainland is a raison d’état for the Chinese regime. The ghosts of 1914 haunt the Pacific.

With just 24 million people, Taiwan is smaller than several Chinese cities. It has one of the world’s lowest fertility rates—much lower than mainland China. Its population under the age of 60 will fall by half during the next 40 years, according to UN projections, and every 100 workers will support 85 pensioners. That is unsustainable. Migration from the mainland is inevitable, and with it the eventual reintegration of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China—unless the US and China go to war over the island.

Taiwan might be the Sarajevo of the 21st century. In some ways the comparison seems absurd. Serbia’s rapidly population growth directed its land hunger towards neighboring Serbia, while Russia incited Serbia against the Dual Monarchy in its long rivalry with the German cultural sphere. Taiwan by contrast has a dwindling population and a shared culture with the Mainland. A million Taiwanese work in the mainland and Taiwanese companies have invested some $60 billion in mainland industries.

Nonetheless former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has compared the sharpening of US-Chinese rivalry to the months prior to August 1914, and Admiral James Stavridis, the former head of the US Pacific Command, earlier this year published a novel depicting a US-Chinese nuclear exchange after naval battles in which China sinks a US aircraft carrier. The US and China “will likely find themselves in a full-blown, Cold War-like status in the near future…could this lead the two nations to a hot war? Even a nuclear exchange? Unfortunately, the answer is yes,” Stavridis wrote March 9 in Time Magazine.

The danger lies in a deep asymmetry of perceived interests.

Europe’s Migrant Crisis Demonstrates Biden’s Weakness by Con Coughlin

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17956/europe-migrant-crisis-biden

Mr Xi’s confidence that he has nothing to fear from Mr Biden was clearly reflected in the patronising tone he adopted towards the US leader from the outset of their three-and-a-half hour meeting, referring to Mr Biden as his “old friend”, when he is clearly no such thing.

By contrast Mr Biden proved unwilling to raise any issues that might prove uncomfortable for the Chinese leader, such as Beijing’s role in causing the Covid-19 pandemic that has wrought havoc throughout the world.

The Russian autocrat [Putin] is also well aware of Mr Biden’s weak disposition as a result of the three-hour summit the two leaders attended in Geneva last June, the most notable outcome being the American President’s utter capitulation to Moscow on long-standing arms control demands.

Consequently, the only winners from Europe’s latest migrant crisis are likely to be Mr Putin and his thuggish Belarusian ally….

Nothing better illustrates the ability of rogue states to take advantage of Joe Biden’s pitifully weak leadership than the role Belarusian despot Alexander Lukashenko has played in creating a migrant crisis in the heart of Europe.

As Mr Biden’s unimpressive performance during his recent video summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping has graphically demonstrated, the US leader appears increasingly out of his depth on the world stage, to the extent that Washington’s adversaries see Mr Biden’s weakness as working to their advantage.

Don’t Let China Overshadow the Russia Threat BY Lawrence J. Haas

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/dont-let-china-overshadow-russia-threat-196596

Even at this extremely polarized time in Washington, a bipartisan consensus continues to grow that China now represents the biggest threat to the United States.

President Joe Biden is implementing a “pivot to Asia” that President Barack Obama first enunciated, inking a new U.S. alliance with Britain and Australia that will help the latter deploy nuclear-powered submarines in the Pacific. Meanwhile, as Biden and China’s Xi Jinping prepared to chat this week, the House Armed Services Committee’s top Republican, Mike Rogers, called China’s Communist Party “the greatest threat to our nation today.”

Currently, however, some of the world’s most dangerous flashpoints emanate not from China but from Russia. They remind us that—while we must address China’s multifaceted efforts to supplant America as the world’s leading power—we also need to retain our focus on Russia’s machinations under the leadership of its strongman president, Vladimir Putin.

Putin has sent nearly one hundred thousand Russian troops to its border with Ukraine, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, setting off alarm bells in Washington and Europe that he’s planning to invade.

The alarm bells are particularly loud for at least two reasons. First, Russia has attacked Ukraine before, most prominently in 2014 when it annexed the Crimean Peninsula, triggering sanctions against Russia by the United States, European Union (EU), other countries, and international organizations.

Second, Russia’s present troop surge dwarfs its surge to the border of last spring, which also alarmed Washington and Europe. Putin later sent some of those troops back to their bases, easing concerns at that time, but Washington is now worried that—in the words of Congressman Mike Turner, a Republican on the House Armed Services and Intelligence committees—“Russia has different intentions this time.”

Group Biden Removed From Terror List Storms U.S. Embassy in Yemen, Takes Hostages The high cost of Biden’s appeasement policy. Robert Spencer

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2021/11/group-biden-removed-terror-list-storms-us-embassy-robert-spencer/

Isn’t great that America is back and the adults are back in charge? America is back, all right: all the way back to 1979, the last time we had a president so weak that enemies of the United States stormed one of our embassies and took hostages. On Thursday, the Yemeni media outlet Al-Masdar Online reported that Houthi jihadis in Yemen, which are backed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, stormed our embassy in Sana’a, seizing “large quantities of equipment and materials.” Just days before that, according to the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), they “kidnapped three Yemeni nationals affiliated with the U.S. Embassy.” Biden’s team promised America would be back, but didn’t say anything about Jimmy Carter coming around again as well.

A State Department spokesman confirmed the Yemeni report, saying: “The United States has been unceasing in its diplomatic efforts to secure their release. The majority of the detained have been released, but the Houthis continue to detain additional Yemeni employees of the embassy.” They are being “detained without explanation and we call for their immediate release.” The U.S., the spokesman continued, is “concerned about the breach of the compound” and is calling “on the Houthis to immediately vacate it and return all seized property.”

Yeah, I’ll bet the Houthis are shaking with fear now. Because Biden’s handlers are really going all out on this one: deploying the Navy? Sending in the Marines? Immediately imposing crippling sanctions? Come on, man! The Biden team, said the State wonk, “will continue its diplomatic efforts to secure the release of our staff and the vacating of our compound, including through our international partners.” That’ll show ‘em.

Iran – the anti-US ripple effect Ambassador (Ret.) Yoram Ettinger

https://bit.ly/3wQd3ZO

The ripple effect theory

An underlying assumption behind any US agreement with Iran’s Ayatollahs is that the Ayatollahs would utilize the resulting financial and diplomatic bonanza for butter rather than guns.

Moreover, it is assumed that Iran’s Ayatollahs are amenable to good-faith negotiation and peaceful-coexistence.  

These assumptions have been quashed by the systematic, rogue, non-compliant and anti-US track record of the Ayatollahs since their violent ascension to power in 1978/79, and especially by their use of the $150bn bonanza showered upon them by the 2015 JCPOA (nuclear accord): intensified regional and global subversion, terrorism, wars, drug trafficking, and the development, manufacturing and proliferation of ballistic technologies.

In fact, the Ayatollahs’ Constitution requires “the uninterrupted process of the revolution of Islam.”

Furthermore, the assumption that the threats posed by the rogue regime in Teheran is limited to the Persian Gulf and the larger Middle East ignores the ripple effect reality.
Thus, just as a single pebble thrown into a puddle creates a series of ripples throughout the puddle, the eruption of a single local conflict in the Middle East – especially when driven by a 1,400-year-old fanatic, imperialistic, Islamic vision – triggers a series of violent ripples throughout the global puddle. Moreover, a limited-size wave of violence, driven by a megalomaniacal vision – which is accommodated and negotiated rather than crushed – is bound to spark a series of violent waves, evolving into a mega-size lethal wave, which may sweep many regions of the world.

The Iran-driven ripple effects are well-documented in the Persian Gulf, Middle East, Central Asia, Africa, Europe, Latin and North America. Ignoring the Iranian ripple effects is bound to undermine the US homeland and national security.

Peace-processing Like it’s 1993 Note to Dennis Ross: The world has changed since the signing of the Oslo Accords. Shoshana Bryen

https://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/insight/

In a meeting in May with then-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Joe Biden’s Secretary of State Antony Blinken outlined the Biden administration priority “to continue to rebuild our relationship with the Palestinian people and the Palestinian Authority.” Now, after announcing it wants to open a U.S. consulate in Jerusalem for the Palestinians, come reports that the administration is working on a plan for a Palestinian “unity government” of Hamas and Fatah to negotiate the “two-state solution” with Israel.

Veteran “peace processor” Dennis Ross wrote the long rationale, including his belief that Israel has to bow in the direction of the anti-Israel progressive “Squad” and “woke” on Capitol Hill:

“Israel cannot ignore the Palestinian issue for its own reasons—the Palestinians aren’t going anywhere. But with an evolving political landscape in the U.S., Israel needs to show it is not deepening occupation and is not acting in a way that makes a two-state outcome impossible, even as an option. Drifting toward a one-state outcome in which Palestinians will demand one person, one vote is certain to extend the influence of progressives far beyond where it stands today … . Israel must also deal with the reality that how it approaches the Palestinians will affect how it is seen in the U.S.”  Dennis Ross

Ross also notes that the Palestinians are “divided and show neither the inclination nor capability to adjust any of their positions.” He doesn’t elaborate, and that is his mistake. Hamas and Fatah have been fighting a bloody civil war since 2007—Hamas’s rocket war in May was aimed as much as establishing itself as the more powerful Palestinian faction as it was at Israel. Constructive engagement between Hamas and Fatah is a fantasy.