Displaying posts categorized under

FOREIGN POLICY

The long war of strategy in the Middle East by David Wurmser

https://centerforsecuritypolicy.org/the-long-war-of-strategy-in-the-middle-east/

The United States and Israel disagree about who will rule Gaza in the “day after” scenario. The United States seeks to install a refurbished Palestinian Authority and proceed happily toward a two-state solution. Israel’s “day after” plan is unclear and may not yet even have crystallized. It is difficult, thus, to comment on Israel’s approach, but one thing is certain: the plan to rehabilitate the Palestinian Authority as a government will fail.  And neither for the commonly understood reasons of its unpopularity and incompetence born of corruption nor for its inability to rise above its terror pedigree. It is because the very idea of the Palestinian Authority as a solution to the Hamas challenge is based on concepts divorced from a Middle Eastern context.

To understand the problem with our approach, we must begin with our bafflement over why deterrence failed and Hamas even started this war.  Moreover, why does Hamas still think it is winning? Why did it invite its own destruction and why does it not see it as its own destruction?

One of the greatest barriers Westerners have in understanding the region is our deep appreciation for structures and words as institutions.  In the West, institutions have a life of their own, and the possessors of office – a tangible concept in the West – are merely trustees.  A leader or office-holder is only a steward of a trust whose job is to protect the interests of the trust. It is not about him; he will be judged entirely on whether he strengthened or damaged the stature and well-being of the institution during his stewardship. As Westerners we place great faith in the solidity of structures and words as institutions.

But such solidity does not exist in the Middle East. Institutions are extensions of personal relationships. They lack a life of their own. Even on issues of succession in government, arrangements perish with the ruler.  When the founding prophet of Islam, Muhammad, died, the tribes met in Mecca to name a replacement, whom they did – Abu Bakr in 632 AD.  And yet, despite the “office” of leader’s having passed to Abu Bakr, he was promptly confronted with challenges, even war, by many of those who ostensibly supported him. The pledged unity of the various factions and tribes to Muhammad and the community of Islam melted away.

Biden Administration’s ‘Pathway’ to a Palestinian Terror State by Bassam Tawil

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20317/biden-administration-palestinian-terror-state

By continuing to obsessively stick to the creation of a Palestinian state, the Biden administration is actually sending a message to Iran and its terror proxies that terrorism pays – that if they inflict more pain and casualties on Israel, the Americans will reward them with a state of their own next to Israel to facilitate their mission of continuing their Jihadist murder spree against Jews and finally obliterate Israel.

The poll further showed that if presidential elections were held today, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh would receive 78% of the vote, as opposed to only 16% for Abbas.

The poll found that 64% of the Palestinians oppose the idea of a two-state solution, while 53% support a return to the “armed struggle” against Israel.

All polls conducted by the same center have consistently shown that a majority of the Palestinians believe that Hamas is more deserving of representing them than the PA. This means that if and when a Palestinian state is established, as the Biden administration is hoping, it will be ruled by Hamas and its masters in Iran… overlooking the few miles from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv and Israel’s Ben Gurion International Airport.

The idea that creating another Arab state alongside Israel would “isolate” or “marginalize” Iran and its proxies is as wrong as it is dangerous. In reality, the establishment of a Palestinian state on any part of the West Bank or Gaza Strip would incentivize Iran and its clients to escalate their Jihad against Israel: it would send them the message that the more Jews you murder, the more land you get.

[T]his conflict is not about a settlement or a checkpoint or Jerusalem, but about Israel’s right to exist in any form in the Middle East. What Blinken and the Biden administration seem unable to grasp is that there are still too many people among the Palestinians, and many other Arabs and Muslims, who have yet to come to terms with the right of a nation that is not Islamic to remain in its home in the Middle East.

Blinken is suggesting not a pathway to peace, but a prize to Hamas and the Palestinians for committing genocide.

Joe Biden and Bob Casey Fail the Israel Test Watching videos of Hamas atrocities reinforced my opposition to their policy of appeasing Iran. By David McCormick

https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-biden-and-bob-casey-fail-the-israel-test-gaza-hamas-pennsylvania-senate-ca1056bb?mod=opinion_lead_pos7

Mr. McCormick, a combat veteran and former CEO of Bridgewater Associates, is a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania.

You could hear the demented joy through the phone. A young man standing in the Mefalsim kibbutz called his parents back in Gaza to brag about murdering 10 Jews on Oct. 7. They were elated.

That was but one episode in a gut-wrenching 47-minute compilation of recordings and videos from that horrific day that I watched in a Tel Aviv hospital during a recent trip with my wife, Dina, to Israel. A father executed in cold blood in front of his children. Entire families burned alive in their homes. Women staggering and bleeding through their clothes after being raped. Beheadings. Baby after baby, slaughtered. It isn’t possible to watch this footage without concluding Hamas must be wiped off the face of the planet.

The footage should be a wake-up call for those in power and mandatory viewing for every member of Congress, Biden administration official, and delegate to the United Nations. It’s a window into the evil underlying Hamas, and jihadism more broadly, that will shake any leader with a conscience.

Some of America’s leaders need to be shaken. Thus far, Israel has counted on bipartisan U.S. support, but the chorus of Democratic dissenters is growing louder, influenced by pro-Hamas activists in our streets. Sen. Bernie Sanders has called to cut off all military aid to Israel, while other Democrats are insisting on a cease-fire that would leave Hamas in charge in Gaza.

Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program is Accelerating Because of Joe Biden As we approach the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the Middle East will become more unstable, and Iran will get closer to having a nuclear weapon. Fred Fleitz

https://amgreatness.com/2024/01/05/irans-nuclear-weapons-program-is-accelerating-because-of-joe-biden/

According to a new International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report, Iran increased the rate of its production of near weapons-grade uranium (60% uranium-235) in late November 2023. This increase ended a slowdown of Iran’s 60% uranium enrichment that began in mid-2023 and increased the number of nuclear weapons it could theoretically make and the amount of time to construct them.

Iran’s recent ramp-up of uranium enrichment followed warnings last year that the number of nuclear weapons Iran could construct has become dangerously high.

A March 2023 assessment report by the Institute for Science and International Security indicated that Iran could enrich enough weapons-grade uranium (90% uranium-235) for one nuclear weapon in 12 days. In mid-November, the Institute assessed Iran was capable of making enough weapons-grade uranium “for six nuclear weapons in one month, eight in two months, ten in three months, eleven in four months, and twelve in five months.”

Iran enriching uranium beyond the 60% level is reportedly a red line for Israel and could trigger Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Although it is not clear whether or when Iran will make the jump to weapons-grade enrichment, alarms were raised in mid-November that Iran has taken steps to prevent the IAEA from detecting just such a move when it barred the agency’s most experienced and expert inspectors from entering the country. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi called this “a serious blow” to his agency’s capability to conduct meaningful inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities.

This means Iran could start enriching uranium to weapons-grade at any time without being detected.

If Iran took this step, any weapons-grade uranium it enriched would be in the form of a gaseous uranium compound that would need to be processed into uranium metal to fuel a nuclear weapon. This would take about a year. Iran would probably conduct one or two underground nuclear tests before adding a nuclear weapon to its arsenal. Any one of these moves could trigger Israeli airstrikes.

An Enormous Biden National Security Failure

The most damning element of this story is that Iran did not begin enriching uranium to near-weapons grade until Joe Biden became president.

US Lack of Resolve Incentivizing China on Taiwan by Lawrence Franklin

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20273/us-lack-of-resolve

Bluntly put, the nations of the Free World have allowed global commerce to be held hostage by the revolutionary group of theocrat terrorists in Iran and their tribal terrorist tool in Yemen.

The primary problem seems to be that so far at least, there has been no attempt to hold the ringleader, Iran, accountable economically, militarily, hold-on-power or any way. This, incidentally, is the same Iranian regime that has lately escalated its enrichment of uranium to near-nuclear weapons capability, and has now moved a warship to the Red Sea.

That is why the Iranian regime has proxies: so that they will do the dirty work and take the hits — while the Iranians tuck into dinner.

You can be sure that Communist China’s leaders are closely evaluating the inadequate US responses to more than 100 attacks on US forces in Syria and Iraq — just since October.

America’s role as guarantor of global freedom of navigation and defender of “Law of the Sea” treaties is taking a hit. The Biden administration continues to dither rather than to act decisively in liquidating the capability of Iran’s proxy, the Yemeni Houthis, who have been effectively blocking passage of commercial ships in and out of the Red Sea, decimating traffic through the Suez Canal. The December 31 counterattack by US naval helicopter gunships, which sank three Houthi attack boats, was a good start but did not solve the problem.

The US military’s Central Command reported that, since November 19, the Houthis have attacked 23 ships. This Iran-backed assault has caused several of the world’s largest shipping companies to suspend voyages through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, a route that normally enables the passage of 30% of the world’s container traffic, 9.2 billion barrels of oil a day, and 4% of the shipping of natural gas.

The shipping giants that are pausing normal operations as a result of Houthi attacks may also be illustrating serious failing confidence in US pledges to protect freedom of navigation in the region. Ships are being forced to haul cargo in a detour around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, a route that lengthens their voyage by about 6,000 nautical miles.

The Islamic Republic of Iran, the Houthis’ patron, closed out 2023 by launching its seventh drone attack on December 24 on a Japanese-owned freighter in the Indian Ocean.

Bluntly put, the nations of the Free World have allowed global commerce to be held hostage by the revolutionary group of theocrat terrorists in Iran and their tribal terrorist tool in Yemen.

Biden Panders to His Far-Left Base, Hangs Up On Netanyahu Robert Spencer

https://pjmedia.com/robert-spencer/2023/12/30/biden-panders-to-his-far-left-base-hangs-up-on-netanyahu-n4925110

As 2024 fast approaches, Old Joe Biden is facing some serious obstacles to keep on pretending to be president until he is older than nearly three-quarters of our presidents were when they died. One of the most serious of these is that his far-left base, having been thoroughly miseducated to hate America and all that it stands for, also hates one of its staunchest allies, Israel, and is outraged that the Biden regime appears to be standing by the Jewish state. But Rashida Tlaib and her pals need not be concerned: in a bid to keep these Marxists in line and pulling the Biden lever, Old Joe just made a big push to keep their support.

The Daily Caller reported Saturday that the addled and aging corruptocrat “reportedly hung up on Prime Minister Netanyahu after a heated phone call about the Palestinian tax revenue dispute.” News of this latest embarrassment comes from “two U.S. and Israeli officials and a source with knowledge of the issue.” No one seems to be saying that Old Joe, in the fog of his galloping dementia, mistook Netanyahu for an annoyingly persistent telemarketer, so apparently the hang-up was entirely intentional.

The dispute revolves around the fact that “amid the Israel-Hamas war, the Israeli government has refused to release some tax revenues it collects for the Palestinian Authority that it says would go to the terrorist group Hamas.”

It’s understandable that such hesitation would anger Old Joe. After all, the Biden regime has never hesitated to shovel money to the Palestinians, without any regard for the possibility that it could end up in the hands of Hamas. The alleged president demonstrated, for anyone who was paying attention, which side he is really on when he went over to Israel in late October and met with Netanyahu. He took the opportunity to announce that he was giving $100 million to Gaza, which meant, regardless of his warnings that Hamas better not grab the money, that it would end up in Hamas’ coffers. There was no entity in Gaza that was not controlled by Hamas and that could both receive this money and keep it out of the hands of the terror group.

Upcoming U.S. Presidential Election Could Fuel Global Instability in 2024 By Fred Fleitz

https://amgreatness.com/2023/12/29/upcoming-u-s-presidential-election-could-fuel-global-instability-in-2024/

A failed, last-minute visit to Mexico by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas this week perfectly reflected the Biden Administration’s dismal foreign policy record in 2023 and what may lie ahead in 2024.

Blinken and Mayorkas traveled to Mexico City to meet with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to discuss how to stem the surge in illegal migrants crossing into the United States from Mexico. But instead of offering constructive proposals to address this crisis, López Obrador mocked Blinken and Mayorkas by dismissing the border crisis as a U.S. problem, called for opening border crossings, and urged the U.S. to strengthen its ties with Cuba and Venezuela.

This latest Biden Administration foreign policy debacle reflected how world leaders increasingly view Joe Biden as a weak and indecisive leader with an incompetent foreign policy. This debacle also reflected the incompetence of Biden’s foreign policy team because López Obrador was allowed to ambush Blinken and Mayorkas. A competent state department would have ensured this visit was a scripted affair, with differences between each country resolved privately and in advance during lower-level meetings.

Blinken and Mayorkas traveling to Mexico without knowing what López Obrador would offer was a rookie mistake one would expect during the first few months of a new U.S. administration, not from one that has been in office for almost three years.

The outcome of the Blinken/Mayorkas Mexico trip and Biden’s refusal to implement serious measures to stem the flow of illegal migrants crossing the U.S. southern border will have major security implications for the United States in 2024. Given a growing perception that Biden may be a one-term president who will be succeeded in January 2025 by a new president who will take aggressive action to close the border, the United States will likely see the largest surge of illegal immigration in history in 2024 as migrants from around the world rush to Mexico to take advantage of Biden’s weak border security policies.

Three Things the Biden Administration Must Do Now to Stop Iran’s Mullahs by Majid Rafizadeh

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20241/stop-irans-mullahs

If the Biden administration thought that by rescuing Iran’s economy, which had hit bottom, and removing the Houthis from the list of Foreign Terror Organizations would make both Iran into an ally, the generosity appears to have backfired.

If the Iranian regime is allowed to advance to nuclear weapons capability, it will be on course finally to drive the US out of the region; threaten its oil-rich neighbors; destabilize Europe; deploy military assets in Venezuela and Cuba, and, at last, come for the “Great Satan,” the United States.

It must be made unmistakably clear to Iran that the United States will not allow Iran’s current regime, a designated state sponsor of terrorism, to arm itself with nuclear weapons and emerge as yet another global nuclear threat in the Middle East, Europe and South America.

The Biden administration’s policies of placating the ruling mullahs of Iran and their proxy, Yemen’s Houthis, have clearly failed. If the Biden administration thought that by rescuing Iran’s economy, which had hit bottom, and removing the Houthis from the list of Foreign Terror Organizations would make both Iran into an ally, the generosity appears to have backfired. Iran’s regime financed and helped plan the invasion of the invasion of Israel by Hamas, which is another Iranian proxy. Iran has been arming the Houthis to target US and its allies in the region, and disrupt the shipping in the Red Sea, and Iran’s militias in Syria and Iraq have fired on US troops more than 100 times just since October 17.

It is only the warships that the Biden administration helpfully placed in the Eastern Mediterranean that have most likely deterred yet another Iranian proxy, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, from further escalating their attacks on Israel’s north. The Iranian regime has become disruptive to the highest level since the Iran-Iraq war, and unfortunately, due to what seems a hugely misguided security paralysis in Washington D.C, shows no signs of letting up.

Does Biden Want Israel to Lose the War? by Robert Williams

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20244/biden-israel-lose-war

Have any demands been made on Hamas’s patrons, Iran and Qatar, to tell their Hamas beneficiaries to stop? Have any demands been made on them to do anything? Why is only the victim of the October 7 invasion being asked to make concessions, and not the aggressor?

“I will not replace Hamastan with Fatahstan…. According to a poll that was carried out a few days ago, 82% of the Palestinian population in Judea and Samaria justifies the horrific massacre of Oct. 7.” — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Unfortunately, the October 7 massacre proved beyond a doubt that both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority actually mean it when they say that they want to annihilate Israel. According to a November 14 poll by the Arab World for Research and Development, 75% of the Palestinians polled support the October 7 massacre and 74.7% support the creation of a single Palestinian state “from the river to the sea”… This is what the Biden administration wants to reward with a Palestinian state?

Trade tangible land in Israel for intangible promises from Lebanon — protected by a military that might wilt at the first shot?

Perhaps Biden could please reconsider?US President Joe Biden has gone out of his way — and it is enormously appreciated! — to stand by America’s ally Israel, defending itself from being further attacked by Hamas and other Iranian proxy groups in the region. The Biden administration has sent warships to the region, materiel to counter the more than 9,500 rockets and missiles fired at Israel since October 7, aimed at the cities of a country roughly the size of New Jersey. It is bewildering that he has come under so much unjust criticism for supporting a country that is basically also fighting for the US and the Free World against a terrorist group, Hamas, that apparently sees nothing wrong with burning babies alive, beheading them, raping and torturing men, women and children and then murdering them.

Sadly however, by reportedly demanding that Israel reduce its efforts to confront the Iran-backed terrorist group by January 1, Biden, presumably to help his reelection campaign, is seriously undermining Israel’s efforts.

The Biden Administration, Palestinians and Inconvenient Truths by Bassam Tawil

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20240/palestinians-inconvenient-truths

The results of the poll also showed that, unlike the Biden administration, most Palestinians do not trust the Palestinian Authority and prefer Hamas’s terrorism to a peaceful settlement with Israel.

The PA might say that it is ready to change, but this will be in order to deceive the Biden administration and the rest of the international community into continuing to pour billions of dollars on Abbas and his cohorts…

Despite whatever commitments might be signed in blood, in the eyes of Palestinian leaders, they are just Western fantasies. After the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993 and 1995 , then PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat assured his people — in Arabic — that Oslo was no more binding than the Treaty of Al-Hudaibiyya, when the Islamic prophet Mohammad agreed not to attack for ten years, then, with his opponents safely neutralized, he assembled an army and attacked after two years.

[S]upport for Abbas and his ruling Fatah faction has dropped significantly. The same is true for trust in the Palestinian Authority as a whole, as demand for its dissolution has risen to nearly 60%, the highest percentage ever recorded in PSR polls. Demand for Abbas’s resignation has increased to around 90%… 63% are now in favor of “armed struggle”.

According to the poll, most Palestinians justify Hamas’s October 7 massacre, including murder, decapitation, rape and burning people alive. These are the same people that the Biden administration wants to give a state next to Israel.

If new presidential elections were held today with only two candidates, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh would receive 78% of the vote as opposed to 16% for Abbas. The poll also showed that 54% of Palestinians think that Hamas is the most deserving of representing and leading the Palestinian people today….

It is enough for Biden administration officials to look at the results of the poll of PSR and talk to ordinary Palestinians to understand that the White House’s policies, such as promoting the creation of an Iran-sponsored Palestinian terror state, are not wanted by anyone but Iran and them.

As US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan was in the Middle East last week trying to restrain Israel in its war against the Iran-backed Hamas terrorist group and to “revamp” the Palestinian Authority (PA), a public opinion poll again illustrated how the Biden administration continues to intentionally ignore the reality of the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The results of the poll also showed that, unlike the Biden administration, most Palestinians do not trust the PA and prefer Hamas’s terrorism to a peaceful settlement with Israel.

Sullivan was reportedly in the Middle East for two reasons: to pressure Israel to scale down its military operations against Hamas, and to discuss the possibility of having the Palestinian Authority govern the Gaza Strip the day after the current war ends.