RUTHFULLY YOURS

A primer

‘When can we end social distancing and get back to normal life?” It’s the question on everyone’s mind, and one without a clear answer at this time. Here’s what we do know: An effective treatment against the novel coronavirus would make a big difference in getting us there.

Remember the old adage, “There’s no cure for the common cold”? Well, the common cold is caused by a mild strain of coronavirus. The version of coronavirus we’re dealing with here is far more dangerous — but possibly just as difficult to treat.

In order to talk about therapies, it’s important to distinguish between the virus itself — the infectious agent — and the disease caused by the virus. (Think of HIV, the human immunodeficiency virus that causes the illness known as acquired immune-deficiency syndrome, or AIDS.) In our present case, the World Health Organization has named the novel coronavirus “severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2,” or SARS-CoV-2. The WHO calls the illness caused by SARS-CoV-2 “COVID-19.” (“COVID” stands for “coronavirus disease”; “19” comes from the fact that the disease was first identified in Wuhan in late 2019.) To repeat: Virus, SARS-CoV-2; disease, COVID-19. 

There are two broad categories of ongoing clinical development related to the pandemic. Vaccines, which help people achieve immunity to the virus, are the farthest off. A vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 won’t be ready until late 2021 at the earliest. That’s because vaccines need to be painstakingly tested in clinical trials to ensure that they make patients better, not worse. Flawed vaccines can lead to dangerous overstimulation of the immune system, or can make someone even more sensitive to coronavirus exposure. And since you can’t ethically expose someone to coronavirus, you have to give the vaccine to hundreds or even thousands of people and wait to see evidence of whether the vaccine achieves a statistically significant reduction in the number of people who get infected. Furthermore, coronaviruses mutate frequently, meaning that a vaccine developed in one year would likely be less robust, or even completely ineffective, in future years.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8209161/More-18-000-Americans-dead-coronavirus.html?ito=push-notification&ci=12687&si=5381410

More than 18,000 Americans now dead from coronavirus as the infection number increases to 490,000 – as updated projections show TODAY will be peak death day with an estimated 1,900 fatalities
The death had increased to more than 18,000 by Friday with 1,322 death recorded in 24 hours 
There are now more than 490,000 confirmed coronavirus infections across the country after cases increase by nearly 21,000 overnight
Updated projections show Friday will be the peak day for coronavirus deaths 
The new estimates brought forward the peak day of deaths by two days to April 10 with 1,983 people predicted to die from the coronavirus 
The projections were released on Friday by forecasters at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation 
Peak resource use for hospitals is predicted to occur on Saturday where an estimated 86,379 beds, 17,707 ICU beds and 15,414 ventilators will be needed 
Learn more about how to help people impacted by COVID

https://pjmedia.com/trending/dr-fauci-cuts-death-projection-almost-in-half-from-just-10-days-ago/

On March 31, the White House coordinator for the coronavirus task force gave a somber projection of between 100,00 and 240,000 dead Americans as a result of the pandemic.

Dr. Deborah Birx said that even with strict social distancing and a shuttered economy, the best we could hope for is 100,000 fatal cases of the coronavirus.

But today, Dr. Anthony Fauci revised that estimate considerably downward. Fauci now believes — based on two respected models — that the U.S. death toll will be around 60,000.

Bloomberg:

At a White House news conference on Wednesday, Birx said that two prominent models for U.S. mortality from the Covid-19 pandemic — Covid Act Now and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington — had both lowered their fatality projections based on widespread social distancing efforts.

Trump didn’t endorse social distancing until March 16, after many ordinary Americans had already taken up the practices themselves out of fear for the virus. It isn’t clear that the country will obey him if he urges Americans to abandon the behaviors before the outbreak has abated.

“The country” will go back to work if Trump gives the all-clear. It’s not a question of “obeying” or disobeying the president. For most, it’s a matter of survival.

That said, in an interview with CBS, Dr. Fauci was considerably more optimistic than he has been in the past.

Separately, Fauci said in a CBS News interview on Thursday that he sees the U.S. making progress toward a return to normal life in the near future. Federal social-distancing recommendations extend to April 30.

“Hopefully, by the time we get to the summer, we will have taken many steps in that direction,” he said. But he cautioned that different areas of the U.S. may see the outbreak peak at different times, which may require a range of timetables.

Fauci was asked if he can envision Americans returning to beaches, celebrations, and other normal seasonal activities in the summer.

“Yes,” he said, “if we do the things that we need to do to prevent the resurgence.”

https://pjmedia.com/trending/heritage-coronavirus-commission-releases-5-step-plan-to-reopen-america/

On Thursday, the Heritage Foundation’s National Coronavirus Recovery Commission met for the first time. At the meeting, seventeen experts hammered out a general five-phase plan to “save lives and livelihoods” by defeating the coronavirus and jumpstarting the economy. Vice President Mike Pence acknowledged the commission’s work.

In order to slow the spread of the virus, President Donald Trump has urged Americans to stay home, practice social distancing, and avoid going into the office if their work is not “essential.” State and local leaders have issued various orders, and businesses have moved to remote work or laying off employees. Unemployment has skyrocketed, Americans are having trouble paying rent, and millions are hoping America can reopen sooner rather than later. President Trump originally said he hoped to reopen the country by Easter, but that seems too ambitious.

“Good public health policy is good economic policy, and vice versa,” Kay Coles James, president of the Heritage Foundation, said in a statement. “If the economy fails, there will be severe, long-term health consequences; and if the health care system fails, there will be severe, long-term economic consequences. A nation decimated by the disease cannot have a functioning economy, and a catastrophic loss of jobs wreaks horrific damage on both mental and physical health.”

Therefore, the commission announced a five-phase plan to reopen the economy while also combatting the virus.