RUTHFULLY YOURS

Despite nonstop media controversies swirling about his administration and continued criticism from his political foes, President Donald Trump’s favorability remained rock solid in early October, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows.

September’s news-filled month — which included the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, renewed efforts to end the Israel-Hamas conflict, and U.S. attacks on South American cartels’ drug boats — failed to diminish Trump’s overall poll readings.

Every month, I&I/TIPP asks Americans the following question: “Overall, is your opinion of Donald Trump generally favorable, generally unfavorable, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?”

Among those participating in this month’s national online poll of 1,459 adults, taken from Sept. 30 to Oct. 2, 43% of Americans held a favorable opinion of Trump’s leadership, while 46% described their opinions as unfavorable. Meanwhile, 11% were either “not familiar enough to say” (7%) or not sure (4%). The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.

Those numbers are virtually identical, statistically speaking, to September’s 43% favorable, 47% unfavorable reading. Trump’s readings have remained largely unchanged.

Of course, the solidity comes from continued strong readings among Republicans (80% favorable, 12% unfavorable) vs. Democrats (14% favorable, 78% unfavorable) and independents (34% favorable, 54% unfavorable).

But there are other interesting differences in favorability within demographic subgroups.

For instance, in October as in previous months there’s a persistent difference between men (50% favorable in October, 41% unfavorable) and women (37% favorable, 50% unfavorable). That could mean the are lots of interesting, but contentious, dinner-table conversation in America these days.

Regional differences are likewise at times a bit counterintuitive.

As an example, Trump’s highest favorability ranking is in the Northeast (47% favorable, 43% unfavorable), an area usually thought to be the nation’s most liberal. But he also does very well in the South (46% favorable, 43% unfavorable), where Republican voter registration tends to be higher than Democratic registration.

It’s no great shock that Trump gets lowest marks in the West (38% favorable, 50% unfavorable), where ultra-blue progressive cities dominate the voting landscape. But that’s followed closely by the Midwest (40% favorable, 49% unfavorable), unexpected if only because Trump has aimed many of his policies at reviving the Midwest’s moribund industrial economy.

A second question I&I/TIPP asks each month: “In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?”

Once more, overall, the numbers are close: In October, 42% approved of the job Trump is doing, while 46% didn’t approve. That compares with 43% approve and 47% disapprove in September.

Again, there are some surprises. For instance, Americans tend to think of cities as overwhelmingly liberal, and thus political poison for any right-of-center politician. Yet, Trump gets 47% job approval, versus 44% disapproval, in the nation’s cities. His worst scores come in the suburbs: 40% job approval, 50% job disapproval. Rural areas are somewhere in between: 42% job approval, 44% disapproval.

It was noted above that Trump doesn’t do as well with women as with men.

But even within the “women” category, there are big differences. Single women give him only 32% approval, as compared to 54% disapproval, for the job he’s doing. But married women are very different: 42% approve, 44% disapprove. That’s a 22-point “favorability gap” just within the female category, based solely on marital status.

But probably the most predictable results in terms of Trump’s job favorability come from looking at the ideology of voters: Conservatives (76% approve, 17% disapprove), moderates (32% approve, 56% disapprove) and liberals (15% approve, 79% disapprove) show that Trump’s most powerful support clearly comes from those on the conservative end of the spectrum.

So how do Americans view Trump’s leadership overall? I&I/TIPP asks Americans the following question every month: “How would you describe the leadership that President Trump is providing for the country?”

For October, 42% called Trump’s leadership either “very strong” (27%) or “strong” (15%), up a percentage point from September. “Moderate” was the response for 16% of those in the poll.

On the other end, 38% described Trump’s leadership as “weak” (10%) or “very weak” (28%), a single percentage-point decline from last month. Only 4% said they weren’t sure in October.

As with so many things, leadership is in the eye of the beholder.

Democrats, for instance, don’t appreciate Trump’s leadership much: 68% called his leadership weak, with just 17% describing it as strong. Among independents, it was 45% weak and 32% strong.

But Trump maintains solid support within the GOP, with 75% terming his leadership strong, and only 7% weak.

(Below: The TIPP Presidential Leadership Index measures public sentiment over time by combining three components: favorability, job approval, and presidential leadership. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with readings above 50 indicating optimism and below 50 signaling pessimism. In October, the overall index stood at 48.8 (Sep.=48.5), with Republicans most optimistic at 84.0 (Sep. = 83.0), Democrats least at 18.7 (Sep. = 18.5), and independents in between at 39.4.)

As a capstone each month, we take a different kind of reading of public opinion: We ask voters to give Trump a grade (A, B, C, D, or F, as in school grading) on individual policy issues.

How’s Trump doing? In October, 40% gave the president “good” grades, or As and Bs. That’s the same grade he received in August and September.

Among his top three grades: “Handling the immigration, border security situation” (45%), the same grade as in September; “Handling violence and crime in the country” (40%), down a point; and “Restoring America’s Core Values” (38%), unchanged.

His lowest scores were: “Handling of the Russia-Ukraine war” (33%), down a point; “Handling of North Korea” (up a point), “Handling of Russia” (up a point) and “Handling of Healthcare” (no change), all at 34%.

Given the degree of political polarization in the U.S., President Trump’s scores remain surprisingly solid and imperturbable. He might be suffering from a kind of over-exposure, due to his non-stop pursuit of new policies intended to “make America great again.”

With major initiatives now moving forward to rebalance the Mideast, end the Russia-Ukraine war, aid Israel in its response to Hamas’ terrorist attack, counter China’s growing economic and national security challenges, thwart Latin America’s drug cartels, and win the domestic battle over the bloated U.S. budget, Americans may soon have more concrete results for judging Trump’s effectiveness as the nation’s chief executive and commander in chief.

No matter Trump’s successes, it will be tough. The yawning differences in how people view the controversial president are a further sign of America’s deep political schism.

As a widening ideological divide drives Americans further and further apart, can President Trump overcome the disdain and outright hatred of many who politically oppose him? And will policy success lead to political acceptance?

I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.

Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.