RUTHFULLY YOURS

With ongoing efforts to halt the Russia-Ukraine war, interest-rate fights with the Fed, and continued talks over tariffs, among other things, President Donald Trump is one of the busiest chief executives ever. But how’s he doing? Republicans like his leadership, but Democrats don’t, and independents are lukewarm, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows.

Each month, I&I/TIPP asks the following question about Trump’s leadership: “Overall, is your opinion of Donald Trump generally favorable, generally unfavorable, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?”

In September’s national online I&I/TIPP Poll, taken from Aug. 27-29 by 1,362 adults, 43% of Americans described Trump’s leadership as favorable, while another 47% called it unfavorable. Another 10% said they were either “not familiar enough to say” (6%) or “not sure” (4%).

The poll has a margin of error of +/-2.9 percentage points.

But the responses were, as often, politically fragmented.

Republicans, for instance, gave Trump 78% favorability, just 15% unfavorable. Democrats were almost perfectly opposite: 16% favorable, 78% unfavorable. Independents were again in between (but still negative) at 31% favorable, 53% unfavorable.

There are many schisms among individual demographic groups, including men (50% unfavorable, 42% unfavorable) and women (36% unfavorable, 52% unfavorable); white (49% unfavorable, 43% unfavorable), black (20% unfavorable, 65% unfavorable) and Hispanic (41% unfavorable, 47% unfavorable); and investors (60% favorable, 36% unfavorable) versus non-investors (36% favorable, 53% unfavorable).

In short, there is a rather dramatic political non-consensus when it comes to Trump’s leadership. But overall, his leadership wins better overall favorability than former President Joe Biden’s final month in office; 38% favorable, 51% unfavorable.

A second question asks: “In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?”

Responses were virtually identical: 43% approve, 47% disapprove. Readings from political parties also remain virtually the same magnitude. GOP followers approve of Trump; Dems and indies, mostly don’t.

For our third question each month, respondents gauge the strength of Trump’s leadership: “How would you describe the leadership that President Trump is providing for the country?”

On this, some 41% of Americans responded either “strong” (15%) or “very strong” (26%), while 39% said his leadership was “weak” (10%) or “very weak” (29%). But a large chunk of voters (16%) described his leadership as “moderate.”

Again, the old bugbear of political differences emerges clearly. Democrats (14% strong, 70% weak) and independents (30% strong, 44% weak) clearly see a different leader than GOPers do (76% strong, 7% weak).

Republicans see a strong, can-do leader; Dems and independents don’t, no doubt due to strong policy differences.

(Below: The TIPP Presidential Leadership Index measures public sentiment over time by combining three components: favorability, job approval, and presidential leadership. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with readings above 50 indicating optimism and below 50 signaling pessimism. In September, the overall index stood at 48.5, with Republicans most optimistic at 83.0, Democrats least at 18.5, and independents in between at 38.8.)

Finally, poll participants graded Trump on his performance in individual policy areas, using the standard academic grade ranking of A, B, C, D, and F, with an added “not sure” category.

The result, Trump gets a solid overall 40% grade (A “excellent” or B “good”) for his policy performance, the same as in August.

His strongest three grades include “Handling the immigration, border security situation” (45%), “Handling violence and crime in the country” (41%), and “Restoring America’s Core Values” (38%).

The lowest three numerical scores: “Handling of Healthcare” (32%), “Handling the Israel-Hamas conflict,” “Handling of Russia” and “Handling of North Korea”, all getting 33% As and Bs; and finally, “Handling the Israel-Iran conflict”, “Handling of China” and “Handling of the Russia-Ukraine war,” all at 34% top grades.

There’s no denying that Trump has been effective as a leader, whether you agree with his policies or not.

A recent survey by the business leadership group Quarterdeck, titled “What Leadership Style is Donald Trump: A Strategic Analysis,” described why Trump’s aggressive leadership style discomfits so many:

“Trump’s combination of ambitious, dominant, and outgoing personality patterns creates a highly personal, direct leadership approach that prioritizes emotional connection and decisive action over traditional diplomatic consensus-building.”

Or as Fortune Magazine noted just after last year’s presidential election, citing Stanford University leadership expert Jeffrey Pfeffer, “Trump is the kind of leader who people like and seek out, whether in politics or at the office, not despite his perceived faults but because of them.”

Still, there’s another element of polls on Trump’s leadership that often goes unexplored: the impact of big corporate media on voters’ perceptions.

In a survey of nearly 900 news stories earlier this year, the Media Research Center found that 92% of Trump coverage by ABC, NBC and CBS was negative from the time he took office to April 9. No matter Trump’s triumphs, viewers got a continuing drumbeat of critical commentary, something sure to affect many viewers and, thus, Trump polls.

Another study, this by Harvard’s Shorenstein Center, similarly found 80% negative coverage, noting: “Trump has received unsparing coverage for most weeks of his presidency, without a single major topic where Trump’s coverage, on balance, was more positive than negative, setting a new standard for unfavorable press coverage of a president.”

Yet, despite strong antipathy from political foes and the media, Trump’s leadership ratings remain solid. Why? After years of things getting steadily worse – inflation, war between Ukraine and Russia, a White House bereft of executive leadership, to name just a few – Americans appear hungry for a strong president who will take action on the burning issues of the day.

Whether his angry political opponents admit it or not, to many Americans Donald Trump is that person.

I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.

Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.