RUTHFULLY YOURS

On early Friday morning Middle East time, Israel launched an extensive strike on Iran’s nuclear program. Airstrikes hit Iran’s ballistic-missile facilities and its nuclear-enrichment site Natanz along with other targets, while further precision operations (reportedly involving the Mossad) took out top Iranian military brass along with nuclear scientists. The operation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, would continue “for as many days as it takes” to neutralize any threat from Iran’s nuclear program.

While the prospect of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear capacity has long been discussed, several factors made it more urgent, and more possible. Iran had significantly ramped up its enrichment capacity, with even the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency (not exactly friendly to Israeli militarism) having determined that Iran had been enriching uranium well beyond the level of civilian use, and closer to military grade. With just some more refinement, Iran would be in the position to produce ten nuclear bombs.

A nuclear Iran dedicated to Israel’s destruction is an existential threat. An overwhelming majority of Israel’s population lives either in Jerusalem or in a small strip of coastal land that includes Tel Aviv — and all of those targets are well within range of Iran’s missiles. Even if Iran never pulled the trigger on a nuclear weapon, their mere possession of one would allow the radical Islamist regime that vows “Death to America” to operate with impunity as it financed terrorist attacks, targeted U.S. assets and service personnel, and engaged in other malign behavior that destabilizes the region.

Several developments since the October 7 massacres have also made the current attack more feasible. Last fall, Israel managed to cripple Iranian air defenses in a retaliatory attack without losing a single pilot, which both demonstrated Israel’s ability to strike inside Iran and made the nuclear sites more vulnerable. During the strikes overnight, there was no evidence of any response from Iran’s air defense. Additionally, on two occasions (April and October of last year), Iran launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles at Israel but was not able to do much damage thanks to a joint Israeli and American defensive effort. So far in response to the current Israeli strikes, Iran has fired 100 drones at Israel, to no avail.

Another crucial factor behind the timing of these strikes is having an ally in the White House. Over the past several months, the administration was in a tug-of-war between those seeking to prevent an Israeli strike and the Iran hawks that played out via leaks and public debates. This likely reflected Trump’s own internal debate. Several months ago, he urged Israel to back off attacking Iran and had his envoy Steve Witkoff conduct multiple rounds of nuclear talks, which created concerns from hawks that he may sign onto a bad deal. Even hours before the attacks, Trump announced he was still dedicated to pursuing a negotiated solution. Whether or not he was actively participating in a ruse to keep Iran from thinking an attack was imminent, this was clearly helpful in adding an element of surprise to an operation that involved very obvious tells, including the recent removal of U.S. embassy staff and other military assets within striking distance of Iran.

Regardless, he has been unequivocally in support of Israel in the morning after. He wrote on Truth Social that he “gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal,” noting that he gave them a 60-day ultimatum and Thursday was Day 61. He also said that the U.S. was supplying Israel with lots of military equipment (which no doubt includes bunker-busting bombs), “with much more to come.” He added that “Israel knows how to use it.” In interviews, Trump affirmed that the U.S. would also participate in defending Israel against Iranian retaliation — while still saying the door is open if Iran wants to make a deal. “We of course support Israel, obviously, and supported it like nobody has ever supported it,” he told CNN’s Dana Bash. In classic Trump fashion, he remarked that several of the people the U.S. was negotiating with are dead, and said sarcastically, “They didn’t die of the flu; they didn’t die of Covid.” Short of the U.S. military’s actively participating in the campaign against Iran, it is difficult to see how any Israeli government could have asked for more from a U.S. administration.

Over the past several decades, Western powers have tried to avoid this eventuality through sanctions against Iran, endless diplomacy, Barack Obama’s disastrous nuclear deal, and the “maximum pressure” campaign of Trump’s first term. Multiple acts of sabotage and other covert activities by Israel set back Iran’s program at various points. But ultimately, Iran would not give up its pursuit of nuclear weapons, and Israelis had no choice but to act. May the operation be fully successful.