The Great Blue to Red State Migration Continues The latest Census data finds that on present course six progressive states would lose 12 House seats in 2030 reapportionment.
The migrant border mess is benefiting progressive states like New York, California and Illinois in one respect: It’s offsetting some of their population loss from droves of taxpayers fleeing to lower-cost and low-tax states. That’s one lesson from new Census Bureau state population data released this week.
The U.S. population increased by 1.6 million between July 2022 and July 2023, with states in the South accounting for about 1.4 million of the growth. Leading the boom were Texas (473,453), Florida (365,205), Georgia (116,077), South Carolina (90,600) and Tennessee (77,512). Driving their growth was migration from other states.
Eight states saw population declines, with the biggest in New York (-101,984), California (-75,423) and Illinois (-32,826). They can blame population flight. California lost the most residents to other states (-338,371), followed by New York (-216,778), Illinois (-83,839), New Jersey (-44,666), Massachusetts (-39,149) and Maryland (-30,905).
You don’t need artificial intelligence to spot what these states have in common: High taxes, burdensome business regulation and inflated energy and housing prices. Most donor states also have higher than average unemployment as a result of businesses moving or expanding their workforces in other states. California and New Jersey have both had significant increases in unemployment over the last year.
An interesting natural experiment has been Washington state, which gained tens of thousands of people from other states on net each year in the last decade. But since enacting a 7% capital-gains tax on higher earners in 2021, Washington has been losing residents to other states at an accelerating pace—15,276 this past year. Could that be a reason, or is Seattle’s crime problem a better explanation?
If not for foreign immigration, population declines last year would have been far greater in California, New York, Illinois and Oregon. Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Washington also would have lost population. Immigrants are an economic asset, but expansive welfare states have made them a burden for these states.
A big problem for Democratic-run states is that their affluent residents are leading the exodus, and they pay the majority of income tax that supports their expansive welfare programs. This is a major reason California’s tax revenue over the last five months has come in $24.5 billion below projections despite a rebounding stock market.
U.S. corporate profits have ticked up this year, yet California’s corporate tax revenue is running about 50% below forecast, no doubt partly because businesses have shrunk their footprint in the state. New York’s tax collections during the first eight months of its fiscal year are also $6.4 billion (9.8%) below last year’s. The Big
’s tax revenue is $2 billion lower. What happened to Mayor Eric Adams’s campaign pledge to bring the rich back?
State migration has long-tail political consequences. California, New York, Illinois, Minnesota and Rhode Island and Oregon on present trend would lose a combined 12 House seats in the 2030 reapportionment, which is as many as Florida, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, North Carolina, Utah and Idaho would collectively gain.
Democratic Governors such as California’s Gavin Newsom portray right-leaning states as benighted and undemocratic. But then how do they explain why so many of their states’ residents are moving there?
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