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May 2023

Hot, Hot, Hot: Global Warming Models are Running Hotter than Reality

https://issuesinsights.com/2023/05/01/hot-hot-hot/

The sky warriors hold the climate models that have been predicting global doom to be sacrosanct. But as we have reported many times in the past, they’re flawed. A new research paper confirms our warnings. It would be helpful if the brand name media would make note of it. We won’t be holding our own hot air, though.

A January report from Berkeley Earth – self-described as a “non-profit research organization” that “has been preparing independent analyses of global mean temperature changes since 2013″ – starts out as anyone would expect: with a frightful declaration “that 2022 was nominally the fifth warmest year on Earth since 1850.” Which of course means nothing.

It goes on to say “​​the last eight years have included all eight of the warmest years observed in the instrumental record,” another string of words that sound ominous but aren’t. 

What is important, however, is buried near the bottom of the report.

Since 1980, Earth’s temperature trend “has changed little.” The researchers reckon that global temperatures have increased 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade over that period. The data was pulled from 50,498 weather stations combined with sea-surface temperature data.

With this in mind, let’s take a look at the predictions that have been made by the climate models. Their forecasts indicate that ​​temperatures should be increasing at the rate of about 0.28–0.29 degrees Celsius per decade. That’s about 50% higher than the increases Berkeley Earth found.

Don’t Count Ron DeSantis Out If he wants to win, he has to ease up on the culture war and start appealing to moderate primary voters. By Mark Penn

https://www.wsj.com/articles/dont-count-ron-desantis-out-trump-2024-gop-primary-moderates-culture-war-34be9a75?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

Can Ron DeSantis beat Donald Trump? In the game of presidential politics, well-known front-runners often falter and up-and-comers often win—Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton, and Jimmy Carter came from nowhere to beat establishment figures such as Rep. Mo Udall and Sen. Henry “Scoop” Jackson. When Mr. Trump was the challenger, he polished off Jeb Bush, the Florida governor who once led the pack.

The DeSantis ship is clearly listing and must right itself. I wouldn’t normally give advice to a Republican candidate, but someone has to stop Donald Trump from regaining the presidency, and I wouldn’t count on President Biden to do it given his low job-approval rating and widespread doubts about his fitness. Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden in the RealClearPolitics polling average. A Trump-Biden rematch is a risky proposition, and with the Democrats consolidated around Mr. Biden, the only way to avoid it is through the Republican primary.

To get back in the game, Mr. DeSantis has to put cultural issues to the side and run on character, competence and common sense. He has the strong character of a family man who cares for his wife, a cancer survivor; the energetic competence of an accomplished governor; and the common sense to campaign on such issues as a balanced budget, a workable immigration system, crime policies that target criminals and improve policing, and programs that reduce the size of government. The major issues facing the country ,according to Mr. DeSantis’s supporters in the latest Harvard/CAPS Harris poll, are inflation (36%), immigration (29%), and the economy and jobs (28%). Eighty-one percent of all voters back a plan to balance the budget, including majorities of Republicans, Democrats and independents. This could be the cornerstone of a smart economic plan.

Challenger presidential campaigns always have at least one near-death experience, so a dip isn’t unusual. Mr. DeSantis has been swinging for social conservatives, which has alienated centrist and liberal voters while failing to take any voters from Mr. Trump. Conservative Republicans have, in the face of Mr. Trump’s indictment, rallied behind the former president. How long this supports lasts or how it might hold up in the event of other indictments isn’t clear, but Mr. Trump definitely has gained strength in recent weeks.

Women in Science Are Doing All Right A new study challenges the notion that sexism is rampant in the sciences.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-female-scientists-are-all-right-women-engineering-wage-gap-sexism-discrimination-b186f9d9?mod=opinion_lead_pos3

The toy maker Mattel recently honored International Women’s Day by making “role model dolls” of women in science, tech, engineering and math jobs, while lamenting that “girls are systemically tracked away from STEM.” It’s a cliché that these fields are rife with sexism, but at least in academia the data disagree, according to a new paper in the journal Psychological Science in the Public Interest.

“The literature on women in science, both scholarly and popular, portrays academic sexism today as an omnipresent, pervasive force in the daily lives of tenure-track women in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields,” write Stephen Ceci and Wendy Williams of Cornell and Shulamit Kahn of Boston University. Yet their review of the evidence from 2000 to 2020 shows that women in scholarly sciences are doing fine.

Tenure-track women are at parity with their male counterparts in grant funding, recommendation letters and having research accepted by journals, the authors say. In hiring, women have an advantage over men: “Women are less likely than men to apply for tenure-track jobs, but when they do apply, they receive offers at an equal or higher rate than men do.”