Another Alternative to Biden Who can win independents in 2024?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/another-alternative-to-biden-11674765302?mod=opinion_lead_pos11
New York City Council Member Ari Kagan’s advocacy of the free society over Marxist misery is so stirring that yesterday this column wondered how we might get him to run for president. A number of readers noted that since he was not born a citizen of the United States, this would require a change to the U.S. Constitution. No one said the Kagan campaign would be easy!
As for the currently eligible candidates, the notable weakness of President Joe Biden in this week’s University of New Hampshire survey of likely Democratic primary voters had some readers suggesting that former First Lady Michelle Obama would be the best option for Democrats seeking to retain the White House in 2024.
Voters in the survey do not appear to have been asked about Mrs. Obama, perhaps because she has often indicated that she’s not interested in running. But if Democratic primary voters decide they’re ready to move on from Mr. Biden but have no obvious alternative, they may urge the former first lady to reconsider.
In 2020 Democratic voters didn’t immediately fall in love with Mr. Biden but decided he was more marketable in middle America than, for example, socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. In 2024 Democrats may decide that they need someone who is more broadly popular than their current roster of professional politicians. This week’s survey of New Hampshire’s likely Democratic primary voters showed significant support for candidates representing the left wing of the party.
Yet a changing electorate means that Democrats may have to work even harder than in 2020 to win over people in the middle. Jeffrey Jones of Gallup recently noted:
Americans’ party preferences were evenly divided in 2022, with 45% of U.S. adults identifying as Republican or saying they were Republican-leaning independents, and 44% identifying as Democrats or saying they were Democratic-leaning independents. The last time preferences were this closely divided was in 2011, with Democrats holding at least a three-percentage-point advantage in each year of the past decade.
More generally, stretching back to 1991, when Gallup began regularly measuring party identification and leaning, Democrats have held an edge in most years.
Some media coverage may suggest that the country is moving toward the Sandernista view of the world, but Gallup suggests otherwise:
The stronger year for Republicans in 2022 was manifested in their party’s winning control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Nationwide, more voters cast ballots for Republicans than Democratic U.S. House candidates last year by a margin of about three points. However, Republicans were not able to gain a majority in the U.S. Senate.
It’s not just that the country is lately more Republican. The number of nonpartisans is also significant. Mr. Jones writes:
When Gallup began conducting its interviews exclusively by telephone in 1988, there were similar proportions of Democrats, Republicans and independents in the U.S. In the early 1990s, independents began to outnumber Republicans and Democrats, but that advantage faded in the early 2000s.
However, since 2009, independent identification has grown and reached levels not seen before. Now, political independents (41%) greatly outnumber Republican (28%) and Democratic (28%) identifiers.
Some may not think this is Michelle Obama’s moment given the polarizing politics of her husband. But she largely avoided them and remains well-known and well-liked.
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