Lies, Damn Lies and Climate Models: Greg Chapman
https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2022/10/garbage-in-climate-science-out/
EXCERPT
“The world has less than a decade to change course to avoid irreversible ecological catastrophe, the UN warned today.” — The Guardian, Nov 28, 2007
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” — Yogi Berra
If your model’s initial assumptions are incorrect, how can you rely on it to make any prediction worth the effort of consulting? Not that peddling shoddy science bothers the swollen ranks of climateers. And why should they fret? Climate fear is a growth industry, meaning careers will advance so long as their rubbish in/garbage out findings are questioned.
Global extinction due to global warming has been predicted more times than the Labor Party has claimed it can cool the planet with a new tax. But where do these predictions come from? If you thought it was just calculated from the simple, well known relationship between CO2 and solar energy absorption, you would only expect to see about 0.5o C increase from pre-industrial temperatures as a result of CO2 doubling, due to the logarithmic nature of the relationship. [1]
The runaway 3-6o C and higher temperature increase model predictions depend on coupled feedbacks from many other factors, including water vapour (the most important greenhouse gas), albedo (the proportion of energy reflected from the surface – e.g. more/less ice or clouds, more/less reflection) and aerosols, just to mention a few, which theoretically may amplify the small incremental CO2 heating effect.
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