Democrats’ Risky Keystone Bet Their Pennsylvania Senate frontrunner is like Bernie Sanders, but more belligerent.By Kimberley A. Strassel
Donald Trump stirred the Pennsylvania primary pot this weekend, with his controversial endorsement of TV doctor Mehmet Oz over David McCormick to succeed Sen. Pat Toomey. If the press won’t let that go, it’s in part because Democrats are in denial about their own consequential contest—one that goes beyond Senate control to the question of their party’s future.
That’s the primary on their side, between Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Rep. Conor Lamb. It pits an all but untested, unapologetic progressive firebrand against a centrist with a proven track record of beating Republicans in the swingiest of states. And it speaks volumes that—for now—the uber-liberal is running away with it.
With a month to the state’s primary, Mr. Fetterman claims a significant fundraising advantage over Mr. Lamb and a substantial lead in the polls. The most recent poll this week, from Franklin & Marshall College, put him 24 points ahead of Mr. Lamb, 41% to 17%, with other candidates in single digits and 26% undecided.
The race represents a huge and risky bet by some national Democrats that a new breed of “populist” progressives can excite the base even as they also pull enough blue-collar white voters to win battleground states. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee worked hard in past primaries to put Lamb-like centrists on the Pennsylvania ticket, such as Katie McGinty (who barely lost to Mr. Toomey in 2016). But in response to pressure from Senate progressives, the DSCC is this time remaining neutral.
This is mind-bending to state Democratic organizations that have been through the Pennsylvania ground wars. Everyone from the Philadelphia Democratic Party to a raft of powerful unions has endorsed Mr. Lamb. These are the groups that watched the former Marine and prosecutor win three elections in right-leaning Western Pennsylvania districts, including a special election in 2018 in a district that had gone by nearly 20 points for Mr. Trump.
The Lamb formula is a savvy combination of support for key party priorities and independence on issues that resonate with centrist Pennsylvanians. He’s pro-choice, favors Build Back Better and a federal voting takeover, and has even called for getting rid of the filibuster. At the same time, he’s in favor of fracking (a huge source of Pennsylvania jobs), has voted for more border security, and was one of three House Democrats who voted for a bill to make parts of the 2017 tax reform permanent.
Mr. Lamb’s problem is that he’s less well-known than Mr. Fetterman, who holds statewide office and has used the spot to cultivate a fascinating brand. The liberal is 6-foot-8, has a goatee and tattoos, and revels in gym shorts, Carhartt and blue-collar Keystone culture. He has a penchant for trolling Republicans as “simps” and trashing West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin’s attachment to the filibuster. While Mr. Fetterman grew up in Central Pennsylvania in affluence, he presents himself as the patron saint of the Rust Belt Working Joe.
This masks a Fetterman agenda that puts him squarely in the camp of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (whom he’s praised as a “luminary”) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (whom he endorsed for president in 2016). He supports Medicare for all, a $15 minimum wage, allowing transgender athletes to compete in women’s sports, gun control, climate “justice,” and a “de facto moratorium” on fracking. Perhaps a greater political problem in today’s environment, he’s spoken at defund-the-police rallies and made a priority of releasing felons from prison. Then there’s the 2013 incident in which, as mayor of Braddock, he pulled a gun on an unarmed black jogger.
Republicans are salivating to begin the attack ads. Mr. Lamb is openly campaigning on these Fetterman liabilities, and a super PAC supporting Mr. Lamb last month circulated polling data showing a precipitous drop in Mr. Fetterman’s support when respondents were presented with his agenda and record. State Democrats also worry the Fetterman pitch to Trumpian voters and the 2013 incident will turn off the urban minority and affluent suburban voters Democrats depend on.
As for the GOP primary, never underestimate the party’s ability to blow it—even to the extent of creating a Sen. Fetterman. Mr. Lamb’s supporters also note the large number of undecided Democrats and say he’s positioned to close the gap. But for the moment, the party looks likely to nominate a Bernie Sanders candidate in a state that barely backed Scranton native Joe Biden.
Nancy Pelosi first won her speakership in 2006 on the back of candidates who resembled Mr. Lamb; she actively recruited centrists who made the party competitive outside its elite coastal enclaves. But with each passing month, Democratic leaders fall further under the sway of a vocal progressive minority whose members care more about imposing an unpopular policy agenda than about winning elections. Look at Mr. Biden’s poll numbers, and look at Pennsylvania. Nominating Mr. Fetterman is a recipe for longer-term political peril.
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