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February 2022

Putin Gambles That the West Is Weak Both militarily and culturally, we’ve been derelict in our duty to defend our civilization. By Tony Abbott

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tony-abbott-putin-west-weak-ukraine-russia-invasion-military-fossil-fuels-nuclear-germany-lng-woke-covid-regulations-china-11645977566?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

Mr. Abbott served as prime minister of Australia, 2013-15.

‘The bullying of small nations by big ones, the trampling of justice and decency in the pursuit of national aggrandizement, and reckless indifference to human life, should have no place in our world.”

Those were my words to the Australian Parliament on the morning of July 17, 2014, when a Russian missile battery had shot down flight MH17, killing 38 Australians among the 298 on board, as Russian proxies seized the Donbas. If it wasn’t yet obvious in 2008, when Vladimir Putin invaded Georgia, it should certainly have been six years later, when he annexed the Crimea, that Mr. Putin was bent on the restoration of greater Russia—and to hell with the freedom and independence of the countries that were once part of the Soviet Union.

Yet since then, Western democracies have culpably failed to boost their military capability while indulging acts of economic and cultural self-harm.

Take the U.K., the West’s second-strongest military power. The total number of British defense personnel dropped from about 600,000 in the 1950s to 300,000 in the 1960s and about 150,000 now. British forces in Europe declined from 80,000 in the 1950s to 50,000 in the 1960s to 25,000 in 1994 (still including one tank division), before dwindling to zero in Germany by 2020 and 1,000 in Estonia (placed there after 2015 in reaction to Russia’s renewed threat). In response to Russia’s blitzkrieg on Ukraine, the U.K. government has just announced that this force will be boosted to an armored brigade of fewer than 3,000. Given that the U.K. has provided by far the strongest response to the current crisis, it’s little wonder Mr. Putin thinks the West is weak and easily distracted.

“I See Him as a Modern-Day Pablo Escobar”: Inside Bill Browder’s War Against Putin In a series of revealing new interviews, Putin’s public enemy No. 1 offers scintillating details about his investigation into Russian financial malfeasance, running for his life, and the Helsinki fallout.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/11/bill-browder-war-against-putin

Perhaps all you need to know to understand the essense of Bill Browder is what he carried with him in his briefcase when he lived in Putin’s Russia. “At all times,” he told me not long after we met, “I had $5,000 in cash in case I had to flee for the border and pay off the guards.”

Bill Browder’s stories are melodramas. They often begin with a ringing phone—or a knock on a door. In May of this year, for example, the American-born financier was bundled into a police car in Madrid by the Spanish police, who, acting on an Interpol warrant at the behest of Russian authorities, simply appeared outside his hotel room and took him away. “I was frightened this wasn’t an arrest but an illegal rendition to Moscow,” Browder said. (He was let go an hour later.) These moments of crisis are familiar to his 180,000 Twitter followers—“the army of Bill,” they are called—who worry about his safety in his adopted role as both human-rights advocate and financial sleuth, taking on Putin and his kleptocrats. “Vladimir Putin wants me dead,” he says almost every time he is interviewed.

Is there anyone, by now, who is unaware of Browder’s relentless crusade? At 54, he circles the globe helping governments recover millions that Russian oligarchs have illegally parked overseas. He has dodged six warrants seeking his arrest. He takes precautions in his daily routine, wary of possible security threats. His weapons are judicial and legislative: sanctions blocking the assets and the international travel of Russian criminals, murderers, and corrupt industrialists who have plundered their companies.

The Gangster Who Reigns Over the Kremlin Daryl McCann (JUNE 2012)

https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2012/06/deluded-tyrant-in-the-kremlin/

In December 1564, Ivan IV took himself off into exile. From the remoteness of Aleksandrova Sloboda he wrote two letters to officials in Moscow, one announcing his abdication, the other stipulating that he would return to the throne only on condition he be granted absolute power. There were positive aspects to Ivan’s rule, especially in the earlier years, and “Fearsome” rather than “Terrible” might be a better rendering of his popular designation, and yet there is something wretchedly Russian about those obtuse boyars pleading, in the end, for Ivan’s royal restitution. Masha Gessen’s The Man Without a Face and even more so David Satter’s It Was a Long Time Ago, and It Never Happened Anyway do nothing to disabuse us of the notion that Russia as a whole remains clueless when it comes to addressing the most basic principles of democracy and the rights of the individual.

In August 1999, Boris Yeltsin announced that Vladimir Putin, Head of the Federal Security Service (FSB), was to be the new prime minister of Democratic Russia. Shortly thereafter, contends Gessen, the FSB made Yeltsin an offer he could not refuse. If Yeltsin allowed Putin to replace him as the president of the Russian Federation, Yeltsin could expect to enjoy the full protection of the intelligence service for the rest of his days, along with immunity from prosecution for any transgressions committed during a decade in office. The ailing and politically vulnerable Yeltsin assented. For almost seventy years the Chekists had been the sword and shield of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. Now, thanks to the demise of the USSR and Yeltsin’s instinct for self-preservation, a criminal cabal with a lineage dating back to Felix Dzerzhinsky’s Cheka commenced ruling Russia in its own right.

As a consequence, argues Gessen, Vladimir Putin has spent the past twelve years effectively transforming Russia “into a supersize model of the KGB”, the world’s first bona fide mafia state.

How To Make Russia Pay Over Ukraine By Lawrence Haas

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/02/how-to-make-russia-pay-over-ukraine-deploy-every-financial-weapon-possible/

How to Make Russia Pay – When asked, after his speech on Thursday, why the United States and its allies weren’t then kicking Russia completely out of SWIFT, the global banking communications system, over its invasion of Ukraine, President Biden said, “[It] is always an option. But right now, that’s not the position that the rest of Europe wishes to take.”

Removing Russia from SWIFT – the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication – is considered a “financial nuclear weapon,” the most severe sanction that the West could take. Since SWIFT is the “cans and the strings by which banks communicate to settle trades and transfers,” in the words of Marshall Billingslea, a former assistant Treasury secretary for terrorist financing,” removing Russia would cut off its banks from more than 11,000 banks in more than 200 countries.

By late Saturday, the West had partly triggered the SWIFT option; the United States, European Union, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Canada announced that they would remove “selected” Russian banks from the global system.

Putin ends the post-Cold War order The question now is what comes next — and how much will it look like what came before:Charles Lipson

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/putin-attacks-cold-war-order/

The post-Cold War order, which began in 1989, ended in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and said it had no right to exist as an independent nation. Faced with the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II, the biggest questions are

How much will this new world order resemble the Cold War?
How effective will the Russian war effort be in Ukraine?
Can Russia decapitate the Zelensky government and establish a puppet regime? Can they hold hostile territory in the long term against armed guerrillas, fighting for their homeland? Will a lingering conflict, and the endless funerals it brings, undermine Putin’s rule?
Can we avoid a direct, deadly, and unpredictable engagement between nuclear powers?
Will the costs the West imposes on Russia be high enough to deter China from taking Taiwan?

The historical setting of this crisis

Russia’s invasion is not just an effort to retake Ukraine, which was once part of the Soviet Union. It is an effort to use military force to overturn the post-Cold War settlement, reached in the early 1990s. In fact, the invasion cannot be understood without first understanding what that settlement looked like and why Russia wants to overturn it, despite the high costs.

North Korea Test-Launches Another Missile As World Focuses On Ukraine Crisis By Tyler Durden

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/north-korea-launches-another-missile-world-focuses-ukraine-crisis

We know that North Korea’s Hwasong-15 is a two-stage liquid-fueled missile believed to have a range of almost 8,000 miles and the capability of carrying multiple warheads. (Note:  North Korea is 5,626 miles from the California coast and 4,550 miles from Hawaii. – Janet Levy

North Korea resumed missile testing on Sunday following a pause during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games. The latest is a suspected mid-range ballistic rocket, according to Bloomberg.

Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi told reporters in Tokyo the suspected ballistic missile reached a maximum altitude of around 385 miles and flew 186 miles before splashing down in the waters outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

South Korea’s military said the ballistic missile launch occurred at 0752 local time near Pyongyang’s main airport on the waters off its east coast.

Weapon experts told Bloomberg the missile’s flight path was unusual and indicated the likely test of a medium-to-intermediate range ballistic missile.

The Putin-Puppet Slander against Mike Pompeo By Andrew C. McCarthy

https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/02/the-putin-puppet-slander-against-mike-pompeo/

Far from ‘praising’ Russia’s strongman, the former secretary of state was warning that we underestimate him at our peril.

M ike Pompeo is a West Point grad who served in Bavaria as an Army officer along the Iron Curtain line, opposite the Soviet Union and its similarly monstrous client regime in East Germany. This was just before the Berlin Wall fell and the evil empire disintegrated. He was also CIA director and secretary of state when the Trump administration, for all the then-president’s nauseating rhetoric about Vladimir Putin, treated Russia more realistically and more harshly than the Biden administration has.

As Dan McLaughlin observes, 62 percent of Americans — including four in ten Democrats — believe that if Donald Trump were still president, Putin would not dare have invaded Ukraine. If they are right about that, it has a lot to do with Secretary Pompeo’s clear-eyed steering of American foreign policy. You would never have seen Pompeo brandishing a “Reset” button with his Russian counterpart, much less helping Putin develop technological capabilities — while the Defense Department and the FBI pleaded with the State Department to stop.

That’s why I rolled my eyes this past week upon hearing claims that Pompeo had lavished praise on Putin even as the dictator was commencing his war of aggression. It just seemed too stupid to waste time on with so much of importance going on. But the story has persisted. It is based on a remark that made sense in context, but that of course was deracinated and spun into something it clearly wasn’t after a Daily Beast reporter posted an isolated quote. Fortunately, our friend Byron York at the Washington Examiner put the time in to report on exactly what Pompeo said in a long interview (45 minutes) by Harry Kazianis of the Center for the National Interest.

The assessment of Putin that has gotten the former secretary of state in hot water was as follows: “Very capable. I have enormous respect for him.” Patently, this was along the lines of “know thy enemy.” Pompeo immediately elaborated that he had previously been criticized for offering this assessment, but what he meant was that it would be greatly to America’s detriment to underestimate Putin because he is a rival and he is “very savvy, very shrewd.” Pompeo added that he felt this way because Putin was

an interlocutor that was always well informed and deeply clear about what Russian interests were. I appreciated that. It required the same from us, from me, from my team. We had to be equally prepared and equally protective of the interests that mattered to the United States.

Bill Barr Urges Republicans to Pick an ‘Impressive’ and ‘Younger’ 2024 Nominee Instead of Trump By John McCormack

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/bill-barr-urges-republicans-to-pick-an-impressive-and-younger-2024-nominee-instead-of-trump/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=homepage&utm_campaign=right-rail&utm_content=corner&utm_term=second

In his new book, Bill Barr, who served as attorney general under President Trump, urges Republicans to nominate someone other than Trump in 2024. The Wall Street Journal reports:

Former Attorney General William Barr writes in a new book that former President Donald Trump has “shown he has neither the temperament nor persuasive powers to provide the kind of positive leadership that is needed,” and that it is time for Republicans to focus on rising new leaders in the party.

The release of the former attorney general’s 600-page book, “One Damn Thing After Another,” is coming as Mr. Trump, who remains the GOP’s dominant figure, contemplates another presidential run. Mr. Barr writes that he was convinced that Mr. Trump could have won re-election in 2020 if he had “just exercised a modicum of self-restraint, moderating even a little of his pettiness.”

“The election was not ‘stolen,’ ” Mr. Barr writes. “Trump lost it.” Mr. Barr urges conservatives to look to “an impressive array of younger candidates” who share Mr. Trump’s agenda but not his “erratic personal behavior.” He didn’t mention any of those candidates by name.

During his speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Saturday night, Trump indicated that he intends to run for president again in 2024: “We did it twice, and we’ll do it again. We’re going to be doing it again, a third time.”

Trump remains the strong frontrunner, but polls suggest there’s a realistic path for someone like Florida governor Ron DeSantis to beat Trump in the race for the 2024 nomination.

We’re still 23 months away from the first 2024 caucuses and primaries.

Zelensky Announces Talks with Russia as Putin Ups Nuclear Saber-Rattling, Fighting Drags On By Brittany Bernstein

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/zelensky-announces-talks-with-russia-as-putin-ups-nuclear-saber-rattling/

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that a Ukrainian delegation would participate in talks with a Russian delegation on the Ukrainian–Belarusian border “without preconditions.”

Zelensky announced the talks on his official Telegram channel following a phone call with President Aleksandr Lukashenko of Belarus on Sunday, according to several news outlets.

Lukashenko has “taken responsibility for ensuring that all planes, helicopters and missile stationed on Belarusian territory remain on the ground during the Ukrainian delegation’s travel, talks and return,” the Ukrainian president said.

Zelensky had previously declined an earlier request for talks in Belarus, saying it was not neutral territory.

News of the talks came as Russian president Vladimir Putin said Sunday that he had placed Russia’s nuclear-deterrent forces on high alert in response to recent sanctions and “aggressive statements” from NATO countries.

Putin said in a televised statement that he had ordered the nuclear deterrent forces in a “special regime of combat duty.”

Joe Biden says delusional Americans are imagining inflation By Andrea Widburg

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/02/joe_biden_says_delusional_americans_are_imagining_inflation_.html

Hard-left podcaster Brian Tyler Cohen interviewed Biden. The topics were what would expect—Biden’s race- and sex-based Supreme Court nominee, claims that Trump and other Republicans support Putin, boasts about his strategic genius, etc.—but the real surprise was Biden’s claim that COVID has made Americans so psychologically unstable they can’t understand that the Biden economy is wonderful.

Here’s what Americans know: They are facing hard times. The economy is creeping back, but it’s nowhere near what it was under Trump before COVID. In 2019, unemployment was 3.6%. It went up to 6.7% in 2020. It’s now 4%, still short of the pre-COVID rate.

That 4% doesn’t even include the millions of people who dropped out of the workforce. CBS blames long COVID but it’s a good bet stimulus checks have also depressed the workforce. If people are paid not to work, they won’t work. When government money finally ends, they might come back.

Inflation is a problem, too. While wages have increased, those increases haven’t kept pace inflation’s 40 year high. A 3.5% raise is meaningless if life’s necessities (food, shelter, energy costs) increase in price by 7% or more.

Reagan rightly said of inflation that it’s “as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber, and as deadly as a hitman.” People don’t care whether the inflation is because of the supply chain problem or because Biden’s green energy (or, really, green lack-of-energy) policies have dramatically bumped up the price of fuel. What matters is that their money is losing value daily.

People also feel despair because it’s frightening to live in the shadow of a potential third world war. They worry that an increasingly desperate, angry Putin, rather than retreating from Ukraine may, instead, go on the attack against Sweden and Finland. They also understand that other tyrants are watching. China, Iran, and North Korea (which just launched a ballistic missile) are gaining courage because they recognize that Biden is weak.

This is why 62% of Americans say Putin would never have attacked Ukraine if Trump were still in the White House. Perhaps they remember Trump’s 2019 threat to Erdogan. In a jovial letter, Trump said work with me for a good deal or I’ll destroy Turkey’s economy. The media sneered, but Erodgan retreated. Biden, however, invited Putin to engage in a “minor incursion.” Putin took that invitation and ran with it.

Things really are bad and Americans know it. Biden’s theory, though, is that everything is great. The problem, he says, is that Americans have become delusional thanks to COVID stress.