RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17271/turkey-erdogan-political-rival

The lockdown has already put too much economic pressure on small businesses. A total of 125,000 small businesses and shop owners have gone bankrupt during the pandemic. That makes an estimated 500,000 people in Turkey badly affected by the unfortunate blend of economic and pandemic mismanagement…

Growing poverty is seen in other official numbers too. Energy Minister Fatih Dönmez said that power distribution companies cut electricity supplies to 3.7 million households last year due to unpaid debts. That makes more than 10 million Turks having to live without power due to inability to pay bills.

As of December 11, there were 22,759,000 cases of legal proceedings for unpaid debts, corporate and individual. Unemployment is another pressing problem.

This means that means Turkey must maintain its lockdown rules. Further lockdown, however, will mean further economic contraction especially in a country that depends on tourist industry revenues.

The pandemic has further impoverished Turkey’s fragile economy. It threatens to do worse damage to the budgets of poorer families, who are the core of the voting public. One recent study says that Erdoğan loyalists are the biggest number of voters who will vote differently or abstain from voting in the next elections.

Erdoğan’s biggest political rival appears to be poverty.

After 19 years of uninterrupted governance, Turkey’s Islamist strongman, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, seems to remain politically unchallenged. With presidential and parliamentary elections 2½ years away, credible research shows he is still the most popular politician, with his closest rival coming far below him in the polls. But he is now facing an unexpected rival that may unseat him.

MetroPOLL, an independent pollster, found recently that Erdoğan’s popularity was at 31%, followed by the main opposition party CHP at 17.4%. If elections were held today, Erdoğan’s ultranationalist coalition partner, MHP, would win 7.2%, bringing the government bloc’s vote up to 38.7%. The opposition bloc, a fragile alliance of six parties from different ideologies, would win an overall 36.1%.

Polls say that Erdoğan’s followers follow him as if they were following the Messiah, both figuratively and literally, rain or sunshine. At a new peak of a national currency crisis in November, a pro-Erdoğan columnist, Ali Karahasanoğlu, wrote that “even if the dollar rate rises to 15 lira (from 8.50) we will not surrender to the executioner.” He wrote: “We’d prefer one dollar to 15 liras instead of 8.50 in order not to see a Turkey that follows America’s orders.”

https://ewn.co.za/2021/04/20/holding-on-to-power-africa-s-longest-serving-leaders

Here are some of Africa’s other longest-serving leaders, some of whom change the constitution, crush the opposition and use fear and violence to maintain their grip on power.

N’DJAMENA, Chad – After three decades in power, Chad’s President Idriss Deby died on Tuesday from wounds suffered on the battlefield, the army said in a shock announcement just a day after the 68-year-old was re-elected to a sixth term.

Here are some of Africa’s other longest-serving leaders, some of whom change the constitution, crush the opposition and use fear and violence to maintain their grip on power.

MORE THAN 30 YEARS

Equatorial Guinea’s Teodoro Obiang Nguema is Africa’s longest-serving leader, still in power after 41 years. He deposed his uncle in a 1979 coup, and became “the country’s god” with “all power over men and things”, state radio said.

Obiang, the world’s most enduring non-royal head of state, was last re-elected in 2016.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tokyo-flexes-its-talons-11618871351?mod=opinion_featst_pos3

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s visit to the White House is being hailed in both countries as a major success. On the American side, officials rejoiced that Mr. Suga aligned Japan with U.S. talking points in Asia. As the prime minister said at a joint press conference, America and Japan both “oppose any attempt to change the status quo by force or coercion in the East and South China seas and intimidation of others in the region.” References to the Taiwan Straits and the situation in Xinjiang added to the impression that Tokyo is becoming more forthright in supporting a tougher U.S. line.

On the Japanese side, there was also much to be happy about. President Biden chose Mr. Suga for his first Oval Office meeting with a foreign leader, an unmistakable sign of the priority the Biden administration attaches to the relationship. Better still, American officials didn’t press the prime minister for a list of specific commitments that might have been difficult to sell at home—or that would ignite a firestorm in the volatile relationship between Beijing and Tokyo.

Mr. Suga hedged comments on Taiwan and Xinjiang carefully. On Taiwan, he said at the joint press conference that the summit “reaffirmed” the U.S.-Japan consensus. On Xinjiang he said that he had “explained Japan’s position and initiatives” to the president. Neither the press conference nor the joint statement Messrs. Biden and Suga issued after their discussion used the word “genocide.”

While Washington and Tokyo broadly agree about the risks of China’s behavior, Japan still prefers to stay a few steps behind America. Geography, economics and history all connect Japan to China. While officials in Tokyo fully understand that China’s growing military might and territorial assertiveness require a robust Japanese response, neither the country’s business community nor the public wants to be too confrontational with a neighboring superpower. On military and human rights issues alike, the Japanese consensus is shifting, but Tokyo’s postwar tradition of cautious diplomacy won’t change overnight.

And then there is the American question. The oscillations in U.S. policy under both President Obama and President Trump left Japan with a severe case of whiplash. Mr. Obama’s flaccid response to China’s construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea horrified Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government. Mr. Obama made the Trans-Pacific Partnership the centerpiece of his Asia policy, but Mr. Trump campaigned against it before rejecting the deal in office.

Tokyo cannot be 100% sure where the Biden administration’s China policy is going. While Mr. Suga was in Washington, John Kerry was in China pushing for a grand bargain on climate. The Biden administration’s rhetoric on issues ranging from Taiwan to Xinjiang is hawkish, but Mr. Biden has proposed a small cut to the defense budget, adjusted for inflation. Under the circumstances, Mr. Suga’s most prudent course was to avoid offending anyone in Washington without unduly shocking China—and this is what he seems to have accomplished.

The alliance with Japan is the single most important international relationship America has. Without Japan’s economic weight, technological capabilities and geographical position, the U.S. cannot build an effective coalition to balance China. But without strong and stable American support, Japan can’t last as an independent great power in China’s front yard.