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June 2018

Why China Can’t Afford a Trade War Beijing is more economically vulnerable than it appears. Milton Ezrati

https://www.city-journal.org/html/why-china-cant-afford-trade-war-15951.html

China and the United States have agreed not to impose tariffs on one another—that is, not to engage in a trade war—at least while they negotiate a trade settlement. If the White House is to be believed, China has agreed to increase “significantly” its purchases of American goods, especially agricultural products. This is welcome news: China-U.S. trade, for all the restrictions and conditions placed on it (mostly by Beijing), reflects an economically symbiotic relationship. A trade war would damage both countries. But Chinese concessions up front are also significant because tacitly they acknowledge weakness, even as China tries to present an image of trading dominance.

Beijing’s clearest difficulty lies in its export-oriented growth model, which many in the West erroneously see as a strength. Because China overemphasizes manufacturing, it produces surpluses that get wasted unless its state-owned firms can sell them. Without buyers, stacks of rebar, jet engines, and the like will rust in factory yards, and iPhones and millions of team-logo t-shirts pose a storage problem. The structure depends on prosperity elsewhere to absorb Chinese products. Reports on China’s recent economic growth surge underscore this dependency: even China’s own statistical bureau pointed to the acceleration of growth in the United States and Europe as the cause of its spurt.

Observers who fear Chinese manufacturing capacity point to the West’s vulnerability in this area. Because the United States and other developed economies have lost so much productive power to China, they would face shortages should Beijing decide to withhold supplies. Chinese refusal to export its products would hurt the West, perhaps even precipitating a recession, but inflicting this pain would come at great cost to China. Its export-oriented manufacturing would stagnate, and so, accordingly, would its export-dependent economy. Socially, China would suffer as well. Beijing fears a recurrence of the riots that rocked the nation during the great recession of 2008-09.

Gaza and Palestinian nihilism By Saul Goldman

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/06/gaza_and_palestinian_nihilism.html

“One can understand the meaning of Gaza only when one hears their words about building a state in the context of their efforts to destroy a state.”

Gaza is a case study in obfuscation. Ostensibly the ruckus is all about a march to reclaim property in Israel. But, unless one sees the background one does not comprehend the entire picture.

Do the Palestinians really want a state; a country of their own?

Political logic may support a two state solution. But, the cacophony of allegations, tirades and threats are orchestrated to prevent a serious discussion of how this state will come about. Unfortunately, all of this mayhem makes it very hard to believe in the genuineness of Palestinian desire for autonomy. Perhaps, as was the case with Germany in the twentieth century, their hatred for the Jews has become a self-destructive force. While a useful political instrument, hate hardly constitutes a political philosophy capable of promoting an independent democratic society.

The altruistic idea of a Palestinian state is a projection of American evangelism. We hold to the belief that all people should be free and equal. Americans believed that democracy could be transplanted to the Arab world. However, as Bernard Lewis and Samuel Huntington argued, we are witnessing a “clash of civilizations.” Western ideals forged out of consensus, such as democracy, may not be compatible with Islamic civilization built upon an ethos of violence.

Stay Out of Yemen By Stephen Bryen and Shoshana Bryen

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2018/06/stay_out_of_yemen.html

The United States is already militarily involved in Yemen, with special forces targeting al-Qaeda and Islamic State operatives who are then attacked by American drones. Thus far, however, it has stayed mostly outside the Yemeni civil war, in which Iranian-backed Houthi forces are fighting the Saudi-UAE-supported Yemeni government, although there are reports that Americans are helping locate and destroy ballistic missiles and launch sites that Houthi rebels have used to attack cities in Saudi Arabia.

Why should the United States increase its support for the anti-Houthi faction, particularly lacking any congressional support for additional involvement in Yemen? The Houthis are not America’s enemy; the enemy is Iran, which declared war on us in 1979 and pursues a variety of strategies to wear us down while it pursues its illicit nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

Expanding the American role in Yemen would serve Iran’s strategic interests rather than our own. The Iranians hope a bigger American footprint in Yemen – along with deployments in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria – will sap American resources, cost lives, sow civil discord, and reduce American prestige. Iran believes that its stock will rise accordingly.

According to news reports, the UAE has asked for U.S. help in an operation to take control of the port of Hodeidah, Yemen’s fourth largest city, sitting on the Red Sea near the entrance to the Gulf of Aden. It is a strategic location for Red Sea shipping and an important stronghold for the Iran-backed Houthi fighters. The port has played an important role in the delivery of emergency aid supplies to Yemen. Hodeidah has been bombed on different occasions by Saudi-coalition air forces, and facilities at the port – especially large cranes and dock equipment – have been destroyed.

Nicaragua’s Political Crisis Descends Into ‘Dark Days’ A surge of violence has snuffed out economic activity and dimmed prospects to resolve a revolt against longtime leader Daniel Ortega By Juan Montes and José de Córdoba

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nicaraguas-political-crisis-descends-into-dark-days-1528235963

MANAGUA, Nicaragua—A surge of violence has snuffed out economic activity and dimmed prospects to peacefully resolve a political crisis here that began as a protest against tax increases and turned into a revolt against Nicaragua’s longtime leader Daniel Ortega.

Since mid-April, more than 100 people have been killed in confrontations with police during mass protests and what human-rights groups say are paramilitary gangs aligned with Mr. Ortega’s government.

Among them were 15 people killed at a peaceful Mother’s Day protest march last month in Managua and 11 people by paramilitary groups and police in the predominantly indigenous city of Masaya this past weekend, including a 15-year-old protester who witnesses say was executed by a policewoman.

On Tuesday, violence flared in the quaint colonial city of Granada, home to hundreds of American retirees.

“We are going through very dark days,” said Humberto Belli, a former education minister. “The people are out in the street demanding that Ortega leave, but he has shown an unexpected ability to kill. We see more blood every day—three, four, five people killed on a daily basis. This has no end.”

The Organization of American States on Tuesday approved a mildly worded resolution calling for an immediate end of the violence and asking all parties to participate in peaceful dialogue. The resolution, co-sponsored by the U.S. and Nicaragua, was much weaker than declarations made Monday by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who accused Nicaraguan police and armed pro-government groups of killing dozens of protesters.

The GOP’s Welfare to Work Pitch Some good ideas for getting Americans back in the labor force.

The low U.S. labor force participation rate has several causes, but a major one is the disincentive to work created by government programs. The Republican Party’s growth wing has spent years developing ideas for addressing these incentives not to work and rise up the economic ladder, and the results are starting to show.

Last month to almost no attention the House Ways and Means Committee moved a bill from Chairman Kevin Brady that would update the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program, known as TANF. This program is the result of the Newt Gingrich-Bill Clinton 1996 welfare reform.

The American Enterprise Institute’s Robert Doar noted recently that TANF on the whole is a success. The program has declined as a share of 1996 spending while Medicaid and food stamps have exploded. One big reason is because TANF is a block grant to states, unlike the Medicaid racket that allows states to draw down more federal dollars for every new enrollee. The program even survived attempts at sabotage by the Obama Administration like expanding waivers for work requirements.

The current system requires states to engage 50% of families in work activities. But that means states can write off some of the tougher cases. And gimmicks like a “caseload reduction credit” allow states to buy down the 50% rate to a much lower benchmark or even 0% of families. Mr. Brady’s bill would require that 100% of recipients engage in work or training as a precondition of receiving benefits.

Job Openings Started Outstripping Job Seekers in March By Mairead McArdle

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/economy-jobs-report-more-openings-than-seekers/

The U.S. economy reached a record 6.7 million job openings in April, the Department of Labor stated Tuesday, hundreds of thousands more than the number of unemployed workers.

March and April both saw the number of job openings outstrip the number of unemployed workers.

There were 6.7 million job openings in April and only 6.35 million job seekers. The previous month saw 6.63 million job openings, more than the 6.59 million unemployed workers.

The number of openings has never been higher than the number of job seekers since the government started counting employment opportunities in 2000.

May saw 223,000 jobs added to the U.S. economy.

Elites Value Mellifluous Illegality over Crass Lawfulness By Victor Davis Hanson

Obama defies the Constitution but sounds ‘presidential.’ Trump follows it but sounds like a loudmouth from Queens.

Donald Trump blusters nonstop. He offers contrasting messages about whether, on any given day, he might fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller, Attorney General Jeff Sessions, or Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. His tweets are certainly not presidential, at least as the adjective is usually understood.

At perpetual campaign rallies, Trump mocks his critics, caricaturing their voices and slamming them with adolescent epithets like “Cryin’ Chuckie Schumer.” He accuses House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of being an enabler of M-13 gang members after she chastised him for calling such psychopaths “animals.” Trump has defined his own uncouthness, which so incenses his opponents, as “the new presidential.”

Yet so far, after over a year of intense investigation, Special Counsel Mueller has found no evidence that Donald Trump — or even his low-level subordinates — had ever colluded with Russian government interests to hijack the 2016 election and defeat Hillary Clinton. Indeed, Mueller has shown himself desperate to indict almost anyone connected with the Trump campaign with almost any charge he can think of — other than colluding with the Russians to warp an election, his original mandate.

Call the Trump paradox “crass lawfulness.” What drives Trump’s critics nearly crazy is not any evidence that Trump has broken federal laws per se. Instead, their rub is that there are somehow no criminal statutes against a president boorishly acting “unpresidential” in his loud quest to supercharge the economy, while undoing the entire agenda of his predecessor, who was so dearly beloved by the media, universities, Hollywood, and identity-politics groups.

Certainly, President Obama’s teleprompted speeches were mellifluous. As some sort of postmodern preacher, Obama often sermonized to Americans about the predetermined “arc of history” that purportedly bent all of us inescapably toward his own just moral version of the universe.

Masterpiece Cakeshop Is a Setback for Liberty By Andrew C. McCarthy

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/06/masterpiece-cakeshop-setback-liberty/

This was a straightforward free-expression case, and the Court could have resolved the dispute in favor of liberty.

I must respectfully disagree with the editors regarding the Supreme Court’s ruling in Masterpiece Cakeshop.

Professor Steve Vladek is right: The decision is “remarkably narrow.” One cannot help but be struck by the majority’s reticence from the outset: “Whatever the outcome of some future controversy involving facts similar to these, the Commission’s actions here violated the Free Exercise Clause.” Mind you, this is from the pen of Anthony Kennedy, a judicial supremacist who ordinarily interrupts his liberty bender only to scold the People — formerly known as the sovereign — to pipe down and quit grousing once the Robed Nine have spoken.

On this one, though, Justice Kennedy assures the Left it can grouse away. This ruling, in grudging accommodation of religious conviction, will not necessarily bear on the outcome “of some future controversy involving facts similar to these.”

To be sure, I am all for a Lincolnian construction that reduces Supreme Court rulings to a duly narrow resolution of the dispute between the litigating parties, leaving it to the republic to govern itself accountably. But that is not what’s going on here. This case is a one-off. The justices, manifestly pained, side ever so ambiguously with religious liberty, a founding principle of the nation, over gay marriage, a trendy progressive cause that would not remotely have been threatened in Colorado had Jack Phillips been left in peace to honor his convictions.

Kennedy’s sweet-mystery-of-life jurisprudence is all about exploring the exotic contours of liberty to discover heretofore unknown substantive safeguards. Not in this case, though. Confronted by a liberty twofer — an attack on free-expression rights that also burdens religious liberty — the justices punt on substantive protections for traditional religious exercise and speech (the latter liberty that could and should have decided the case in Mr. Phillips’s favor); they agitate, instead, over procedural flaws in the state’s adjudication of the conscience question.

THE SHARIA COMPLIANT PRIME MINISTER -EDWARD CLINE

https://ruleofreason.blogspot.com/

I sent this query to Theresa May at 10 Downing Street, London, a few days ago:

Is Theresa May a closet Muslim? Is she okay with female genital mutilation? Honor killings or murders? The rapes of white British women and girls? Is she okay with Hamas? Hezbollah? Censorship? With not giving Islam the raspberries? Not calling Islam totalitarian and evil? Would she have recommended to Hitler that members of The White Rose be executed? Or that Tommy Robinson be murdered by Muslim prisoners?

From all the evidence of the imposition of speech controls on Britain imposed by May, impositions punishable with arrest and imprisonment if the controls are violated, one can only make an educated guess that she is a closet Muslim. Sharia law is in the cards.

Recently, in the middle of last month, May answered a question in Parliament about freedom of speech as a “cherished” British liberty by qualifying her alleged value of it by stressing the role of “tolerance” as a kind of twin that puts a necessary gag the freedom. The implied object of the question was why criticism of Christianity was taken as a norm, but criticism of Islam was not.

May answered:

“We value freedom of expression and freedom of speech in this country. That is absolutely essential in underpinning our democracy. But we also value tolerance to others. We also value tolerance in relation to religions. This is one of the issues that we’ve looked at in the counter-extremism strategy that the government has produced. I think we need to ensure that, yes, it is right that people can have that freedom of expression. But in doing so, that right has a responsibility, too. And that is a responsibility to recognize the importance of tolerance to others.”

Tolerance? Of what? Tolerance of Islam, to May, must mean not criticizing it or any of its primitive, medieval, and patently misogynic practices, such as FGM and rape at whim and by Koranic right. Throwin

MARILYN PENN: A MODEST PROPOSAL

http://politicalmavens.com/

In keeping with the logic of Mayor de Blasio and his school chancellor, who both believe that a good solution for black and Latino minorities to get ahead in school is simply to eliminate the standardized test to get into New York’s toughest academies, why not do the same with the La Guardia school for the performing arts? Let’s forget about auditions and portfolios and try to even the number of boys who are admitted since only 26% of the student body is currently male. Why give priority to talent if you believe that intelligence and discipline, as reflected in the ability to ace a standardized test, are not essential pre-requisites for advanced academic work And why not insist that Asians are proportionately represented at La Guardia even if they don’t express as much interest in music and art. Or that girls, who currently account for only 40% of Stuyvesant are similarly favored to even their quota there.

Community activists argue that the discrimination against minorities is economic as much as racial but this is belied by the very population that is so well represented at Stuyvesant and Bronx Science – how many people know that the minority with the highest poverty rate in our city is Asian? Just as you can’t put the cart before the horse, you can’t pretend that by eliminating the screening for those who have the capacity to do advanced work, others will absorb it magically once they are in the company of advanced students The standardized test is the fairest prognosticator we have of student achievement, certainly more than subjective references from past teachers or even report cards from schools that may inflate their grades to enhance their own reputations and obscure their failures.