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February 2018

You May Have Already Won The tax cut gets more popular even though most Americans still don’t know they’re getting one.By James Freeman

Republicans enacted a tax cut in December and any day now, most of the country will find out about it. News has been travelling slowly because media folk have been diligently cataloging the relatively few examples of Americans who will not receive a direct benefit. But details on the individual and corporate tax reforms have begun to seep out of Washington.

The New York Times reports:

The tax overhaul that President Trump signed into law now has more supporters than opponents, buoying Republican hopes for this year’s congressional elections.

The growing public support for the law coincides with an eroding Democratic lead when voters are asked which party they would like to see control Congress.

The tax cut is already popular among Republicans, adds the Times, and “in contrast with many other issues — including Mr. Trump’s job approval rating — it also appears to be winning over some Democrats. Support for the law remains low among Democrats, but it has doubled over the past two months and is twice as strong as their approval of Mr. Trump today.”

It seems that the more time people have to learn about the new law, the more they like it:

Over all, 51 percent of Americans approve of the tax law, while 46 percent disapprove, according to a poll for The New York Times conducted between Feb. 5 and Feb. 11 by SurveyMonkey. Approval has risen from 46 percent in January and 37 percent in December, when the law was passed.

But the poll results also suggest that the GOP has hardly even begun to reap the political benefits. While an overwhelming majority of Americans has received a tax cut, the survey finds that most people still don’t know it. According to the Times:

Due Process Circa 2018 By Herbert London

In defending an aide accused of wife beating, President Trump asked, “Is there no such thing any longer as Due Process?” Alas, without defending all such claims, the president has a point that allegation often translates into culpability without an adherence to due process.It is fair to say that without due process, arbitrary judgment would prevail. The presumption behind this legal provision is that the state must respect the legal rights of the individual and guarantee that no accused is punished without an orderly and adequate procedure that is applicable uniformly in all cases.

With an epidemic of sexual harassment cases, due process is very often honored only in the breach. What this means, of course, is that the legal justification for punishment is dubious, even when warranted. British legal precedent passed this provision on to the New World, where it has been refined and ensconced. However, for many who have been victimized, legal machinery works too slowly and cumbersomely to generate the justice being sought.

Yet it would be a monumental mistake to assume due process can be eliminated or down graded. Kangaroo Courts relied on admission of guilt after punishment was meted out. In fact, the system of law this nation has enjoyed would be imperiled by any diminution in due process procedures.

Mueller Focuses on Molehills The mountain is whether the FBI was an unwitting agent of Russian influence. By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.

On Aug. 17, 2015, 63 days after Donald Trump’s escalator ride at Trump Tower, a lightbulb went on. Certain pro-Trump emails that colleagues and I were receiving were coming from Vladimir Putin’s internet trolls. “The Kremlin is now in the Donald’s corner . . .?” I emailed a co-worker.

The most valuable thing said last week was said by Sen. Jim Risch during a hearing, when he pointed out that the American people “realize that there’s people attempting to manipulate them.”

The least valuable was the prediction by three intelligence chiefs that Russia’s meddling will continue through 2018 and 2020. It may or may not, but what else were they going to say? There’s no upside to “estimating” anything else. This is a big part of what’s wrong with our intelligence establishment, handling inherently ambiguous matters and overwhelmingly incentivized, at least at the top, to say whatever is most politically and institutionally expedient.

Let’s be realistic: The Russian propaganda activities detailed in Robert Mueller’s indictment last week had less impact on the election than 20 seconds of cable TV coverage (pick a channel) of any of Mr. Trump’s rallies.

Only the media’s beloved hindsight fallacy suggests otherwise. In fact, Hillary Clinton’s campaign made good use of Russia to discredit Mr. Trump in the eyes of voters. What was the net effect on the vote? The press doesn’t know. Worse, it doesn’t know that it doesn’t know.

Ditto the media’s new favorite song that the U.S. has done nothing to punish Mr. Putin’s provocations. The U.S. government does not tell the public everything it does. American warplanes recently killed dozens, perhaps as many as 200, Russian mercenaries in Syria employed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a key figure in the Mueller indictment. For the first time in the Syrian theater, a man-portable antiaircraft weapon appeared in the hands of the Syrian opposition, shooting down a Russian jet. The U.S. government has denied a role, but the message, if that’s what it was, would be historically resonant. The U.S. used such missiles to raise the cost of Soviet adventurism in Afghanistan and Angola in the 1980s. CONTINUE AT SITE

Palestinian Leader Mahmoud Abbas at U.N. Says U.S. Can’t Lead Peace Effort He calls for an international conference to restart Middle East peace negotiations By Farnaz Fassihi and Felicia Schwartz

UNITED NATIONS—Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas called at the United Nations on Tuesday for an international conference in 2018 to restart peace negotiations, in a clear jab at Washington’s historically central role in resolving the peace crisis.

Mr. Abbas, addressing a monthly Security Council meeting on the Middle East, said the goal of the conference would be to expand the role of multiple world powers—including the five permanent members of the Council—along with regional actors in helping Israelis and Palestinians reach a two-state solution. Washington, he said, had “contradicted itself and its own commitments and has violated international law.”

Mr. Abbas was referring to President Donald Trump’s decision in December to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and to move the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Under international agreements and U.N. Security Council resolutions, Jerusalem is considered a “final status” issue to be determined in the last stages of peace negotiations.

“It has become impossible today for one country or state alone to solve a regional or interactional conflict,” Mr. Abbas said. “To solve the Palestine question, it is essential to establish a multilateral international mechanism emanating from an international conference.”

Mr. Abbas’s proposal was quickly countered by Israel and the U.S. Israel’s Ambassador to the U.N., Danny Danon, said the only way forward would be direct talks between Israel and Palestinian leaders and criticized Mr. Abbas for leaving the room after his speech, saying he was “running away.”

Rocketing Toward War? By Lawrence J. Haas

MILITARY SKIRMISHES AND escalating threats between Iran and Israel of late are raising the risks of a catastrophic regional war, prompting questions about what the United States should do to prevent it.

To date, President Donald Trump has focused more attention on defeating the Islamic State group in Syria than on preventing Iran from filling the resulting void with its own military and proxy forces and, in the process, further implanting itself in Syria as part of its quest for a land corridor all the way to the Mediterranean Sea.

Now, Iran’s growing recklessness is attracting more high-level notice in Washington, and Trump’s national security adviser, Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, told a security conference in Munich over the weekend that with Iran arming its proxies with more firepower, “the time is now, we think, to act against Iran.”

Notwithstanding the outsized global attention on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Israel has long viewed Iran as its biggest security threat. Iran’s leaders continue to promise Israel’s destruction while expanding their military capabilities. At rallies this month to mark the Islamic Revolution’s 39th anniversary, the regime paraded new home-made ballistic missiles that can carry nuclear warheads and reach Israel, adding to what is already the region’s largest arsenal of ballistic missiles.

Tit-for-tat Israeli-Iranian military exchanges in recent days, however, have brought longstanding tensions to a boiling point because they mark an escalation of attacks that cross previous red lines.

KILL CHIC: VICTOR DAVIS HANSON

In movies, novels, music, and art, progressives murder their enemies, including presidents, in myriad ways.We live in a society in which gratuitous violence is the trademark of video games, movies, and popular music. Kill this, shoot that in repugnant detail becomes a race to the visual and spoken bottom.

We have gone from Sam Peckinpah’s realistic portrayal of violent death to a gory ritual of metal ripping flesh, as if it is some sort of macabre ballet. Rap music has institutionalized violence against women and the police — to the tune of billions in profits, largely as a way for suburban kids to find vicarious street authenticity. And this idea of metaphorically cutting, bleeding, or shooting those whom you don’t like without real consequences has seeped into the national political dialogue.

For example, why does popular culture wink and nod at the widespread metaphorical killing of Republican presidents? Liberals used to believe that words mattered and images had consequences; the casual glorification of carnage trivialized violence and only made it more acceptable — and likely.

In 2017, the obsessive hatred of Trump led, for instance, to many obscenities: Madonna told us she dreamed of blowing up the White House, comedian Kathy Griffin posed with a bloody facsimile of Trump’s head, Snoop Dog shot a Trump likeliness in a video, a Shakespearean company ritually stabbed Trump-Caesar every night on stage, Johnny Depp joked, “When was the last time an actor assassinated a president? … It has been a while, and maybe it is time.”

Dopey Russian ads didn’t swing voters — federal coverups did By James Bovard

Much of the media coverage is hailing Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s indictment of 13 Russian trolls as stunning proof of foreign hacking of the 2016 election. Mueller may have other cards up his sleeve and the jury is still out. But the U.S. government likely duped far more voters than did the Russians on Election Day 2016.

Mueller revealed that 13 Russians and 3 companies were allegedly involved in attempting to sow dissent in the U.S. prior to and after the election. Most of their spending on Facebook ads occurred after the election, and they included spurring both pro-Trump and anti-Trump outbursts. Many of the ads were dopey even by Facebook standards, including a picture of Jesus getting ready to punch Hillary Clinton. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein declared that there is “no allegation in the indictment of any effect on the outcome of the American election.”

At least one of Mueller’s allegations blames Russians for a homegrown political debacle. Mueller charged that Russian trolls conspired to “defraud the United States by impairing, obstructing, and defeating the lawful functions of the Federal Election Commission.” But this is akin to blaming panhandlers for the notorious unreliability of the Washington subway system.

The FEC has long been “borderline useless,” as a New York Times editorial scoffed in 2011. Federal Election Commissioner Ann Ravel complained last year that, thanks to FEC gridlock, “major violations are swept under the rug and the resulting dark money has left Americans uniformed about the sources of campaign spending … violators of the law are given a free pass.” Common Cause, People for the American Way, and other liberal groups complained in 2016 that the FEC “is a failed, dysfunctional agency … Campaigns, political operatives, parties, and independent spenders know they can operate with impunity … for campaign finance violations.” FEC negligence permitted far greater violations of campaign law than the $1.25 million a month the Russian trolls allegedly spent.