RUTHFULLY YOURS

Lost in the rising tensions between Russia and the U.S. over Syria are the gains Iran continues to make.spectator.org/birth-of-a-new-persian-empire/

The United States is gradually being drawn into the war in Syria. That war began as a conflict in which we had no national security interest. That changed because two of our principal adversaries, Russia and Iran, took over that war, making the conflict much larger than just a civil war against the terrorist regime of Bashar Assad.

Syria still isn’t worth — in Bismarckian terms — the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier, far less an American soldier, sailor, airman or Marine. Three have died there, so far. One was the victim of an improvised explosive device, one was killed in a truck accident, and one reportedly died of natural causes. There will be more.

One American, a journalist named Austin Tice, is reportedly being held hostage by the Syrian government.

Things have been heating up in Syria lately. Two Sundays ago, a Navy F/A-18 shot down a Syrian Su-22 after it had dropped a bomb close to the Kurdish forces allied with us in striking at ISIS. After that, Russia announced that it would have its anti-aircraft missile batteries target any U.S. aircraft that strayed west of the Euphrates River.

Shortly after that, the Russians fired several Kaliber cruise missiles at ISIS targets to demonstrate that their naval forces in the area are as powerful as ours, though they obviously aren’t. And after that, a Russian fighter flew recklessly close (reportedly within five feet) to a Navy P-8 Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic near Kaliningrad. After that, a USAF F-15 intercepted (safely) a Russian aircraft carrying Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, also flying near Kaliningrad.

Wars have a way of spreading quickly but the flybys are, like the Russian cruise missile strike, of no real consequence other than to heighten tensions between the two nations.

Lost amid the underwhelming coverage of these incidents is the very real problem of what Iran is doing and what it’s accomplishing. A new Persian Empire is being born and we are not trying to stop it.

Ever since former president Obama pulled our troops out of Iraq, Iran has turned that nation into a Shiite satrap. It is “governed” by a Shiite-friendly regime and truly ruled by Iran through its Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and Shiite militia forces more-or-less controlled by the IRGC. The IRGC is under direct command of the Tehran ayatollahs.

Iran and Russia both want hegemony over the entire Middle East. Russia’s permanent air and naval bases in Syria give them a grasp of Syria that can be extended almost at will. Iran, having grasped Iraq, now wants a clear path to the Mediterranean. That path is being created through Syria to Beirut, Lebanon where the Iranian Hizb’allah terrorist force has established itself as a ruling political party as well as a terrorist network with global aspirations. (I use Hizb’allah — as the terrorist network uses it, literally “the party of god” — instead of the bowdlerized “Hezbollah” commonly used by U.S. and European media.)

China will be in the back of many minds as India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares to meet US President Donald Trump in Washington. On the agenda are US drone sales to India, boosting intelligence, and military cooperation between New Delhi, Hanoi, and Tokyo — but perhaps most importantly, there is an initiative that could undermine Beijing’s pet foreign strategy, One Belt, One Road (OBOR).

In the past few days, the Indian press in fact beat the drums, arguing that the signing of the UN TIR Convention is a move to counter OBOR. The TIR system is the global customs transit system with the widest geographical coverage. As with other customs transit procedures, the TIR procedure enables goods to move under customs control across international borders without the payment of duties and taxes.

Actually India’s TIR will in no way challenge, at least for now, China’s OBOR. It covers only India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan; it doesn’t stretch to dozens of countries like OBOR; and it is not backed by a new rich international financial institution with over 100 billion of dollars of capital, like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

But the four countries’ trade and transportation agreement already creates a bloc with a population of about 1.4 billion, the same as or more than China’s. These people are younger than China’s aging population due to decades of one-child policy, the elite speak good English, they use British law and are full accustomed to international norms. All these elements are rare commodities in China.

All these points are in part or totally foiled by Modi’s dwindling enthusiasm for reforms of his internal market. Lack of infrastructure, excesses in bureaucracy, and poor progress in market liberalization have so far sapped international enthusiasm for the theoretically huge potential of the Indian economy. The declining GDP growth rate, which dropped below China’s in 2016 after a couple of years of surging ahead of it, is telling of all the problems facing Modi. Besides, the rivalry with Pakistan poses an objective barrier to India’s land route to Europe, bottling New Delhi in favor of Beijing in Eurasia.

On the other hand, the new TIR agreement could assist in breaking India’s internal barriers and help create a better unified market of goods and services.