JUNCKER BRACING FOR EU’S DOWNFALL, PRESENTS 5 FUTURE SCENARIOS By Vincent van den Born
https://gatestone.eu/eu-future-plans/
Before its official presentation by one the EU presidents, Jean-Claude Juncker, this afternoon at 15.00, the White Paper that presents the EU Commission’s vision of the future of the EU has already been leaked. Politico has been able to get a hold of what looks like a final draft version of the document and published it (PDF). The report offers five possible scenarios.
Scenario 1, carrying on, mostly means ‘more of the same’. Especially a sentence such as “there is incremental progress on improving the functioning of the single currency in order to drive growth and prevent shocks starting at home or abroad” indicates the same sort of ‘creeping barrage’ of further centralisation we see now.
Scenario 2, is nothing but the single market, in which the EU would secede federal control over immigration, security and defence. However, it should be called ‘nothing but the single market, and the shared currency that’s dragging it down’, because it says “the euro facilitates trade exchanges but growing divergence and limited cooperation are major sources of vulnerability.” Those that were hoping for construction similar to the EEC will be sorely disappointed.
Scenarios 3 and 4 are more or less hybrids, where the EU either divests itself from tasks, or from countries.
In scenario 5, the so-called “Verhofstadt option,” the sovereignty of member states is severely limited, with the EU taking over foreign policy and building up a European Defence Union.
This scenario also claims a “significantly modernised and increased [EU budget], backed up by own resources; a euro area stabilisation function is operational,” effectively leading to the formation of some sort of European Superstate at the EU level.
Commenting on the White Paper, Pieter Cleppe, the head of the Brussels office of the Open Europe think-tank, is summarised in the Telegraph as saying:
“the Juncker blueprint was shaping up to be a repeat of tired old EU dogma, rather than a genuine attempt to address the EU structural issues,” and quoted as saying it presents “a lost opportunity for the EU to reinvent itself after Brexit. Turning it into a mere trade-facilitating arrangement could have increased popular support.”
According to Reuters, Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas said that
“After [the March 25 summit in] Rome we want to launch a public debate on these options (…) this has to be about the people and we very much hope that the leaders will launch such a process.”
Which is a bit rich, coming from a Commission that has time and time again, decided to ignore the wishes of the people made clear in referenda. The people have already spoken and it does not seem they will be taken in by these five scenarios.
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