RUTHFULLY YOURS

In 1904, after the long British struggle to control Afghanistan, and the Russian Empire’s efforts to expand into central Asia (and take control from the British), a British geographer, Halford MacKinder, published a paper suggesting that he who controlled the heartland of Asia would control Asia itself, and by extension, the world. In short, MacKinder explained why England and Russia had been vying for control of central Asia, what was known as ‘the Great Game.’ His theory, the Heartland Theory, was popular with the Russians (even before MacKinder gave it a name), and later with the Soviets, and has since been adopted by China.

 

Interestingly, an American strategist, Alfred Thayer Mahan, had postulated in 1900 that Asia could be controlled from the sea. Mahan suggested that control of the Suez Canal and control of Singapore and the Strait of Malacca on one side of the South China Sea (SCS) would give a great power – one with a powerful navy – the ability to control trade into and out of Asia and therefore accomplish the same thing the Heartland Theory later suggested.

 

In the years following WWII the US Navy had an extensive presence in the SCS. However, the US slowly stopped paying attention to the SCS during the 1990s, following the break-up of the Soviet Union.

 

In 1947 the Republic of China published a map claiming ownership of most of the islands in the SCS. This map – the ‘9 Dash Line’ – was later taken by the People’s Republic of China as defining their claim in the SCS, and after some minor variations, they have used it to justify their current activities.

 

But until several years ago the Chinese claim mattered little. In the last several years, however, recognizing the extent of the power vacuum, China has been aggressively building on reefs and islands in the SCS. China intends to control the SCS. A new great game, between two nuclear powers, has started in the South China Sea.

Several points need to be made.

First, ownership of theses islands has been disputed for decades. All have multiple claimants: China (and Taiwan), Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia. China is ignoring all claims. Second, most of these islands are very small, and in some cases are – or were until recently – uninhabitable, nearly awash, with no fresh water and often no shelter.

 

Why should we care?

 

Look at a map of the SCS. It’s roughly the size of the Mediterranean Sea. But, in the south-west corner is Singapore, sitting beside the world’s busiest strait, the Strait of Malacca. South of Singapore 450 miles is the Sunda Strait, and southeast of Singapore 850 miles is the Lombok Strait. These three great straits constitute the east exits from and entrances to the Indian Ocean. Through these straits pass more than 10% of all international trade, trillions of dollars in goods every year. Through these straits pass most of the oil that goes to China, Korea and Japan. The straits are the real prize.

 

China has filled the vacuum in the SCS, the vacuum created by US focusing elsewhere and a US Navy now too small to perform the mission of strategic presence in the SCS and elsewhere. Meanwhile, China is building a large port facility and naval base in Djibouti, on the opposite side of the Indian Ocean, at the Red Sea’s southern end.

 

Ashore, China is engaged in economic and power diplomacy across central Asia, while laying railroads and building roads through Tibet into Pakistan and other central Asian powers.

 

In short, China is playing a new Great Game, and they’ve substantially expanded their navy to allow them to do so. If unchecked, they’ll continue to expand until they either have control of the trade routes into and out of Asia, and de facto control of much of Asia, or until they trample across someone’s national interests and there’s a war. The Game has advanced too far for easy or quick answers. It’s going to require subtlety, a focus on rebuilding our Navy, a deft hand with our allies in Asia, and a long-term, consistent effort to face down China without starting a war.

 

Or we can concede control to China and trust that they’ll deal fairly with all concerned once they control the trade routes. I wish I knew how the candidates intend to address China and South China Sea.