Front-Runners Give Ground as Rivals Make Mark in Iowa Donald Trump fell short, Hillary Clinton flirted with disaster, and their main rivals had strong nights By Gerald F. Seib
http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-iowans-entertain-radical-messages-from-donald-trump-and-bernie-sanders-amid-seeming-prosperity-1454342545
Ted Cruz did what he had to do. Donald Trump fell well short of the shock-and-awe moment he hoped would set up a blitz through the rest of the country. Marco Rubio bought himself a seat at the big table. And Hillary Clinton flirted all night with disaster.
Those were the big story lines that emerged from Iowa’s caucuses Monday night. It’s early—ridiculously early, actually—to draw too many conclusions. But the results suggested that a fight still lies ahead on the Democratic side, and a potentially much bigger and longer battle is ahead on the Republican one.
Perhaps most important, the Iowa results suggest that those fights will take place in two parties deeply divided between insiders and outsiders, between young and old, and between the most and least wealthy. The situation is volatile, and, as a consequence, unpredictable.
By late last night, it was clear that Mr. Cruz rode his strong support among evangelical conservatives to a victory. He had to do that to be a viable long-term candidate; if he couldn’t charge ahead in a state where evangelical voters traditionally have an outsize influence, his candidacy would have been seriously compromised.
Mr. Trump calculated that he could make a late surge in Iowa, put away Mr. Cruz and pave the way for a big win in New Hampshire to start putting away the competition. That didn’t happen. His brand has been that he is a winner; it remains to be seen what the Iowa outcome does to that brand.
On the other hand, Mr. Rubio simply needed to do well enough to establish himself as the third player in a three-handed game of high-stakes poker going forward. He did more than that—much more, in fact. He was the one candidate who significantly outperformed expectations, and that gives him the biggest dose of rocket fuel out of Iowa.
On the Democratic side, Mrs. Clinton was clinging to a narrow lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders through the night. In mathematical terms, they had fought nearly to a draw, and that carries Mr. Sanders to New Hampshire’s primary strong enough to be the favorite there, next door to his home state of Vermont.
But his road is much rougher after that, as the race moves south and west to Clinton strongholds. In that sense, the key for Mrs. Clinton was simply to avoid embarrassment in Iowa.
So nothing is settled, and nothing was destined to be. Yet Iowa’s importance may lie elsewhere, for the results tell us much about two parties that are in significant flux.
On the GOP side, Mr. Trump has charged in and either pulled in alongside, or consolidated behind him, the votes of nontraditional Republicans: less-educated, lower-income and deeply unhappy with the party’s leaders.
Indeed, entrance polls showed that Mr. Trump won among Republicans with a high school education or less, lost among college graduates and those with post-graduate degrees. He won in rural areas, not in cities and suburbs. His widest margin of victory was among those who wanted somebody from outside the establishment.
Meanwhile, Mr. Rubio emerges looking an awful lot like the man mainstream party voters can embrace. His support was fairly even across age and demographic groups, but it bulged among Republicans whose top priority was simply finding a candidate who could win the general election in November. Among those voters, Mr. Rubio led Mr. Trump 44% to 24%.
He prevailed among voters who wanted experience in politics rather than somebody from outside the establishment. And he won among those who decided whom to support in the last few days—suggesting, at least, that Republicans agonizing about their decision decided to choose a safe bet rather than make some kind of statement.
And Mr. Cruz? He fell into a familiar Republican lane, winning among evangelicals and the party’s most conservative voters. Those are voters not comfortable with Mr. Trump and not convinced of Mr. Rubio.
Mr. Sanders won convincingly among the lowest-income Democratic voters. Mrs. Clinton won convincingly among the highest-income Democratic voters. He won easily among very liberal voters. She won easily among moderates.
Caucuses and primaries bring out the divides, of course, but these are surprising ones in an unconventional year. And they may not close anytime soon.
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