STELLA PAUL: AMAZON GOES POSTAL

http://www.leebsmarketforecast.com/content/the_complete_investor/amazon-goes-postal
The bride was gorgeous; the groom was old and arthritic, and everyone agreed they were an odd match. When Amazon married the United States Postal Service for its new Sunday package delivery service, who got the better deal?

Most people probably would pick USPS, the quasi-government agency operating with all the fiscal sanity of Obamacare. Prevented by Congress from implementing cost-cutting measures, USPS has lost a staggering $45 billion since 2007, and already has defaulted three times on its obligations. Its business model is kaput; first-class mail volume decreased by 30 percent over seven years, and the future looks even more bleak.

Now, just when USPS was begging Congress to allow stoppage of Saturday mail deliveries, along comes Amazon, the world’s largest online retailer, with a spiffy Sunday package-delivery deal. After November’s rollout in New York and Los Angeles, Amazon plans to expand its Sunday USPS delivery to Dallas, Houston, New Orleans and Phoenix. That’s a whole lot of packages.

Despite the sudden cash infusion into USPS, I bet Amazon will get the better deal. In an age of aggressive, frequently partisan government coercion, Amazon Chairman and CEO Jeff Bezos perhaps just bought himself some valuable protection from government prosecution.

Here’s why Bezos, a multi-billionaire who started Amazon in his garage in 1994, probably selected USPS, which delivers an anemic 8 percent of domestic packages. More logical choices would have been UPS, with 60 percent of the market, or FedEx, at 30 percent. These days, if businesses want to survive, they must hustle in Washington D.C. As money flows out of New York and California to the nation’s capital, the D.C. metro area now boasts six out of ten of America’s wealthiest counties. Lobbyists, venture capitalists, and executives are flooding into the influence zone, making insider deals for the favored few and shutting out the hinterland plebes.

In August, Bezos bought the dying Washington Post for $250 million in personal pocket change. This premiere news platform gives him some influence over Washington policy-makers, to help shape U.S. opinions, as he expands Amazon into entertainment production, grocery delivery, consumer electronics, and much more.

Now, with Amazon’s USPS deal, Bezos has directly partnered with the government, giving the feds a stake in his success. The more Amazon delivers for the government, the more the government may play nice with Amazon, and possibly, turn its prosecutorial fury on Amazon’s arch-rival, Wal-Mart Stores.

What’s the real intent?

We may see some inkling of what’s in store (pun intended), in the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) announcement of plans to prosecute Wal-Mart, America’s largest employer, for “widespread violations of its workers rights.”

Celebrating the news: Making Change at Wal-Mart, an activist “coalition of Wal-Mart associates, union members, small business owners, religious leaders, community organizations, women’s advocacy groups, multi-ethnic coalitions, elected officials and ordinary citizens.”

Wal-Mart makes a tasty target for union organizers, yearning for its 1.3 million American employees, or, more specifically, their potential dues. Inevitably, a big chunk of those union dues would land in Democratic National Committee coffers, just like the dues from the National Education Association and SEIU.

That prospect could give Obama’s Department of Justice some incentive to harass Wal-Mart, and lend its prestige to the “social justice” campaign against the Arkansas-based corporation, the world’s largest retailer.

Yet Amazon, which Wal-Mart sued in 1998 for stealing its trade secrets, could make a ripe target for “social justice” activism, too. Employees in its massive warehouses have complained of harsh working conditions. Its management likewise resisted unionization efforts. And some individual sellers have accused Amazon of closing their accounts and withholding payment.

So far, however, Amazon retains its user-friendly, populist vibe and has escaped open government vilification. And now, valuable government good will from Amazon’s sweetheart USPS deal, in an era when the federal government produces 3,600 new regulations a year, may prove the online retailing giant’s ultimate asset.

Free market enthusiasts can admire the savvy that made Jeff Bezos a reputed $32.9 billion, but still feel uneasy about the unprecedented Amazon/USPS deal. Is it exclusive? Can Wal-Mart or Target or Costco hire USPS for Sunday delivery, too?

What about the small-time players, trying to build the next Amazon in their garage? Will they get a shot at this customer-winning Sunday delivery service, too? And how about taxpayers, who foot the bill for massive USPS retiree pensions? Will they eventually have to cede the USPS real estate at many failing post offices to Amazon?

Jeff Bezos seems to have made a smart play that would have been inconceivable before our golden age of crony capitalism. Even marriages of convenience can go bust, though. And beware of a spurned government suitor seeking revenge with help from the IRS, DOJ, OSHA, NLRB, and EPA.

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