YORAM ETTINGER: ARAB SPRING? NOT QUITE
Arab Spring? Not Quite
Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: US-Israel Initiative”
YnetNews, April 29, 2011
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4062310,00.html
The 19th century violence on the European Street signaled the arrival of the
Spring of Nations: national cohesion, liberty and rebellion against tyranny.
In contrast, the 2011 Middle East upheaval exposes the Arab Street: No
“spring” and no “nations,” but the exacerbation of
tribal-ethnic-religious-geographic loyalties, splits and power struggles,
the intensification of domestic and intra-Arab fragmentation, the escalation
of intolerance, violence and hate-culture, the absence of stability, the
deepening of uncertainty, exposing the tenuous nature of Arab regimes, the
ruthless submission of democracy-seeking elements and the perpetuation of
ruthless tyrannies.
The 19th century Spring of Nations was energized by waves of enthusiastic
optimism. On the other hand, the 2011 delusion of the Spring of Nations is
exposed by the impotence, despair and frustration of pro-democracy Arab
activists, who are forced to emigrate rather than be persecuted.
The expectation for a near-term Arab Spring of Nations is detached from
Middle East reality, could produce another victory of wishful-thinking over
experience, already leads to a delusion-based policy and risks a lethal
boomerang caused by delusional yearning.
In February, 2010, President Obama appointed a new ambassador to Damascus –
following four years of diplomatic absence – “because Assad could play a
constructive role in the Middle East.” In July 2000, Western policy-makers
and public opinion molders cheered the prospect of Spring in Damascus upon
the succession of Hafiz Assad by his son, Bashar Assad. They were not
alarmed by Bashar’s 97% victory in two elections. They assumed that as an
eye doctor, who interned in London, who is fluent in English and French, who
was the chairman of the Syria Internet Association, and married to a
London-educated wife who advocates women rights, he must be a moderate. They
sacrificed documented facts – about the Assad family, the ruling Alawite
minority, the Damascus vision and the centrality of the strategic
cooperation between Syria and Iran – on the altar of the yearning of peace
with Syria. The current turmoil in Syria exposes Western oversimplification
and the authentic merciless nature of this Syrian despot.
In February 2011, President Obama and Secretary Clinton hastily proclaimed
the ushering of democracy into Arab lands and the reincarnation of the
spirit of MLK and Ghandi in the streets of Tunisia and Egypt. However,
their expectations are thwarted by the thousands of moderate Tunisians who
are escaping to the Italian Mediterranean island of Lampedusa and by the
horrific campaign of killings, murder, torture, hate and corruption, which
has accompanied recent volcanic eruptions in Arab countries.
In 1993, upon signing the Oslo Accord, the New Middle East visionaries
announced Spring in Ramallah, the supremacy of standard-of-living over
ideological and military considerations, the age of no-wars and the
irrelevance of borders and military forces. But, the conduct of the
Palestinian Authority (epitomized by hate-education), the wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan, the intensification of Islamic terrorism, the Iranian threat,
the proliferation of advanced missiles, the murder of Lebanese Prime
Minister Hariri, the wars in Lebanon and Gaza and the current Middle East
upheaval, crashed the superficial New Middle East and Spring in Ramallah
visions. However, in order to sustain the “peace process,” Israeli and
Western “elites” have ignored the unprecedented Arafat and Abu
Mazen-initiated hate-education and terrorism.
In January 2005, they were further encouraged by Abu Mazen’s rise to the
chairmanship of the Palestinian Authority. They would not be diverted from
the pursuit of their visions by Abu Mazen’s track record: Introducing
hate-education into Palestinian schools, mosques and media, subversion
against Arab regimes, holocaust denial, enrollment in KGB and Muslim
Brotherhood schooling, the embracing of ruthless Soviet Bloc Communist
regimes, centrality in the 1972 Munich Massacre and the recent accord with
Hamas.
The 1989 dismantling of the USSR and the fall of the Berlin Wall triggered a
Spring of Nations hope and a New World Order concept, which was swiftly
transformed into a New World Disorder. While the Spring of Nations
introduced democracy into Eastern Europe, it could not advance the cause of
liberty in Arab lands. 1,400 years of Muslim-Arab tyranny, guided by an
imperialistic, intolerant and violent religion, which embraces terrorism and
tolerates “female circumcision” (genital mutilation), constitutes too high a
hurdle for the Spring of Nations. The British Empire attempted to
democratize Arab countries – but failed, due to the lack of essential
infrastructure of democratic values and education in Arab lands.
The turmoil in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Oman and Syria (and
you ain’t seen nothing yet…), coupled with the expected US evacuation from
Iraq and Afghanistan, the Iranian threat and the inherent non-reliability of
international or Western guarantees and forces do not usher in Spring; they
do usher in lethal geo-political twisters and floods, which require the
retaining – and not the giveaway – of critical Israeli security assets.
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