There are four coterminous revolutions going on in the Middle East. Secular, well meaning revolutionaries are convinced they can foment a contemporary version of the American Revolution with institutions that guarantee liberty. There are street revolutionaries eager to take advantage of the chaos for personal gain, not unlike members of the Committee for Safety in the French Revolution. Small insignificant parties can use street mobilization to build political power as the Bolsheviks did in the Russian Revolution. After all, the word Bolshevik means majority, even though it was a small minority party. And last there are those intent on pursuing a theological revolution and see the unfolding events as a way to build caliphates across the region. This is the obvious plan of the Muslim Brotherhood.

How things will shake out depends on the will and potential influence of the United States, Iran and the religious parties. In my judgment Libya will be the most bloody, Egypt the most enigmatic and Jordan the most mild. The nation that has the best shot at succeeding is the one the United States is willing to support financially and unconditionally. But it is unfortunate that the White House has a Hamlet-like pose and policy seems to emerge from committee discussion without a clear undeviating voice.