JOHN BOLTON: LOCKERBIE AND BP MATTER MORE THAN OBAMA
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BP and Lockerbie matter more than Obama
Yesterday at 7:57am
The Times
July 20, 2010
By John Bolton
David Cameron’s meetings with Barack Obama today will brim with surface conviviality. Mr Obama now does conviviality well, having recently practised with Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister. Mr Obama spent his first 18 months in office kicking around Israel in general and Mr Netanyahu in particular. Now, facing November elections that could devastate the Democratic Party’s substantial congressional majorities, Mr Obama smiled at Mr Netanyahu, spoke soothing words about the US-Israel relationship, and even shook Mr Netanyahu’s hand for photographers crowding the Oval Office.
Mr Cameron can expect the same treatment. Mr Obama has learnt from the parable where an experienced politician says to a newcomer: “Remember, son, in politics sincerity is the key. Once you learn to fake sincerity, you’ve got it made.” So along with Mr Obama’s conviviality, there will be a lot of sincerity going around.
Fundamentally, however, this encounter is a distraction for Mr Obama. He is busy pursuing his domestic agenda, signing today, for example, legislation making big changes in US financial markets. Following the successful passage of healthcare legislation that will drag America into European-style nationalised medicine, and looking forward to Senate confirmation of his second Supreme Court nominee, Mr Obama should be riding high.
On the contrary, however, the American people aren’t buying what he is selling. Mr Obama has focused on long-standing Democratic ideological objectives, successfully to be sure, but that is not what the voters wanted. They fully blame George W. Bush for the economic mess, but they expected Mr Obama to fix it, not to pursue radical policies tangential to their main concerns. Accordingly, Mr Obama’s poll numbers are at record low levels.
So Mr Obama will be on his best behaviour, perhaps even referring to the “special relationship”. After all, in a recent interview with South African media, he condemned “radical Islam” after assiduously avoiding the term previously.
Of course, there may be a few bumps. After glad-handing Mr Netanyahu, Mr Obama opined that his own unpopularity among Israelis arose because his middle name was Hussein, rather than because of his undisguised pressure on their Government in the zombie-like “Middle East peace process”. And Mr Obama’s main complaint to South Africa’s media about al-Qaeda was that it was racist: “They do not regard African life as valuable in and of itself,” presumably as compared with their views on other kinds of life.
Mr Cameron should be satisfied with well-executed photo opportunities, smiles all around, and handshakes where the leaders gaze deeply into each other’s eyes. It could have been much worse, since they will find little common ground on reviving their respective domestic economies, unlike Labour, whose views were closer to Mr Obama’s heart. But the two leaders will agree that national security policy is not their top priority, not what pumps their adrenalin.
So this will not be a meeting like Reagan and Thatcher during the days of winning the Cold War, or even those of Bush and Blair launching the War on Terror. No doubt, the current crises in Iraq and Afghanistan will be important topics of discussion, not to mention the proliferation threats of Iran and North Korea. Unlike Mr Bush, however, Mr Obama will be happy emphasising withdrawal from Iraq, and looking forward to next summer when he can begin withdrawing from Afghanistan. Nor will Mr Obama show any particular eagerness to spring into action against the nuclear weapons programmes in Iran and North Korea, or the consequent proliferation around the world. Mr Cameron will be the closest thing to a hawk in the room.
Instead, while the agenda will be long, it may well be remembered primarily because of the company formerly known as British Petroleum.
Fortunately for both leaders, on one front at least their timing is good, with every indication that BP’s leaking oil well in the Gulf of Mexico is apparently now plugged, and only a matter of time before it is permanently sealed. BP, once known for its condescending motto “Beyond petroleum”, can then focus on cleaning up, and its executives can again attend yacht races without criticism.
Instead, another grubby oil issue will trouble the surface gentility between Mr Obama and Mr Cameron, namely the unashamedly mercantilist efforts of the former prime ministers, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, to open Libya to British investment, perhaps especially for BP. Mr Brown’s Government perpetrated the worst perfidy, pressuring Scotland to grant “compassionate release” to the terrorist Abdul Baset Ali al-Megrahi, convicted of the Lockerbie bombing. Al-Megrahi was expected to die of cancer within three months of his release in August last year, but he is still alive. His 270 victims, however, are still dead.
This rankles with Americans, including the four Democratic senators from New York and New Jersey, and the Democratic Senator John Kerry, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who has scheduled hearings on BP’s role for July 29. Note that the assault on BP is led by liberal Democrats, not cowboy refugees from the Bush Administration. If anyone in Britain underestimates American outrage about al-Megrahi’s release, let them think again.
Mr Cameron himself faces no personal downside. He rightly noted when al-Megrahi was freed that the decision was “completely nonsensical”.
Last week Mr Cameron reaffirmed that springing the terrorist was a mistake. Rather than defending BP, he should condemn the release, meet families of the Pan Am 103 victims, and promise full co-operation with the Senate investigation.
Then, Mr Cameron should tell BP to hire the PR firms that have served his image so well, and get back to No 10 as soon as he can. He can worry about his next meeting with Mr Obama some time after the US November midterm elections, when the President will need a little help from his friends, sincere or otherwise. Mr Cameron can then also start scheduling meetings with the growing list of 2012 Republican presidential candidates.
John Bolton was the US Permanent Representative to the United Nations,
2005-06
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