FRANKLY VULNERABLE IN MASSACHUSETTS?

JANUARY 28, 2010, 2:11 P.M. ET

More Massachusetts Miracles?
Barney Frank is suddenly sounding a lot more moderate.

By JAMES FREEMAN

In the wake of Scott Brown’s Senate election victory in Massachusetts, Republicans are increasingly confident they can break the Democratic monopoly on the state’s 10 House seats. In fact, Massachusetts GOP chair Jennifer Nassour says: “There is not a seat that is not vulnerable.” Rep. Niki Tsongas has to be among the most nervous incumbents. Every town in her 5th District voted for Mr. Brown over Democrat Martha Coakley. In the 2nd District, 90% of the precincts went to Mr. Brown, suggesting Rep. Richard Neal also faces a tough autumn.

Also vulnerable is Rep. Stephen Lynch, perhaps explaining why he was the most strident of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s critics in yesterday’s AIG hearing. His 9th District voters went for Mr. Brown by an estimated 57% to 43%. In the 10th, Rep. Bill Delahunt represents Cape Cod and the islands of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. He coasted to re-election in 2008, but he’s just attracted a well-known, seasoned opponent in former Massachusetts Treasurer Joe Malone. Mr. Malone no doubt noticed that while the islands are still solidly liberal, most of the mainlanders in the district went for Mr. Brown.

And then there’s Rep. Barney Frank, representing the Boston suburbs of the 4th District. After the special election, Mr. Frank urged fellow Dems to be more cautious on health care. On Friday, he surprised many onlookers by calling for the abolition of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the profligate mortgage giants that Mr. Frank long shielded from market competition and federal oversight. Whether Mr. Frank is simply looking to rebrand Fan and Fred or is actually willing to let taxpayers off the mortgage hook remains to be seen. But he’s suddenly sounding a lot more moderate, possibly because he may be the most vulnerable of the state’s incumbents.

Mr. Frank is the most powerful lawmaker in the Massachusetts House delegation given his chairmanship of the banking committee, but he also managed to win reelection by a smaller percentage than any of his Massachusetts colleagues in the blowout Democratic year of 2008. Yes, his 68% tally that year would still be the envy of most pols, but it was his worst showing since 1992. In many years, he ran unopposed, collecting virtually 100% of the vote. And because Mr. Frank’s decline began even before the recent rebellion over health-care reform and deficit spending, a good bet is that he’s been neglecting basic constituent services. Several potential GOP candidates already have expressed interest in the 4th District. Whoever the Republican is, Mr. Frank could be facing his toughest campaign since the early 1980s thanks to the anti-Washington tide.

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