MY PREDICTION IS THAT BASHING ISRAEL WILL REMAIN THE NATIONAL SPORT OF THE EUROSNOTS…RSK

Europe 2010 preview

At the close of the “noughties”, Europe will still be grappling with the aftermath of the worst economic crisis since the 1930s as the 21st century shows the world still to be an uncertain place.

Britain’s 2010 general election is likely to affect relations with other European countries

1) Other European Union countries will view British general elections, expected in May, with trepidation. The Conservatives, who are expected to win, have promised to renegotiate the balance of power between Britain and EU by “repatriating” social legislation. David Cameron faces isolation and hostility over the issue and other EU governments have ruled out any negotiations, especially on opt-out that are regarded as “social dumping” and as conferring unfair economic advantage on Britain.

2) Whatever the political complexion of the British government, the City of London, the, now tarnished, jewel in Britain’s economic crown will face unprecedented EU regulation and stiff competition from Paris and Frankfurt. The British economy, which most continental European regard as too dependent on the City, will struggle behind other EU countries, particularly Germany and France, to come out of recession in 2010.

3) High levels of public debt across Europe will act as a drag on recovery, especially in Britain, which is forecast to trail at least a year behind the rest of Europe. Questions over the high burden of government debt in Britain will continue to hit the pound and growing concerns over Greece’s ability to pay back loans will hurt the euro. Austerity programmes in both Britain and Greece, along with other eurozone members Ireland, Spain and Portugal, will be politically painful and could spark social conflict.

4) Germany, Europe’s largest economy came out of recession at the end of last year, will be carefully watched as the pathfinder for the rest of the continent. Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, has been praised for using state subsidies to keep people in work but the bill will fall due in 2010. If Germany, and Chancellor Merkel, fudges the difficult political test of slashing public spending and reforming bloated state budgets, such as healthcare, then there is little hope the rest of Europe can follow suit.

5) Now the EU has its long awaited Lisbon Treaty, the pressure is on the Union’s to pack a bigger punch on the global stage, ambitions that will be tested by a number of critical G20 and IMF summits through out the year. Plans to set up a new Brussels diplomatic corps, the European External Action Service, are already mired in turf wars and failure could damage the EU’s flaky reputation on the international stage.

6) Nicolas Sarkozy, the French President, faces a key political test in March regional elections. The Socialists, despite their political disarray, control 20 out of 22 of France’s regions, taken at the height of Jacque Chirac’s unpopularity, and President Sarkozy must seal his political authority by doing well. Failure will damage his ability to push through critical pension reforms against trade union opposition in the Spring. Mr Sarkozy has been accused of reviving the French far-right National Front by putting a debate over national identity, and a possible ban on the Muslim burqa, t the centre of his regional election campaign.

7) Europe’s culture wars over Islam and Muslim immigrants will also be in the frontline of Dutch regional elections in March. Geert Wilders will be hoping that his anti-Islam Freedom Party can turn its opinion poll lead into political gains ahead of national elections in 2011.

8) Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian Prime Minister, battered by and unrepentant over a series of sex scandals will also faces spring municipal elections. But his biggest test in 2010 will be the economy, amid signs that Italian growth is weak, despite typically bombastic claims of its vitality from Mr Berlusconi.

9) Poland’s presidential elections in the autumn will be viewed as a mark of how much the country has escaped a past, dominated by Communist totalitarianism and World War Two, to become a typical European country in the centrist political mainstream. Donald Tusk, the centre-right reformist Prime Minister, will take on Lech Kaczynski, the incumbent President, whose Catholic nationalism is seens as a legacy of Poland’s traditional grievance based politics.

10) Presidential elections in the Ukraine in January will be an early test of Europe-Russia relations. EU countries are already worried that gas supplies could be hit by a repeat of 2009’s Moscow-Kiev dispute as Russia competes with Europe to assert its influence over Ukraine.

11) Nato’s role in Afghanistan will be increasingly questioned if European troop casualties mount during the American-led “surge” in early 2010 without any progress on handing power over to Afghan forces. Public doubts over the counter-insurgency conflict will feed into debate, scheduled between Nato’s heads of state and government at a summit later in the year, over the future of an Alliance originally founded to protect European countries against the Soviet Union.