Mr. Malpass is president of Encima Global LLC. He served as deputy assistant Treasury secretary in the Reagan administration and deputy assistant secretary of state in the George H.W. Bush administration.
So the economy isn’t ready to withstand a quarter-point rate hike even after seven years of stimulus?
Like Lucy in the classic “Peanuts” comic strip, the Federal Reserve Thursday invited a running kick of the football—the first interest-rate hike in nine years—only to pull back at the last minute. The Fed cited recent “global economic and financial developments,” i.e., China’s stock-market woes, which “may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.”
Financial circles in New York and Washington are celebrating, but the latest delay in tapering off the Fed’s near-zero interest rate policy risks plopping the economy, like the hapless Charlie Brown, flat on its derrière. While Wall Street applauds, uncertainty about future rate increases will likely keep business investment weak.
The economy is stuck in a zero-rate trap in which businesses don’t want to invest when they don’t know the impact of a rate hike, while the Fed thinks a rate hike would shake financial markets and hurt investment. Underinvestment leaves high cash balances at big corporations, but it is idle liquidity and doesn’t add to productivity.