https://www.city-journal.org/article/no-ramadan-ceasefire
As the March 10 start of Ramadan nears, international pressure has significantly increased on Israel to reach a ceasefire agreement with Hamas in exchange for the release of Israeli hostages. While the idea of advocating for a ceasefire with a genocidal terrorist organization is fundamentally misguided, the notion that Israel should halt its military efforts to respect Ramadan is even more perverse.
Historically, Palestinian terror groups have used Ramadan as a bargaining chip to pressure Israel into making concessions in exchange for calm—a ploy that the Biden administration has bought wholeheartedly. Those who support Israel’s making such concessions argue that failing to appease Palestinians during Ramadan might incite further terror.
The data, however, don’t align with that contention. As Hill Frisch from the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security wrote in 2023, “Almost none of the most tumultuous periods of Palestinian violence occurred during the month of Ramadan.” Frisch even argued that “A reading of the data strongly suggests that the dangers [of disproportionate violence during Ramadan] are grossly exaggerated, if not entirely false.” In other words, according to Frisch’s research, American and Israeli officials’ concerns about Palestinian terror during Ramadan are at least overstated.
While Frisch’s research suggests that Palestinians are not more likely to commit terror acts during Ramadan, that doesn’t mean that such attacks never happen. Historically, such Ramadan-tied incidents typically follow Palestinian leaders’ prolonged incitement efforts, which culminate in their exploiting the holiday for a preexisting political objective. This time, that objective would be Hamas’s survival.