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Five Reasons Republicans Can Hold the House . By Adele Malpass –

Posted By on October 22nd, 2018

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/10/22/five_reasons_republicans_can_hold_the_house.html

Despite conventional wisdom, there is a path for Republicans to hold their majority in the House. Democrats need a net pickup of 23 seats to gain control of the chamber and most election watchers are predicting that will happen. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight is giving Democrats an 84.3 percent chance of taking over. The Cook Political Report thinks the Democrats have a 70-75 percent chance of becoming the majority. Adding to the pack is Nathan Gonzales’s Inside Elections, which is predicting a Democratic gain of 25-35 seats in the House, with even more possible.

What could go wrong?

For starters, these are the same prognosticators who were shocked that Hillary Clinton didn’t win the presidency in 2016. As White House aide Kellyanne Conway said, “Let’s not forget the same geniuses that predicted a huge romp by that woman who lost in 2016 are the same people predicting a huge win by the Democrats this time.” Perhaps a tad chastened, some election watchers are giving themselves a bit more wiggle room this time. Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” reported last week that although Democrats were favored to win the House, they’ve solidified the pickup of only 19 seats so far — leaving them four short of the number needed to claim the majority.

Here are five reasons the GOP could upset expectations:

— The president’s job approval rating acts as a coattail effect and is a strong predictor for the outcome of midterm elections, especially in the House. The reigning theory goes that the higher Trump’s approval rating, the better Republican congressional candidates will do. When the president approval was hovering around 40 percent, the conventional wisdom about a Democratic “blue wave” started to congeal. Then a funny thing happened: His numbers began ticking up. Not a lot, but maybe enough to make a difference.

According to the RealClearPolitics poll average, the president’s approval rating today is just a shade above 44 percent. That doesn’t necessarily bode well for Republicans when one looks at how the president’s party has done in previous midterms, but Trump may be sui generis. His personal approval rating on Election Day 2016 was only 32 percent – compared to a 53 percent disapproval rating. In other words, the gap between his approval to disapproval has narrowed. This is not exactly an apples to apples comparison, but in some tracking polls, such as Rasmussen and YouGov, his approval rating has crossed the crucial 45 percent mark where the coattail effect starts to have a significant down-ballot impact.

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Trans Activists’ Campaign Against ‘TERFs’ has Become an Attack on Science written by Julian Vigo

Posted By on October 22nd, 2018

https://quillette.com/2018/10/18/trans-activists
In a recent article for Forbes, “The Vaccination Debacle,” I discussed the frightening rise in the number of European measles cases. The reason for the spike is simple: Fed a daily online diet of nonsense and ideologically motivated activism, many people have come to reject mainstream medical science—including the science behind vaccinations. You’d think that “get vaccinated” would be a relatively straightforward message. But in the days following the article’s publication, I received a good dozen emails from doctors thanking me for writing the piece, and describing how difficult it has become to convince some patients that their local paediatrician isn’t part of an international conspiracy.

But at least the effort to push back against anti-vaccination conspiracy theories is seen as a respectable form of discourse. In other spheres, it’s not so easy to speak common sense.

Consider, for instance, last year’s saga involving Rebecca Tuvel—who was hounded by trans activists and scholars after applying a theoretical application of transgender ideology to the idea of “trans-racialism.” Scandalously, the article in question was edited post facto so as to remove the name “Bruce Jenner”—in response to the claim that these two words served to “dead-name” the person now known as Caitlyn Jenner (despite the fact that Caitlyn Jenner herself repeatedly refers to “Bruce” in interviews). To cite the historically verifiable fact that someone named Bruce Jenner once existed is now seen as a sort of religious heresy. And like all heresies, it must be ritualistically expunged—not because it is factually wrong, but because it is seen as morally wrong.

In August, Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island was criticized for removing a news release about a peer-reviewed study published in PLoS One by one of its academics—Lisa Littman, a physician and researcher at Brown’s School of Public Health. Littman’s article, titled “Rapid-onset gender dysphoria in adolescents and young adults: A study of parental reports,“ discusses the phenomenon by which social media and peer pressure seem to have fuelled the recently observed trend by which young teenagers (typically girls) suddenly declare themselves transgender. The paper infuriated transgender activists, who claim that the entire notion of rapid-onset gender dysphoria (ROGD) is a transphobic invention. Both Brown and PLoS One also were attacked as Brown’s enablers.

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The Migrant Caravan Invasion What our president must do to seal the border. Joseph Klein

Posted By on October 22nd, 2018

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/271700/migrant-caravan-invasion-joseph-klein

A migrant caravan from Central America is currently heading en masse to the United States. Its members, several thousand strong, are intent on pouring into the U.S. in what amounts to an invasion force. President Trump has correctly branded the caravan an “onslaught” and an “assault on our country.” The president has promised to use military troops if necessary to close the southern border with Mexico. He also threatened to cut off all foreign aid to those Central American countries that are not doing enough to stop the migration caravan in its tracks.

Members of the caravan have already demonstrated their violent streak during an early stage of their trek, as they approached Mexico. They “forced their way through Guatemala’s northwestern border and flooded onto a bridge leading to Mexico,” AFP reported. These migrants, mainly from Honduras, engaged in violent clashes with Mexican riot police as they tried to surge through police lines and cross the bridge into Mexico. Four Mexican police officers were reportedly injured. “Violent entry into the country not only threatens our sovereignty, but also puts the migrants themselves at risk,” Mexico’s President Pena Nieto said. “Mexico does not permit and will not permit entry into its territory in an irregular fashion, much less in a violent fashion.”

Mexican government officials have said that Mexico would be willing to consider asylum requests from members of the caravan on an individual basis, with the assistance of the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner on Refugees (“UNHCR”). Mexico is proposing that UNCHR establish shelters along Mexico’s southern border with Central American countries. Individuals deemed by the UN agency to be eligible for asylum protection, presumably after performing its standard vetting, would be eligible for placement in a host country willing to accept them, which could be Mexico or the United States. Those deemed not to have a legitimate claim would be sent back to their home countries. If someone manages to slip through this system and travels through Mexico before crossing the Mexico-U.S. border into the United States, Mexico has indicated that it would be willing to accept the return of that individual if the U.S. so wishes. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the United States welcomed and would cooperate with Mexico’s initiative to have Central American migrants processed for possible asylum in Mexico first with UN assistance. The initiative conforms with international law on the handling of claims for refugee status and is an orderly and humane solution to the migration crisis that the caravan has precipitated.

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An American Journalist Just Died After a Racist Beating, and the Washington Post Didn’t Even Report It Daniel Greenfield

Posted By on October 22nd, 2018

https://www.frontpagemag.com/point/271697/american-journalist-just-died-after-racist-beating-daniel-greenfield

Search for Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi-Turkish Islamist activist who hated Jews and backed Hamas, and the results are legion.

Search for Jerry Wolkowitz, an American Jewish journalist, at the Washington Post and you get zero results.

While the Washington Post weeps and wails over Khashoggi, an anti-Semitic foreign Islamist, it has no interest in the murder of a Jewish journalist in the United States.

Jerry Wolkowitz, a longtime EMT, photojournalist and son of Jewish Holocaust survivors who was the victim of a vicious racially-motivated attack, has died at age 56 after nearly six months on life support.

On May 1, 2018, 25-year-old Jamil Hubbard allegedly approached Wolkowitz from behind and punched him in the head and face. He then allegedly pulled Wolkowitz’s body into the parking lot of his Freehold, New Jersey apartment building and ran him over with his car, leaving him for dead.

Wolkowitz was a freelance journalist and photographer for numerous publications including the Asbury Park Press. He was also an EMT and ambulance driver and volunteer with the Freehold First Aid and Rescue Squad.

There are more details and they’re horrifying.

Jerry Wolkowitz, a longtime EMT and journalist, has died nearly six months after a brutal, allegedly racially motivated beating left him on life support. He was 56.

Wolkowitz, described as an “innocent soul” by younger medics he took under his wing, was walking near his Harding Road apartment on the morning of May 1 when authorities believe 26-year-old Jamil S. Hubbard of Sayreville beat him and dragged him into a parking lot

Wolkowitz was hospitalized for weeks before being taken to a long-term care facility, where he stayed until his kidneys failed, friends said. Family members took turns to visit him each week until he died.

In the months that followed the assault, Wolkowitz’s loved ones remained by his side through infections and organ failures.

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Swedish Hypocrisy on Human Rights Turning a blind eye to the Mullahs’ persecution of Kurds. Joseph Puder

Posted By on October 22nd, 2018

Sweden’s Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom has been quick to blame the U.S. and Israel for alleged misdeeds toward the Palestinians. The Turkish-based Anadolu Agency reported on May 16, 2018 that Wallstrom blamed the U.S. for encouraging the Palestinian riots in Gaza. She is quoted as telling Swedish TT News Agency that: “The U.S. has a big responsibility in the incidents where at least 50-60 Palestinians were killed and many others injured.” This was said in the context of the Hamas organized provocation to march thousands of Gazan across the Israeli border. It also happened to occur during the opening of the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem, which followed the Trump administration recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Wallstrom did not condemn Hamas’ effort to attack Israel and Jewish civilians.

The same Swedish foreign minister, Margot Wallstrom (pictured above), eager to condemn the U.S. and Israel, has been silent about the execution of Kurdish political prisoners by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Sweden has turned a blind eye on Iran’s gross violations of human rights, and its cruel executions of women and teenagers. The Iranian regime has executed Kurdish dissidents with impunity. Sweden was silent about it, as were other leaders of the EU. They were too busy appeasing the Ayatollahs in an effort to preserve the unreliable Iran nuclear deal or JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), and winning business contracts.

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A New Low in the Persecution of Tommy Robinson “Fake news” doesn’t even begin to describe it. Bruce Bawer

Posted By on October 22nd, 2018

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/271698/new-low-persecution-tommy-robinson-bruce-bawer

On Friday, the British judiciary lifted reporting restrictions on the three trials of a total of twenty “Asian” men at Leeds County Court, allowing the media to inform the public that the men were sentenced to a total of 221 years in prison for the rapes of fifteen young girls in the West Yorkshire town of Huddersfield. It was the second of these trials that Tommy Robinson was reporting about online on May 25 when he was arrested outside the Leeds courthouse, rushed through a brief trial conducted by Judge Geoffrey Marson, sentenced to thirteen months behind bars, and immediately confined in Hull Prison.

On June 13, he was transferred to Onley Prison, which has a higher Muslim population than the institution in Leeds and was thus more dangerous; exactly who ordered this transfer, which seems utterly unjustified except as a malicious attempt to expose Robinson to harm, remains unknown. Through the summer, Tommy’s supporters held rallies around Britain, accusing their nation’s establishment of having illegitimately imprisoned Tommy in order to shut down a major critic of the official appeasement of Islam; meanwhile, the mainstream media and political and cultural elite insisted in unison that Tommy’s trial had been completely on the up-and-up and that he’d gotten precisely what he deserved.

That line of argument, however, was completely discredited on August 1, when Lord Burnett, the Lord Chief Justice of England and Wales, and two other judges issued a ruling that could scarcely have been more severe in its knockdown of Marson’s treatment of Tommy. Writing that the whole thing had been a “muddle,” from the nature of the charges to the justification for the verdict, the judges reversed Tommy’s conviction, freed him on bail, and ordered a new hearing. That hearing is scheduled for tomorrow, October 23.

Did Lord Burnett’s decision chasten Tommy’s critics? Not a chance. On Friday, once the reporting restrictions were lifted on those grooming trials, the major media in Britain dutifully provided accounts of the verdicts. There was certainly a lot to report: three trials, several months, fifteen victims, twenty defendants, a mountain of stomach-turning testimony. But the focus of the British media wasn’t on any of this – it was on Tommy. Since he’d played a leading role in drawing attention to the existence of Muslim rape gangs in Britain – a fact that local governments, police departments, social-services agencies, and the mainstream media had kept shamefully, pusillanimously silent about for decades – they might have taken the occasion to apologize for having hounded

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Kyrsten Sinema Reminds Us That Democrats Hate Housewives By Julie Kelly

Posted By on October 22nd, 2018

https://amgreatness.com/2018/10/22/kyrsten-

Just as Democrats try to woo suburban moms ahead of next month’s election, along comes Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) to remind us how much the Left hates us.

Sinema is running against her Republican House colleague, Rep. Martha McSally, for the open seat vacated by retiring Arizona Senator Jeff Flake. The 42-year-old unmarried bisexual atheist lawyer with a Ph.D. in Justice Studies has some interesting views on life, as you might imagine.

She once wrote that capitalism poses a danger to Americans; she was an anti-war activist in the early 2000s—one of her protest groups distributed flyers portraying U.S. soldiers as skeletons with automatic rifles; she summoned witches to one anti-war stunt; and she mocks her own (adopted) home state as a “meth lab of democracy” whose residents are “crazy.”

Not exactly a winning campaign message when you’re running in Arizona.

But it’s her 2006 profane comments ridiculing stay-at-home moms that now pose a major problem for her party, and could very well cost her the election. Then-state representative Sinema questioned the feminist cred of women who don’t work outside the home and instead chose to care for their families. “These women who act like staying at home, leeching off their husbands or boyfriends, and just cashing the checks is some sort of feminism because they’re choosing to live that life,” Sinema said during an interview with a Scottsdale magazine. “That’s bullshit. I mean, what the f— are we really talking about here?”

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Wolves in Wolves’ Clothing By Victor Davis Hanson

Posted By on October 22nd, 2018

https://amgreatness.com/2018/10/21/wolves

If the New Democratic Party was smart, it would do what the old Democratic Party did long ago: always sound centrist if not conservative in the last weeks of a campaign, get elected, then revert to form and pursue a left-wing agenda for a year or two—and then repeat the chameleon cycle every two to four years.

But although many Democrats in Trump states still dance the old bipartisan two-step, lots of blinkered progressive wolves don’t even bother to put on the sheep’s clothing.

Evidently, the new progressive and radical Democratic Party is far more honest—or perhaps far more hubristic—than in the past. So what now looks and sounds like a wolf is a wolf. Democrats have learned nothing and forgotten nothing from 2016. Or rather, they still believe it is 2008 all over again, with a host of wannabe Obamas on the 2020 horizon, all appealing to identity politics, Maenad feminism, and neo-socialism. The hipster theory is that 30 percent of the present electorate will always vote en masse for unapologetic progressives, and that bloc number, due to changing demography and persuasive street theatrics, soon will grow to 50 percent of all voters.

More to the point, the strategy of hating Trump 24/7 and fueling the 90 percent negative media coverage of the president had seemed to be a winning hand—given that Trump has usually below 45 percent approval in most polls, and pundits promised a huge blue wave neutering what certainly would be Trump’s last two years in the White House.

Yet the result of a progressive wolf baying proudly like a left-wing wolf is that as we head to the 2018 midterm, progressives may soon blow what should be, by history’s analytics, a big win for the out party in any president’s first term.

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ELECTIONS ARE COMING: CONNECTICUT DISTRICT 4- HARRY ARORA (R) VS. JIM HIMES

Posted By on October 22nd, 2018

An outsider for Connecticut? By Seth Segal

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/10/an_outsider_for_connecticut.html

The political class has endured a massive setback. The election of President Trump sent shock waves throughout liberal circles. A new crop of outsiders have emerged — among them is a businessman named Harry Arora.

Arora is challenging Jim Himes for his Connecticut congressional seat. Arora has an impressive website. On it he demonstrates a solid grasp of the most important issues.

On economic growth, Arora promises to “Promote Pro Growth policies to reverse Connecticut’s economic decline.” In addition, Arora seeks to curtail excessive red tape. The Trump economy is booming. Arora embraces the President’s economic vision.

Like our President, Arora is in favor of fair trade. He supports the America First approach to trade deals.

As a first-generation American (he was born in India), Arora knows at firsthand the importance of merit-based immigration. In Arora’s word’s “I grew up with little and am blessed to have attained the American dream”. He supports an immigration system where American citizens take priority.

Arora is no career politician. He has “worked as an investment manager and analyst for 20 years, researching and investing in commodities and currency markets.” He is a businessman, not a man of the political class. He can bring economic success back.

Arora’s values are American values. He is a man of faith. He also believes in freedom, opportunity and compassion.

Arora is not beholden to special interests. Connecticut has the opportunity to elect an outsider.

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North Korea’s Toxic Space Program by Debalina Ghoshal

Posted By on October 22nd, 2018

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13157/north-korea-space-program

“Even though the US and its allies try to block our space development, our aerospace scientists will conquer space.” — Hyon Kwang-il, director of the scientific research department of North Korea’s National Aerospace Development Administration.

Such statements made all the more chilling North Korea’s 2016 launch of the Unha-3 rocket, with the capability of carrying satellites into space, its July 4 and July 28, 2017 test-launches of the Hwasong-14 ICBM and its November 28, 2017 test-launch of the Hwasong-15 ICBM, which reportedly has a maximum range that would allow it to hit anywhere in the United States.

If North Korea were able to develop the capability to damage or destroy US satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), it would be a major achievement for the country and pose a debilitating threat to space security.

Although North Korea, like other countries, claims that its space program is for civilian, rather than military, purposes, there is good reason to suspect that this is not quite what is going on, and that its government will simply use these capabilities to continue developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of carrying nuclear warheads, to continue threatening global security. North Korea, like other countries, is probably planning to use its space program to militarize and weaponize the realm of space itself.

It is in this context that North Korea’s Kwangmyongsong-5 satellite, whose imminent launch was first reported in December 2017, needs to be viewed. The report did not come as a surprise, particularly as two months earlier, North Korea’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Kim In-Ryong, told the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space about his country’s five-year plan, from 2016 through 2020, to develop “practical satellites that can contribute to the economic development and improvement of the people’s living.” As Fox News reported, however, “…many U.N. members, including the U.S., fear that North Korea’s space program is actually a cover for its weapons program.”