https://www.jns.org/hamas-casualty-numbers-deliberately-fabricated-new-analysis-reveals/
The casualty figures supplied by the Gaza Health Ministry are based on false and misleading data, according to a new report.
Despite the numbers being deeply unreliable, they have been widely accepted to support genocide claims against Israel, “and thereby are a major strategic victory of Hamas’s wartime information effort,” notes the report, titled, “Hamas Casualty Reports are a Tangle of Technical Problems.”
The report was co-authored by Lewi Stone, a professor of mathematical epidemiology in the mathematical sciences department at RMIT University in Melbourne, Australia, and Gregory Rose, an honorary professor of law at the Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security (ANCORS) at the University of Wollongong, Australia.
Stone and Rose obtained access to a dataset published in January 2025 by a London-based researcher, who had unique access to time-stamped data from the Hamas-run Health Ministry. The dataset “allowed us to undertake a more in-depth analysis of statistics at different dates of the war across regions in Gaza.”
They used data provided by the ministry itself to show that the Israel Defense Forces took measures to avoid harming women and children in Gaza.
Given that 75% of Gaza’s population comprises women and children, if attacks were random, 75% of the victims should also be women and children, Stone told JNS. But the data shows that 51% of the victims were women and children over the course of 17 months of the war. This disparity suggests women and children fatalities were far less than Hamas has been claiming, and the impact on civilians was likely smaller.
“Moreover, women and children casualties trended to become an increasingly lower monthly proportion of casualties as the war progressed across time, again something Hamas never publicized,” Stone noted.