https://www.theeditors.com/p/five-early-lessons-from-israels-strikes-against-iran?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2110503&post_i
Last night’s attack by Israel on Iran is just the beginning of what the Israeli ambassador in Washington, Yechiel Leiter, said is a “long haul” that “will be measured in days, not in hours.”
Yet it is not too soon to draw some preliminary conclusions.
First, the show of strength positions Israel as the regional superpower. Thomas Friedman wrote in the New York Times June 10, 2025 of Israel in a situation where “the Jewish state is a pariah state — a source of shame, not of pride.” This operation puts Israel in the opposite position. The same way that the Hezbollah pager operation won Israel respect, the technical military feat of carrying out a long-range strike with surprise against high-value targets with minimal Israeli casualties will also translate into admiration.
This was visible even in President Trump’s comments, where he associated U.S technology with Israel’s breathtaking achievements: “the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come – And they know how to use it.”
As former Pentagon analyst Harold Rhode put it, “Now, in Muslim world, they are in total shock and awe at the power and will/determination of the Jewish State. What Israel is accomplishing in this war totally negates the Muslim narrative that the Jewish people (and the Christians) are at best ‘2nd class citizens’ and abandoned by G-d.”
Rhode went on, “In the Middle East and the Muslim world in general, two things are respected: the ability and the will to win. And that is exactly what Israel is demonstrating.”
Israeli author and analyst Hen Mazzig reports that Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Qatar, Jordan, Turkey, and the UAE all “participated in intercepting Iranian missiles and drones attack against Israel.” Some of that reflects Sunni Muslims siding against Shiite Muslim Iran, but some of it reflects realpolitik respect for Israeli military, economic, and scientific power, which its neighbors want to benefit from. Medium- to long-term, as David Wurmser has explained in some of his pieces for us here, a diminished Iran may allow the rise of Turkey and Qatar as a kind of Sunni Muslim Brotherhood threat, so a defeated Iran would not mean a total regional “all clear” for Israel or American interests, but that is for another day.
Second, the Iranian people, with Israeli help, will have to decide if this is a moment for regime change. Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government have oscillated between calling for a “free Iran” and emphasizing the need to keep the current regime from obtaining nuclear weapons. Netanyahu has been doing some of both, and it may ultimately be up to Iran and Iranians which direction this goes. Last night, Netanyahu spoke to the Iranian people, saying, “The day of your liberation is near….we roll back a murderous tyranny.” By far the best outcome is a regime change in Iran rather than a setback to the nuclear program and ballistic missile program that stops short of a regime change. Israelis understand that from the example of Gaza, where, between 2007 and 2023, Israel repeatedly went in and “mowed the lawn” with strikes against Hamas. Each time, Hamas rebuilt until, with Iranian backing, it ultimately launched the October 7, 2023, attack.