https://us7.campaign-archive.com/?e=a9fdc67db9&u=9d011a88d8fe324cae8c084c5&id=7d68230f86
For several years now, advocates of “decarbonizing” our energy system, along with promoters of wind and solar energy, have claimed that the cost of electricity from the wind and sun was dropping rapidly and either already was, or soon would be, less than the cost of generating the same electricity from fossil fuels. These claims are generally based on a metric called the “Levelized Cost of Energy,” which is designed to seem sophisticated to the uninitiated, but in the real world is completely misleading because it omits the largest costs of a system where most generation comes from intermittent sources. The large omitted costs are those for storage (batteries) and transmission. But as we now careen recklessly down the road to zero emissions, how much will these omitted costs really amount to?
A guy named Ken Gregory has recently (December 20, 2021, updated January 10, 2022) come out with a Report at a Canadian website called Friends of Science with the title “The Cost of Net Zero Electrification of the U.S.A.” A somewhat abbreviated version of Gregory’s Report has also appeared at Watts Up With That here. Gregory provides a tentative number for the additional storage costs that could be necessary for full electrification of the United States system, with all current fossil fuel generation replaced by wind and solar. That number is $433 trillion. Since the current U.S. annual GDP is about $21 trillion, you will recognize that the $433 trillion represents more than 20 times full U.S. annual GDP. In the post I will give some reasons why Gregory may even be underestimating what the cost would ultimately prove to be.
First, some background. A huge and, I would submit, obvious engineering issue that permeates the question of powering an electrical grid with only intermittent sources is how to assure that there is always sufficient electricity available to meet demand at every minute throughout the year. Somebody needs to carefully study actual generation from wind and sun hour by hour (maybe even minute by minute) throughout a year, and then calculate exactly how much storage it’s going to take to get through all the sun and wind droughts that occur during what could be long periods of calm, overcast, hot, cold and nights. This kind of work does not involve sophisticated mathematics, but it does involve detailed effort to create an appropriate spreadsheet and find and carefully input reams of publicly available data. To their incredible shame, none of the genius planet saviors who are imposing decarbonization on us ever undertake this task, and for that matter they have never even admitted it is an issue, as far as I have been able to determine. Take a look, for example, at New York’s Climate Action Scoping Plan, or California’s AB32 Climate Change Scoping Plan, or for that matter any of the regulations and Executive Orders coming out of the federal government, and you just never find any mention of this subject.