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FOREIGN POLICY

The Trump Revolution in the Middle East Has Just Begun by Guy Millière

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21425/trump-middle-east-revolution

Most Democrats in the US seem to have forgotten the absolute horror of the attack of October 7, 2023. They seem not to understand why most Israelis think that there is no way to coexist with a Gaza Strip in the hands of terrorists thirsty for Jewish blood. These Democrats appear not to see that relocating Gaza Arabs elsewhere has nothing to do with “ethnic cleansing.” Trump did not propose to eliminate the Arabs, but to relocate them to safer places. These Democrats also appear to ignore that ethnic cleansing is precisely what is at the heart of the intentions of the members of Hamas, an organization with explicitly genocidal goals.

The leaders of the main European countries talk about the “two-state solution” while knowing perfectly well that the only outcome Hamas wants is a one-state solution: the destruction of Israel, not a state alongside Israel… Europe’s leaders ignore countless polls showing that the residents of the Gaza Strip, as well as those, in the territories mismanaged by the Palestinian Authority, celebrate the October 7 massacre and want above all else Israel’s destruction. That, in fact, seems to be the actual goal of everyone who disagrees with Trump.

A Palestinian state would indeed be — as the Palestinians have openly stated — a launching pad from which to keep trying to destroy Israel.

[I]n reality, Arab leaders do not like the Palestinians any more than the Israelis do, but it is considered impolite to say so. The positions of at least several leaders of the Arab world might become flexible.

Trump, however, possibly in a hurry to solve the Iran-Hamas-Israel War, should not under any circumstances “go wobbly”.

Qatar is reportedly trying to come up with a potentially duplicitous “peace plan” to allow its treasured client and Muslim Brotherhood associate, Hamas, to remain in power in Gaza so it can attack Israel again.

No one bothers to explain how the Gazans can continue to live in an area studded with unexploded ordnance, where 70% of the buildings are destroyed, and which Trump has rightly defined as a “demolition site,” while leaving nearly two million people to reside there and hundreds of armed terrorists in tunnels.

No one admits that massive population displacements have successfully taken place in the past. Millions of Germans were moved from territories conquered by Germany after 1945, with no protests voiced…. Jews who lived in the Gaza Strip were expelled in 2005 by decision of the Israeli government to give the Palestinians there a chance to create a peaceful “Singapore on the Mediterranean.”

What American Democrats and European leaders should be committed to is preventing Hamas, a terrorist organization, from remaining in power. Netanyahu explains: “[Y]ou can’t talk about peace, neither with Hamas or in the Middle East, if this, you know, toxic murderous organization is left standing, any more that you could make peace in Europe after World War II, if the Nazi regime was left standing and the Nazi army was left standing.”

American Democrats and European leaders still grant legitimacy to the Palestinian Authority (PA) and say that they would like to entrust it with the management of Gaza after the war. They apparently do not want to see that the PA is a corrupt entity that rewards terrorism and supports the atrocities perpetrated by Hamas. They appear to want Gaza to remain a terrorist entity able to attack Israel again and again. Interesting.

“The non-terrorists in Gaza move to a place where they can live in peace and dignity. The US and others then rebuild Gaza and recover their costs through the commercialization of 25 miles of what will become pristine beachfront, now open to the world… [P]eace prevails with no American boots on the ground nor expense to the American taxpayer. Hard to quarrel with this if you believe in peace, prosperity and human dignity.” — David M. Friedman, former US Ambassador to Israel, X, February 6, 2025.

Trump appears determined to profoundly change the Middle East. It is to be hoped at that he will not allow himself to be discouraged, misled or have his impressive visions diminished.

If Trump successfully manages to overcome the pressures and obstacles placed in front of him, what he is setting in motion today can magnificently transform the Middle East.

February 4, 2025, the White House, Washington, DC. President Donald J. Trump is at a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump says that Hamas must be eliminated, and that “the US will take over the Gaza Strip”, dismantle “all of the dangerous unexploded bombs”, “get rid of the destroyed buildings” and “create an economic development”. He adds that Gaza’s Arabs should go to other countries and “be able to live in comfort and peace”.

Trump’s Ukrainian Tightrope Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022 because he saw weakness in the West, but now both he and the world want an end to the war—Trump may be the only one willing to cut an imperfect but necessary deal. By Victor Davis Hanson

https://amgreatness.com/2025/02/24/trumps-ukrainian-tightrope/

To find an impossible peace between Ukraine and Russia we must understand the recent history of the war and the European and American roles in it. So, Americans should revisit some fundamental realities and questions from which to remember before going forward:

Why Did Putin Invade Ukraine in 2022?

Putin did start the war. Trump’s trolling aside, he knows that because he correctly pointed out that Putin invaded his neighbors in three of the last four administrations—but not his own, given Trump’s deterrence.

The most obvious answer why Putin did is that he thought he easily could. But why in 2022—as he had in 2008 and 2014?

Putin has nonending opportunistic desires to recombobulate what he thinks properly is and will always be Russian—whether territories to be formally absorbed or as coerced satellite states. But he moves on them only whenever he thinks the benefits outweigh the costs.

And by February 2022, he certainly felt they did.

The U.S. and NATO had lost all appearances of deterrence vis-à-vis Russia. Joe Biden had been part of the Obama-Biden administration that had naively appeased Putin for some eight years. Remember their 2009 reset by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that was based on numerous flawed and disastrous assumptions:

The prior Bush sanctions against Putin for invading Georgia and grabbing parts of South Ossetia were overly harsh, reflective of his supposed cowboyism evident in Iraq.
The Obama mystique, coupled with criticism of the prior Bush administration, would win over Putin. Remember Obama’s 2012 hot mic appeasement in Seoul, when Obama promised Putin “flexibility” (i.e., cancellation of Eastern European defense, if Putin gave Obama “space” for his “last election” (i.e., please don’t invade and embarrass Obama until after he was reelected in 2012).
The U.S. thought it could act unilaterally in Libya and Syria, talk of expanding NATO in Europe, and expect a humiliated Russia to keep silent and distant.
Once rebuffed by Putin, who took Obama’s measure, an angry and rejected U.S. would cajole, beg, and finally try to force European Union democratic values onto the Putin regime—by sanctions, by aiding Russian dissident groups, and by claiming Putin was America’s archenemy.

The flawed working theory was that an either compliant or defiant Putin could acquiesce and begin liberalizing Russia, in emulation of EU and US democracy.

Rubio Exempts Taiwan and Philippines Security Programs from Aid Freeze By Jimmy Quinn

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/rubio-exempts-taiwan-and-philippines-security-programs-from-aid-freeze/

Secretary of State Marco Rubio exempted from his department’s ongoing aid freeze over $1 billion in foreign security assistance for Taiwan and the Philippines.

“The Secretary approved exemptions for defense aide to the Philippines and Taiwan, which is a strong message for China deterrence in the region,” a senior State Department official told National Review. The exemption covers $870 million for Taiwan and $336 for the Philippines, the official said.

Reuters first reported on the exemptions, which the outlet said were part of a broader tranche of $5 billion worth of State Department programs that received exemptions.

China’s military intimidation targeting these U.S. partners — both major recipients of U.S. security assistance programs — has continued, even as Beijing signals that it wants to enter into trade talks with the Trump administration.

Last week, Manila lodged a diplomatic complaint with Beijing after a Chinese helicopter engaged in “unprofessional” maneuvers near a Philippines jet over the Scarborough Shoal. Meanwhile, Chinese military aircraft and vessels continue to swarm near Taiwan every day, per daily updates published by Taipei’s ministry of defense.

Why Trump Must Insist on Removing Hamas From Power by Khaled Abu Toameh

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21406/remove-hamas-from-power

One of the group’s senior officials, Osama Hamdan… also threatened that Hamas would not allow any non-Palestinian party to enter the Gaza Strip.

Iran’s ruling mullahs have already lost their strategic ally with the collapse of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad. Losing the Gaza Strip would therefore be another severe blow to the Iranian regime, whose declared goal is to annihilate the “Zionist entity.”

Similarly, Hamas’s longtime patrons and funders in Qatar will do their utmost to ensure that the terrorist group remains in power.

Hamdan’s statements are a clear indication that Hamas intends to maintain its control of the Gaza Strip at any cost. They are also a sign that Hamas is determined to continue its terror attacks against Israel.

Any deal that allows Hamas to remain in power would be disastrous for Israel, the Palestinians, and Arab states threatened by the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance.”

It would also undermine the Trump administration’s credibility in the eyes of many in the Middle East. The Trump administration will appear as if it is only good at making empty threats.

There should be no reconstruction of the Gaza Strip as long as Iran’s proxies remain in power. The idea of allowing the Palestinian Authority to return to the Gaza Strip as a civilian body that pays salaries and funds projects should be rejected by the Trump administration.

Even if the PA is permitted to deploy its own security forces in the Gaza Strip, it does not mean that they would be able to disarm Hamas and other terrorist groups. The PA did not do so when it was in control of the Gaza Strip between 1994 and 2007, and the assumption that it would do so now is catastrophically wrong.

The Iran-backed Palestinian terrorist group Hamas has reportedly expressed readiness to cede control of the Gaza Strip and hand it over to the Palestinian Authority (PA), headed by Mahmoud Abbas.

This assurance, however, does not mean that Hamas is willing to lay down its weapons or dismantle its military wing, Izz a-Din al-Qassam Brigades.

Hamas wants the PA to return to the Gaza Strip only to pay salaries and fund various projects, including the reconstruction of the devastation. That arrangement would still exempt Hamas of its duties and responsibilities towards the two million residents of the Gaza Strip and allow the terror group to rearm, regroup and rebuild its military capabilities.

Vance Calls Out the European Commissars And the leftist authoritarians are furious. by Robert Spencer

https://www.frontpagemag.com/__trashed-3/

JD Vance was about to say “European Commissioners,” but he stopped himself, and instead said “European Commissars.” This was no slip of the tongue. Vance clearly had in mind the commissars of the old Soviet Union, and as he was addressing, at the Munich Security Conference, a roomful of their intellectual children and heirs, his choice of words was entirely apt. Vance was there to call out these cosseted elites, who aren’t used to being called out, and the predictable rage has ensued. But the vice president’s message was prophetic. If European leaders were interested in maintaining their countries as free societies, they would heed him.

“Unfortunately, when I look at Europe today,” Vance said, “it’s sometimes not so clear what happened to some of the Cold War’s winners. I look to Brussels, where EU commissars warn citizens that they intend to shut down social media during times of civil unrest the moment they spot what they’ve judged to be, quote, ‘hateful content.’ I look to my own country, where police have carried out raids against citizens suspected of posting anti-feminist comments online as part of, quote, ‘combating misogyny on the internet, a day of action.’”

Vance continued by referring to the flashpoint for the freedom of speech today, the point at which it is most heatedly disputed: the burning of the Qur’an. “I look to Sweden,” he said, “where two weeks ago the government convicted a Christian activist for participating in Koran burnings that resulted in his friend’s murder. As the judge in his case chillingly noted, Sweden’s laws to supposedly protect free expression do not, in fact, grant, and I’m quoting, ‘a free pass to do or say anything without risking offending the group that holds that belief.’”

JD Vance has signed the death warrant of the status quo His intellectual waterboarding of Europe’s elites was a joy to watch. Brendan O’Neill

https://www.spiked-online.com/2025/02/15/jd-vance-has-signed-the-death-warrant-of-the-status-quo/

Well, that was a delicious spectacle. America’s self-made VP gloriously roasting the wizened technocrats of Europe. A Yank from dirt-poor origins sticking it to Europe’s turbo-smug ruling class. How they squirmed as the boy from Ohio who somehow made it to the top of US politics chastised them for their indecent desertion of the ideals of liberty, democracy and security. It was like an intellectual waterboarding, and I loved every minute of it.

This is JD Vance’s stirring speech at the Munich Security Conference yesterday. But you already knew, given it’s gone wildly viral. For 20 minutes, the millennial vice-president upbraided the assembled grey-faced dignitaries over their backsliding from the virtues of the Enlightenment. He lamented ‘the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values’. He invited us to rediscover ‘the blessings of liberty’. Judging by the fits of pique in certain quarters – Vance ‘shocked delegates’ with his ‘blast at Europe’, wailed the babies at the BBC – many an ear is still deaf to his cry for freedom. But some of us are listening.

It was on the liberty to utter, the bedrock virtue of every civilised society, that he issued his most stinging rebukes. ‘Free speech, I fear, is in retreat’, he said. He recounted Europe’s recent acts of nutty censorship. He reminded his audience that German cops raided the homes of citizens ‘suspected of posting anti-feminist comments online’. The old Stasi felt your collar if you criticised your Stalinist betters – the new one comes a’knocking if you mock PC ideologies.

He spoke, with righteous alarm, about how Sweden recently convicted a Christian activist for the blasphemy of burning a Koran, shortly after his friend was murdered for doing the same. He seemed genuinely aghast, as well he might be, that modern Europe would do something as heartless as convict a man for the ‘speechcrime’ his pal had just been killed for. He reserved his greatest concern for ‘our very dear friends, the United Kingdom’. The ‘basic liberties of religious Britons’ are being sacrificed to PC, he said. He cited the arrest of Christians for the thoughtcrime of ‘silently praying’ close to abortion clinics that have had ‘buffer zones’ erected around them. Prayercrime, if you will.

J.D. Vance’s Munich Wake-Up Call: Democracy, Censorship, and the Will of the People Vance’s Munich speech slammed European elites for stifling democracy, warned of censorship and mass migration, and urged leaders to respect voters—or risk losing the very system they claim to defend. By Roger Kimball

https://amgreatness.com/2025/02/16/j-d-vances-munich-wake-up-call-democracy-censorship-and-the-will-of-the-people/

Everyone agrees that Vice President J. D. Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference on Friday was remarkable.

I do not mean that everyone liked it.

For example, Boris Pistorius, the German Defense Minister, sniffed—or perhaps “smoldered” would be a more accurate term, that Vance’s remarks were “not acceptable.”

And then there is Bill Kristol, a sort of Greta Thunberg of the rancid former right, who thundered that Vance’s speech was “a humiliation for the U.S. and a confirmation that this administration isn’t on the side of the democracies.”

“The democracies.”  What do you suppose Kristol means by that?

While you ponder that question, note that other people thought rather well of Vance’s speech.  I thought it was excellent myself, but forget about my opinion.  Jonathan Turley said that Vance’s speech was “perhaps the greatest single declaration uttered since ‘Ich bin ein Berliner.’” It was, Turley wrote elsewhere, “truly Churchillian—no less than the famous Iron Curtain speech in which Churchill dared the West to confront the existential dangers of communism.”

How can we explain the discrepancy: the outraged Pistorius/Kristol reaction and what I will call the Kimball/Turley reaction (though many people besides me applauded Vance’s speech)?

I think it comes down to how one understands that overdetermined, familiar yet often only half-understood word “democracy.”

Kristol said that Vance’s speech showed that the Trump administration was not “on the side of the democracies.”

What do you think of that claim?

I think poorly of it because I believe that a democracy is a political arrangement in which the people are sovereign.

I suspect that Kristol and European bureaucrats of all descriptions believe that it is a form of government in which only the right people, i.e, themselves, are sovereign.

Vance’s speech argued for the former. It also contained several admonitions about what he thought were threats to democracy. For the balance of this column, I’ll gather a little chrestomathy of his observations and let you decide who was right.

Trump’s First Big Disastrous Mistake by Majid Rafizadeh

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21384/trump-iran-disastrous-mistake

The problem, of course, is that after seeing what happened when Libya’s General Muammar Ghaddafi gave up nuclear weapons in 2003 and Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in 1994, no one with an IQ above single digits would ever agree to give up nuclear weapons again – especially after so many decades of immense investment and just “weeks” from the project’s successful completion.

Regrettably, like Russia, Iran has a long track record of deceit, obstructing investigations, and stalling to buy time. Iran’s regime also has the potential to wait four years until Trump’s term in office is over, then pick up where it left off.

The mullahs seek to lull the United States into a false sense of security. They undoubtedly hope that diplomatic engagement will allow them time to race to nuclear weapons breakout, or, at worst, another weak agreement that will enable them to rebuild their military. Whenever Iran gains financial or political leverage, it uses it against America and its allies. Since October 2023, Iran and its proxies have attacked US troops in the region more than 200 times.

Iran’s nuclear facilities must be taken out, sanctions must be intensified, and the Iranian people’s fight for freedom must be supported. Trump must not waste this opportunity.

“I want Iran to be a great and successful country but one that cannot have nuclear weapons,” US President Donald J, Trump posted on Truth Social last week. “I would much prefer a Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement which will successfully let Iran grow and prosper.”

These sentiments, while commendable, especially considering a distasteful alternative for Iran, are unfortunately delusional. The problem, of course, is that after seeing what happened when Libya’s General Muammar Ghaddafi gave up nuclear weapons in 2003 and Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in 1994, no one with an IQ above single digits would ever agree to give up nuclear weapons again – especially after so many decades of immense investment and just “weeks” from the project’s successful completion.

Trump pushes Gaza plan in meeting with Jordan’s King Abdullah II

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-jordan-king-abdullah-white-house-gaza/

Washington — President Trump hosted Jordan’s King Abdullah II at the White House on Tuesday and renewed his suggestions that Gaza could be emptied of residents, controlled by the U.S. and redeveloped as a tourist area — a plan that could likely only work if the Arab nation agrees to accept more refugees.

The pair met in the Oval Office, where Mr. Trump suggested he wouldn’t withhold U.S. aid to Jordan, Egypt or other Arab nations, if they don’t agree to dramatically increase the number of people from Gaza they take in.

“I don’t have to threaten that. I do believe we’re above that,” Mr. Trump said. That contradicted his previous suggestion that holding back aid was a possibility.

Abdullah was asked repeatedly about Mr. Trump’s audacious plan to remake the Middle East, but didn’t make substantive comments on it nor the idea that his country could accept large numbers of new refugees from Gaza. He did say that Jordan would accept roughly 2,000 children with cancer and other health problems “right away.” Mr. Trump said he did not know about that commitment, which he called “a beautiful gesture.”

The president also repeated suggestions that the U.S. could come to control Gaza, but he said that it wouldn’t require committing funds and would come to fruition. He also said that would be possible “under the U.S. authority,” without elaborating what that actually was.

“We’re not going to buy anything. We’re going to have it,” Mr. Trump said of U.S. control in Gaza. He suggested that the redeveloped area could have new hotels, office buildings and houses and “and we’ll make it exciting.”

“I can tell you about real estate. They’re going to be in love with it,” Mr. Trump, who built a New York real estate empire that catapulted him to fame, said of Gaza’s residents, while also insisting that he personally would not be involved in development.

Additionally, Mr. Trump used the meeting to renew his suggestions that a tenuous ceasefire between Hamas and Israel could be canceled if Hamas doesn’t release all of the remaining hostages it is holding by midday on Saturday.

‘Qatar is Hamas, and Hamas is Qatar’ by Khaled Abu Toameh

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21386/qatar-is-hamas

The Israeli hostages kidnapped by Hamas and other Palestinians on October 7 could have been released a long time ago had the Biden administration exerted pressure on Qatar to use its good relations with the Islamist group to force it to do so.

All Qatar had to do was to summon the Hamas leaders in Doha and give them an ultimatum to release all the hostages immediately or face deportation from the Gulf state. It is hard to see how the Hamas leaders would have been able to say no to their major political and financial patrons and backers….The Qataris were never under the slightest pressure.

“For years, Qatar supported the Taliban, and last year [2021] it helped it in its coup against the democratically elected Afghan government, and 13 American service members were killed in the violence. Today, Qatar is doing everything it can to give the Taliban international legitimacy and aid.” – Yigal Carmon, President and Founder of the Middle East Media Research Institute (memri.org), and served as counterterrorism advisor to two Israeli prime ministers; Haaretz, May 10, 2022 and memri.org, October 8, 2024

“Any Arab who hears American officials say that Qatar is America’s ally would burst into laughter…. Ask Egypt, not just the rulers, but the people and journalists. Ask the Emirates, the government and people. Ask Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan. They all know that for decades Qatar has been promoting Islamist and terrorist organizations. There are lawsuits against Qatar in the U.S. and Europe in connection with its support for terrorism.” – Yigal Carmon, President and Founder of the Middle East Media Research Institute (memri.org), and served as counterterrorism advisor to two Israeli prime ministers, memri.org, November 1, 2023

The Trump administration needs to understand what Arabs have known for years: that Qatar’s support for Hamas and other extremist Islamist groups is the main reason thousands of Israelis and Palestinians have died over the past few years.

US President Donald Trump’s recent statements regarding Qatar’s role in reaching the Israel-Hamas ceasefire-hostage deal surprised many, especially those who are familiar with the Gulf state’s longtime support for radical Islamist groups.

“Qatar is absolutely trying to help,” Trump told reporters in Washington. “I know them well, and they’re doing everything they can. Very tough situation, but they’re absolutely trying to help.”