Displaying posts categorized under

FOREIGN POLICY

Munich Redux Why, exactly, would the Mullahs change their behavior? by Bruce Thornton

https://www.frontpagemag.com/munich-redux/

Lost in the spectacle of the high decibel State of the Union speech, and the quadrennial carnival of a presidential election, there was some dangerous news last week that was mostly ignored. Iran, for 46 years a sworn enemy of the U.S. whose citizens it has murdered and interests thwarted with impunity, now possesses all the components for quickly assembling several nuclear bombs.

This development could mark the return of the 1939 diplomatic disaster of England’s and France’s abandonment of Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany, which lit the fuse of the most destructive war in history.

Often considered a mere foreign policy cliché for feckless diplomacy, Munich’s lessons are much more complex, widespread, and consequential than a parable about “a timorous, bumbling, and naïve old gentleman, waving an umbrella as a signal of cringing subservience to a bully,” as historian Telford Taylor described the caricature of England’s Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain.

Rather, Munich is the premier historical paradigm for illusory ideals about foreign policy and diplomatic engagement that rationalize ideological prejudices, partisan interests, and received institutional wisdom––in our times, all at the cost of the exorbitant risk of a global conflict with nuclear-armed autocratic enemies.

And that threat has just intensified with the news about Iran’s nuclear weapons program. The Wall Street Journal last week reported “troubling news” from Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency: “The Agency has lost continuity of knowledge in relation to [Iran’s] production and inventory of centrifuges, rotors and bellows, heavy water and uranium ore concentrate.”

Moreover, the Journal continues, the “Institute for Science and International Security, which has followed Iran’s program for years, says Iran can enrich enough uranium for 13 nuclear weapons, seven in the first month of a breakout. ‘Iran is able to produce more weapon-grade uranium (WGU) and at a faster rate since the IAEA’s last report in November 2023,’ it finds.”

Why the US is Losing the War to the Houthis by Daniel Greenfield

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20463/losing-war-to-houthis

What is the Biden administration doing wrong? Apart from scale, it’s trying to target Houthi drones and missiles, and some air bases…. This is the same approach that failed in Iraq….

When rockets are targeted, the terrorists run away and regroup, but when the terrorists are targeted, they have to keep running, so they don’t have the time and space to regroup.

That is what the proposed hostage deal and the various calls for a ‘ceasefire’ are really about.

Biden is unwilling to target the Houthis and so they keep attacking.

Given a choice between alienating the country and his party’s terror supporters, he chose a middle ground of “show” strikes… that will avoid offending terror supporters but also will not end the Houthi attacks.

This strategy serves no one except Biden who has sacrificed the nation’s prestige, a major international waterway and the lives of two U.S. Navy SEALs to win an election.

After President Joe Biden came home from his Caribbean vacation, the Deputy Defense Secretary came back from hers and the Secretary of Defense was on the verge of being released from the hospital, airstrikes were finally authorized against the Houthi Jihadis attacking ships in the Red Sea.

Biden said that the air strikes sent “a clear message that the United States and our partners will not tolerate attacks on our personnel or allow hostile actors to imperil freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most critical commercial routes.”

Biden’s settlement delusions Contrary to the administration’s claims, history proves that the settlements are neither illegal nor an impediment to peace. Eric Levine

https://www.jns.org/bidens-settlement-delusions/

Last week, the Biden administration reversed the “Pompeo Doctrine,” which recognized that Israeli settlements in Judea and Samaria are not “per se inconsistent with international law.”

Biden’s record of being wrong on every single important foreign policy issue of the last 50 years remains unblemished. His decision is wrong as a matter of law and fact. It is also bad politics and undermines Israeli and American national security.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken summed up the administration’s position by saying, “It’s been longstanding U.S. policy under Republican and Democratic administrations alike that new settlements are counterproductive to reaching an enduring peace. … They’re also inconsistent with international law. Our administration maintains a firm opposition to settlement expansion. And in our judgment, this only weakens—it doesn’t strengthen—Israel’s security.”

History disproves Blinken’s claim that “settlements are counterproductive to reaching an enduring peace.” In fact, Israel has always been willing to remove settlements to achieve peace.

The 1978 Israel-Egypt peace treaty required that Israel dismantle its settlements in the Sinai. Prime Minister Menachem Begin did so, deploying the IDF to physically remove those settlers who refused to leave. Clearly, the settlements were not a barrier to peace.

In 2005, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon ordered the evacuation of all Israelis from Gaza and turned it over to the Palestinians. Like Begin before him, Sharon sent the IDF to remove the settlers who would not leave. There were no Jews in Gaza for 18 years. Only after the Oct. 7 massacre did Israelis return to exercise their legitimate and legal right to self-defense.

Biden Administration Not Stopping Iran, Russia, China, the Houthis by Majid Rafizadeh

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20440/biden-not-stopping-iran-houthis

What is essential to remember is that the Houthis and other proxies of Iran are in all likelihood deeply apprehensive about the prospect of their senior leadership being targeted. By refraining from targeting Houthi leaders, the United States has inadvertently emboldened the group and allowed them to act with impunity.

In recent months, the Red Sea has become a battleground for attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis of Yemen, with the Biden administration facing mounting criticism for its failure to quell the escalating violence. As the Houthi group continues to build its weapons stockpile in Yemen, supported by the Iranian regime, the urgency of the situation cannot be overstated. It is critical that the United States reevaluate its military strategy to effectively address this growing threat.

The current approach, adopted by the Biden administration, is characterized by a reluctance to directly target Houthi leadership. The administration has opted instead to focus solely on destroying weapons and equipment.

This approach, however, has proven ineffective in deterring the Houthis from launching further attacks. What is essential to remember is that the Houthis and other proxies of Iran are in all likelihood deeply apprehensive about the prospect of their senior leadership being targeted. By refraining from targeting Houthi leaders, the United States has inadvertently emboldened the group and allowed them to act with impunity.

A former US military official, who spoke to CNN on the condition of anonymity, pointed out that the current campaign against the Houthis is similar to previous failed endeavors:

“The US campaign against the Houthis appears to bear the hallmarks of many of these highly circumscribed, scrubbed campaigns of the past where we seek to avoid causing them actual pain.”

The Trump administration’s targeted killing of Qassem Soleimani, head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), for instance, resulted in cessation of Iranian harassment of the US as long Trump was in office. If one wants to induce meaningful change in the behavior of the Houthis, unfortunately decisive blows will be necessary.

Sadly, the reliance on cosmetic strikes to destroy Houthi drones and missiles is both financially unsustainable and strategically futile. Continuously expending resources on missiles, worth multi-millions dollars each, to counter far less expensive Houthi weaponry is not a dazzling long-term solution. The Biden administration would be better served targeting Houthi weapons depots and missile launchers to disrupt their military capabilities in a significant way.

Merely intensifying attacks on Houthi infrastructure, however, will not suffice. Without substantially degrading Houthi military capabilities, the recently redesignated terrorist group will continue to pose a significant threat. Therefore, it is imperative to adopt a multifaceted approach that also targets the source of the problem – Iran’s regime.

And The Winner Is — Hamas! by Alan M. Dershowitz

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20399/and-the-winner-is-hamas

What will happen if Hamas is allowed to win this war? If Hamas is permitted to accomplish what it intended by its mass murders, kidnappings and rapes? If the victims of these atrocities— the people of Israel and all countries fighting terrorism — lose? If the prospects for peace in the region and the Free World are seriously damaged? If the relationship between the US and Israel, and the loss of faith in the US as the guarantor of freedom, continues to be fractured?

Instead, the Biden administration may be rewarding Palestinian terrorists by unilaterally recognizing a Palestinian State, which will, of course, soon become militarized.

The anti-Israel left-wingers are not going to vote for Trump, who is more pro-Israel than Biden. Nor are they likely to stay home on Election Day and help Trump. Centrist voters, on the other hand, are likely to vote against Biden if they think he is beholden to the Squad or other anti-American woke extremists.

As important as are the domestic electoral implications of Biden’s weakening support for Israel, the international implications are far more consequential. The world will be a far less safe place if Israel is prevented from defeating and dismantling Hamas’s military capabilities.

Israel is doing everything reasonable to decrease civilian casualties, while Hamas tries to increase them on both sides. American policy should be to help Israel defeat Hamas and prevent the recurrence and spread of its terrorism against civilians, rather than to help Hamas secure a victory by tying Israel’s hands.

So, unless the Biden administration changes course and encourages Israel to achieve its legitimate military goal of defeating Hamas, terrorism will win and civilization will lose.

What will happen if Hamas is allowed to win this war? If Hamas is permitted to accomplish what it intended by its mass murders, kidnappings and rapes? If the victims of these atrocities — the people of Israel and all countries fighting terrorism — lose? If the prospects for peace in the region and the Free World are seriously damaged? If the relationship between the US and Israel, and the loss of faith in the US as the guarantor of freedom, continues to be fractured?

Want to Stop Iran’s Regime? Hit the IRGC Assets by Majid Rafizadeh

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20397/stop-iran-hit-irgc

“No one ever said it better than Osama bin Laden: When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature they are attracted to the strong horse.” — Thomas Friedman, newyorker.com, July 5, 2010.

Especially in the Middle East, leaders are looking for who will protect them.

The Biden administration’s passive response to Iranian aggression is imperiling the region, the United States and the Free World. Iran, along with Qatar, have brought all the mayhem to the Middle East. When Iran achieves nuclear weapons capability, as it appears on the verge of doing, just think of what mayhem it will be able to bring then. Stop Iran now.

The Biden administration’s approach to dealing with Iran has been marked by a series of delayed responses, ineffective actions, and cosmetic sanctions that have clearly failed to deter the Islamic Republic’s aggressive behavior. This passive stance not only bolsters the Iranian regime but also jeopardizes the safety and security of Americans and their allies. A thorough reassessment of strategy and a commitment to assertive diplomacy would seem necessary to say the least.

When Iranian assets have been targeted, or even when a serious intent to do so was conveyed, Iranian leaders have relented from launching attacks on other countries, including the US and its allies. The most recent example occurred last month when Iran launched a missile strike into Pakistan. Pakistan, maintaining diplomatic relations with Iran, responded swiftly by launching multiple strikes into Iran shortly after the attack — in contrast to the delayed responses often observed from the Biden administration. Pakistan’s retaliatory strikes resulted in casualties; Iran has appeared to reconsider its aggressive stance. Iran adopted a softer tone; its foreign ministry issued statements expressing a commitment to fostering good neighborly relations with Pakistan.

Biden’s Shadow Iran Nuclear Deal It can be summarized as follows: bribe and baby the mullahs, and bludgeon Israel for ‘peace’ Benjamin Weingarten

https://www.theepochtimes.com/opinion/the-biden-admins-shadow-iran-nuclear-deal-5581437?utm_medium=app&c=share_pos2&pid=iOS_app_share&utm_source=iOS_app_share

Commentary

The Biden administration is allegedly executing a shadow “nuclear deal” with Iran.The administration never bothered to tell us about the deal.

It clinched the deal without Congress’s approval.

And it may well have purposefully never committed the deal to paper.

But make no mistake, every indicator suggests we are party to an arguably illegally consummated pact that’s getting Americans killed.

The proof is in the pudding not only of the jihadist violence raging across the Middle East—leaving nearly 40 Americans dead and dozens more injured—but the Biden administration’s unwillingness to strike the leading state sponsor of that violence, Iran, with anything remotely resembling sufficient force to deter it, and the White House’s fixation on forcing Israel to end the war on Hamas and abide by the establishment of what would almost certainly amount to a Palestinian terror state to boot.

The shadow Iran nuclear deal can be summarized as follows: bribe and baby the mullahs, and bludgeon Israel for “peace.”

Upon entering office, President Joe Biden eased his predecessor’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran and its proxies, such as the Houthis, in the run-up to an effort to reprise the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—the so-called Obama–Biden Iran nuclear deal.

How to understand—and rectify—the foreign policy disaster of 2024. David Goldman

Saving America’s Future from the Blob
https://americanmind.org/salvo/saving-americas-future-from-the-blob/

Never believe what bipartisan foreign policy establishment hacks say about China and Russia. They don’t believe what they say, either. The Blob (as Obama aide Ben Rhodes called it) learned through generations of strategic blunders that if everyone closes ranks and sticks to the same story, its members will survive a strategic disaster of any magnitude with their careers intact. The same principle explains why not a single American banker went to jail after the subprime collapse of 2008, the biggest fraud in all financial history. The Blob’s logic is simple: If you go after one of us, then you have to go after all of us, and who will be left to put things back together?

Whether it was right for America to go abroad seeking monsters to destroy in Moscow and Beijing, the way we went about it was abominably stupid. “If an injury has to be done to a man it should be so severe that his vengeance need not be feared,” Machiavelli advised. Washington has wounded Russia and China but not disabled them, setting in motion a tragic sequence of responses that in the worst case will lead to war, but more likely will leave the United States with vastly diminished strategic standing.

The rise of China and the resilience of Russia have persisted through serried waves of tech restrictions, $125 billion of NATO support for Ukraine, and an unprecedented sanctions regime against Russia, including the seizure of $300 billion in reserves, among other measures.

The Black Legend propounded by the Blob states that China is on the verge of invading Taiwan because its Communist leaders hate democracy, and because it wants to distract its citizens from their economic misery. It claims that Vladimir Putin wants to revive the Russian Empire and invaded Ukraine because it “is a country that for decades has enjoyed freedom and democracy and the right to choose its own destiny.”

In fact China has bracing economic challenges, but no crisis, and no widespread popular discontent. It wants to preserve the status quo, barring a Taiwanese move toward sovereignty, which is all but ruled out by the results of Taiwan’s national elections this January. China is a formidable strategic competitor, but its global plan centers on dominating key industries and export markets rather than military deployments—and that plan is proceeding at a rapid clip, despite American efforts to hobble it.

The U.S. Must Re-Focus on Curbing Iran’s Nuclear Program By Lawrence J. Haas

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/us-must-re-focus-curbing-iran%E2%80%99s-nuclear-program-209298

Iran’s latest nuclear and ballistic missile advances make Israel’s war with Hamas and America’s skirmishing with Iranian proxy forces look like regional sideshows of a far more ominous main event.

The current situation in the region gives Iran “a unique opportunity and amplified internal justification for building nuclear weapons while the United States and Israel’s resources to detect and deter Iran from succeeding are stretched thin…,” the Institute for Science and International Security wrote in a new report. “[F]or the first time in years, we are facing the real possibility that Iran may choose to weaponize its nuclear capabilities and build nuclear weapons.”

It wouldn’t take Tehran long to do so. With a large stockpile of uranium enriched to sixty percent purity, the institute estimated that the regime could further enrich enough uranium to weapons-grade purity, with the ability to produce a nuclear bomb in a week. Along with strengthening its nuclear infrastructure through building more reactors, enriching more uranium, and refusing to cooperate with international nuclear inspectors, Tehran also continues to advance its ballistic missiles, which could carry nuclear warheads to strike U.S. allies in the region and possibly even the United States itself. In January, the Islamic Republic launched a satellite 450 miles into space, using technologies with “significant overlap” with those of longer-range ballistic missiles.

The implications of Iran’s nuclear-related advances are enormous. Iran could launch an attack against the United States or Israel, its most hated adversaries. Furthermore, it could also transfer a bomb to a proxy (e.g., Hamas or Hezbollah) to use against Israel or another adversary.

All of this demands U.S.-led action on at least two fronts.

360 degrees of hostility: The Biden administration and Israel Caroline Glick

https://centerforsecuritypolicy.org/360-degrees-of-hostility-the-biden-administration-and-israel/

The Mothers of IDF Soldiers group led a demonstration last week of army mothers, reservists in the Israel Defense Forces, bereaved families and other concerned citizens outside the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem. They demanded that President Joe Biden stop leveraging power to force Israel to resupply Hamas.

The following day, hundreds of Israelis, including parents of soldiers, families of hostages and terror victims gathered outside Ashdod Port. For hours, they blocked trucks laden with supplies for Gaza from exiting the port. Activists have been blocking trucks from entering Gaza via the Kerem Shalom and Nitzana border crossings for more than two weeks.

Speaking to the crowd in the southern Israeli city of Ashdod, Shifra Shahar, who runs a nonprofit organization that cares for the needs of soldiers, addressed her remarks to Israel’s leaders:

“Government of Israel, defense minister, IDF chief of staff, get ahold of yourselves!

“No other nation feeds and sustains its enemy! It’s truly an Israeli start-up.

“We had elections last year. I don’t recall voting for [U.S. Secretary of State Antony] Blinken! Blinken is sitting in the war cabinet and protecting the interests of my enemy. … We have sons in Gaza. We have sons fighting. The entry of the trucks endangers them, prolongs the war, increases the number of casualties and delays the return of the hostages!

“They tell me, ‘There are constraints.’ He who is constrained doesn’t win the war.

“They tell me, ‘The Americans are threatening not to provide us with ammunition.’

“To this, I say, if we were besieging them, we wouldn’t need ammunition! The war would end. They’d be screaming for help, returning the hostages and the war would end!”

The rising expressions of rage at the Biden administration from ordinary citizens are a testament to the shock and anger Israelis feel at what they perceive as a betrayal of Israel’s most basic interests by Biden and his top advisers.