RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18634/ukraine-russia-new-munich

Mr Macron, in particular, has emerged as the chief European cheerleader in favour of Ukraine making concessions to Russia to end the fighting, while the leaders of Germany and Italy, which both rely heavily on Russia for their energy needs, are also said to favour Ukraine ceding territory to Moscow – a result that would only whet the appetite of other predators looking on.

Rather than agreeing to their demands, Mr Zelensky responded by pointedly reminding his visitors that the more weapons Ukraine receives from the West, the faster it will be able to liberate its occupied land and end the war.

In this context, plans by the European Union to offer membership to Kyiv represent a welcome gesture of support for the Ukrainian people, one that should provide a much needed morale boost for Ukrainian forces.

In what amounts to a significant geo-political shift in Europe, the European Commission has given its backing to Ukraine’s bid to be given candidacy status, the first step towards achieving full EU membership.

The challenge for the EU now will be to make sure priority is given to processing Kyiv’s application, and not allow it to become caught up in the stultifying bureaucracy of Brussels.

Any attempt by the EU to delay Ukraine’s membership of the bloc will simply be taken as a sign by Mr Putin that Europe is not prepared to defend its allies, and encourage the Kremlin — and others — to launch further acts of aggression.

At a time when there is mounting concern that European leaders are suffering from “war fatigue” over the Ukraine conflict, the prospect of Kyiv becoming an official candidate for European Union membership constitutes a much-needed morale boost for the Ukrainian people.

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2022/06/saudis-crow-over-biden-coming-hat-hand-riyadh-hugh-fitzgerald/

What was once planned as a quick visit to Israel-and-the-Palestinians by President Biden has become a three-way affair, with Saudi Arabia not only added to the itinerary, but has become the main event, the meeting in Riyadh with the Saudi Crown Prince will overshadow his lightning visits to Jerusalem and Bethlehem. In Israel, Biden will attend the Maccabiah Games and no doubt discuss with Prime Minister Bennett ways for Israel to tamp down “tension” in the area – even though all such tension is provoked by the Palestinians – and he will repeat, in his conversations with both Israel and the Palestinians, the latest mantra of the Bidenites, that he “looks forward to reaffirming his lifelong commitment to a two-state solution and to discuss the ways in which we might rekindle a new political horizon that can ensure equal measures of freedom, security, prosperity, and dignity to Israelis and Palestinians alike.“

I’m not sure Israel and the Palestinians can have “equal measures of freedom, security, prosperity, and dignity,” given the failure of the Palestinians to create a free and democratic society – a failure that we see in all 22 states of the Arab League, where either despots or monarchs rule, but nowhere is there a true democracy, of citizens rather than subjects. Nor can the Palestinians, with Islam stunting their mental growth, ever hope to rival the advanced state of Israel, with the astonishing inventiveness of its people. In Israel innovation is welcome; Muslim Arabs regard innovation, or bida, with deep suspicion. As for “equal measures of…..dignity,” both Hamas and the PA have shown how little they care for the “dignity” of those they rule over, people who are not permitted to choose their rulers by elections, and who are arrested or even executed for daring to criticize those rulers. Why would the people in a “Palestinian state” fare any better than they do now under Hamas in Gaza, or under the PA in the West Bank? It will be amusing, however, to hear Biden repeat that mantra to Mahmoud Abbas – all that guff about “equal measures of freedom, security, prosperity and dignity” – that is, to the very man who is now in the 17th year of his four-year term, who had his harshest critic, Nizar Banat, beaten to death, and who has amassed a fortune of $400 million consisting mostly of aid money he stole.

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2022/06/collapsing-pillars-iranian-regime-struan-stevenson/

There were three pillars on which the Iranian regime was founded, following the 1979 revolution, hi-jacked by the elderly fanatical cleric Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The first pillar was the system of velayat-e-faqih, or guardianship of the Islamic jurist, which laid the foundations for the first fundamentalist Islamic state and was written into the constitution. The second pillar was the complete transfer of all power and authority to the Supreme Leader and from him to the theocracy of ayatollahs and mullahs, who perversely claimed their authority came directly from God. The third and final pillar, carefully designed by Khomeini, was the creation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), his own version of the Gestapo, to spread their revolutionary policy of violence and terror at home and beyond Iran’s borders.Today, the theocracy is so hated by 80 million repressed and impoverished Iranians, that only two pillars remain, velayat-e-faqih and the IRGC. Everyone knows that a stool with only two legs cannot persist.

The IRGC controls around 70 percent of the Iranian economy, including its monetary and financial institutions. It pays no taxes and funnels resources into the pockets of the ruling elite. It also commands the regime’s clandestine campaign to build a nuclear weapon. Khomenei moved rapidly to eliminate opposition to his clerical dictatorship, ruthlessly using the IRGC to murder tens of thousands of political opponents whom he said were guilty of ‘moharebeh’ or ‘waging war against God.’ The secret massacre of over 30,000 supporters of the main democratic opposition movement, the People’s Mojahedin of Iran/Mojahedin e-Khalq (PMOI/MEK), in the latter half of 1988, stands out as one of the worst crimes against humanity of the late twentieth century and is now under active investigation by the UN. Startling as these figures may be, they are only a fraction of the estimated 120,000 political prisoners executed so far during the clerical dictatorship in Iran.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18610/eu-superpower-delusion

As the war has dragged on, European unity has collapsed and efforts to transform the European Union into a European superstate — a United States of Europe — have been exposed for what they are: delusions of grandeur.

The EU’s largest member states — France and Germany — have sought to appease Putin at the expense of Ukrainian sovereignty. French President Emmanuel Macron, the strongest backer of European strategic autonomy, insists that Putin should not be “humiliated” and has even called on Ukraine to make territorial concessions to help the Russian dictator save face.

“Calls to avoid humiliation of Russia can only humiliate France. We all better focus on how to put Russia in its place. This will bring peace and save lives.” — Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.

“Did anyone talk to Adolf Hitler like that during WWII? Did someone say Adolf Hitler had to save face? That we should proceed in such a way that it is not humiliating for Adolf Hitler?” — Polish President Andrzej Duda, Bild, June 9, 2022

“The end of French exceptionalism. Once you claim your main role to be a mediator between right and wrong, days of grandeur are over. ‘Saving face’ is a weak diplomatic aim; Putin can take personal responsibility for his face.” — John Chipman, Director General, International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“Peace at any cost is what we have done for 20 years with Putin. Peace at any cost means Putin wins. We end up losing.” — Latvian Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš, Politico, May 30, 2022.

“The west has two goals in the war in Ukraine: to uphold Ukrainian sovereignty and to deter Russia from any similar assaults on European countries in the future…. If another round of European diplomacy leaves Russia once again sitting on its military gains in Ukraine, then Putin will regain political strength at home and feel empowered to launch new military adventures in the future.” — John Sawers, former head, MI6, Financial Times, June 8, 2022.

“The lesson of current experience is that only the United States is capable of holding Russia in check. The vehicle for this remains NATO, which has not outlived itself, but is more important as the security policy core of a free West than it has been for decades.” — Ulrich Speck, Neue Zürcher Zeitung, June 8, 2022.

The leaders of France, Germany and Italy have jointly visited Ukraine in an attempt to present a unified European front regarding the Russia-Ukraine war. The one-day visit was long on rhetoric but short on substance: European unity remains elusive.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18487/russia-influence-africa

“Russia relies on a series of asymmetric (and often extralegal) measures for influence—mercenaries, arms-for-resource deals, opaque contracts, election interference, and disinformation.” — Joseph Siegle, Director of Research at the Brookings Institution’s Africa Center for Strategic Studies, February 2, 2022.

Although trade between Russia and African countries has reportedly doubled since 2015, to about $20 billion a year, China is still Africa’s largest trade partner, with trade between China and the continent at $254 billion in 2021. But Russia’s ultimate aims in Africa are the same as China’s: To gain influence by making African countries dependent on its services. While in the case of China, investments and infrastructure are offered in exchange for strategic access to vital natural resources and political leverage, in the case of Russia, it is weapons and Russian state-sponsored mercenaries, known as private military companies (PMCs) in return for the same.

“In its African strategy, the Kremlin is motivated foremost by a desire to thwart U.S. policy objectives, almost irrespective of their substance.. Considering Africa ‘one of Russia’s foreign policy priorities,’ Russian President Vladimir Putin also seeks to create African dependencies on Moscow’s military assets …. targeting countries that have fragile governments but are often rich in important raw materials, such as oil, gold, diamonds, uranium, and manganese… They also offer to these governments the ability to conduct counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations unconstrained by human rights responsibilities… In turn, Russia seeks payment in concessions for natural resources, substantial commercial contracts, or access to strategic locations, such as airbases or ports.” — Federica Saini Fasanotti, the Brookings Institution, February 8, 2022.

The largest and most famous of Russia’s PMCs is the Wagner Group, a paramilitary organization linked to Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close ally of Vladimir Putin. Although ostensibly appearing as a private business, “its management and operations are deeply intertwined with the Russian military and intelligence community” according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and should be seen, therefore, as “a proxy organization of the Russian state rather than a private company selling services on the open market.”

“Russia’s Wagner Group has withdrawn about 1,300 of its mercenaries from Libya to Russia through Syria to participate in the Russian military operation in Ukraine, according to military and strategic expert Colonel Adel Abdel Kafi.” — Middle East Monitor, March 26, 2022.

“Our competitors clearly see Africa’s rich potential. Russia and China both seek to convert soft and hard power investments into political influence, strategic access, and military advantage.” — General Stephen Townsend, Commander of United States Africa Command, Senate Armed Services Committee on March 15, 2022.

When the United Nations General Assembly voted on March 2, 2022 on a resolution to condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, 17 African countries abstained, eight countries did not vote at all and one country (Eritrea) voted against the resolution. When Russia was suspended from the UN Human Rights Council on April 7, African countries were even less willing to counter Russia: Nine African countries voted against suspending Russia, while 24 countries abstained.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18624/war-change-the-world

Shaped over the past seven decades, that is to say after the Second World War, what is known as the international order has been based on three principles which, although not always observed, have helped keep the edifice intact.

The first principle was what is known as international law, built around the United Nations Charter and over 10,000 international treaties and protocols endorsed by a majority of the existing 193 states. The invasion of Ukraine has violated that principle in a dramatic way. Because the aggressor is a veto-holding member of the UN Security Council, the issue cannot even be handled even formally by the United Nations.

The second principle was consensus in favor of free trade, subject to bilateral and/or international accords. It took decades of negotiations at various levels for the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) to morph into the World Trade Organization. With the advent of globalization, support for the free flow of goods and capital, and in some cases labor, cut across ideological divides among the larger nation-states.

That principle, too, has been violated….

Suddenly a global economic system [protecting capital] that worked like a clock is hit with numerous hitches.

As you can see, we have more problems than not trying to humiliate Tsar Vladimir.

Is the war in Ukraine no more than a patch of cloud in an otherwise bright sky? This seems to be the Panglossian opinion of some elites in Western democracies who, like French President Emmanuel Macron, are anxious not to humiliate Russian President Vladimir Putin over a mere peccadillo.

https://www.jns.org/opinion/israelis-get-out-of-turkey-right-now/

For well over a week, the Israeli government has been urging Israelis in Turkey to return home as soon as possible. It has also admonished those unable or unwilling to cut short their holidays not to frequent shops, restaurants or tourist attractions and, if possible, not to leave their rooms at all.

The warning stems from an immediate and concrete threat from Iran. According to accounts in some media outlets last week, a group of Israelis enjoying themselves in Istanbul received a phone call from security services ordering them not to return to their hotel, as Iranian terrorists were lying in wait. These travelers were picked up and promptly put on a plane without their belongings.

A far more specific report emerged on Saturday night, with an anonymous defense official revealing that Iran’s mission to murder Israelis in Istanbul was ongoing and in full swing. While praising the close cooperation with Ankara authorities that enabled the thwarting of a number of imminent attacks, he announced that the Iranian cells operating in the area know exactly which hotels have Israelis guests and how to recognize them.

His revelation followed a meeting on Friday afternoon between Mossad chief David Barnea and National Security Council head Eyal Haluta, after which they issued similarly warnings: Israelis in Turkey should refrain from posting on social media and riding in taxis, and should lock their hotel-room doors and refuse to open them for anyone, including chambermaids.

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/hard-slogging-donbas-ukraine-russia-artillery/

A brutal artillery battle: that’s what the latest phase of Russia’s war on Ukraine has become. Vladimir Putin failed in his original goal of seizing the entire country swiftly, beginning with the capital of Kyiv, and installing a puppet government. When Ukrainian resistance prevented that, Putin shifted to a smaller, more achievable objective: establishing complete control over two eastern provinces, Luhansk and Donetsk, which border Russia and are jointly known as the Donbas region. That’s where the war is being fought now, with an uncertain outcome. Victory will depend on who wins the artillery battle. Russia has more blunt firepower; Ukraine has more precise, longer-range weapons — or at least it will have them when more NATO supplies reach the frontlines.

Seizing the Donbas provinces would complete a project Russia began in 2014, when it captured parts of that region, plus the Crimean peninsula. Establishing complete control now would give Russia a secure “land bridge” from its own territory to Crimea, as well as a base to continue destabilizing Ukraine. From there, it could launch further attacks and seize still more territory after regrouping and resupplying its battered army. Putin’s ultimate goal is the same as it has been since the beginning: seize as much Ukrainian territory as possible, terrorize the population, eliminate the country’s independence and turn Ukraine into a subordinate satellite.

Ukraine’s goals are to prevent that conquest, retake as much land as possible, reestablish complete sovereignty over its territory and prevent future attacks and destabilization. Its immediate, minimal goal is to push Russia back to the territory it held in February, before Putin launched this unprovoked war.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18612/china-new-way-of-war

“Chinese thinkers have clearly stated that the core operational concept of intelligentized warfare is to directly control the enemy’s will. The idea is to use AI to directly control the will of the highest decision-makers, including the president, members of Congress, and combatant commanders, as well as citizens.” — Colonel Koichiro Takagi, senior fellow of Training Evaluation Research and Development Command, Japan Ground Self-Defense Force, War on the Rocks, April 13, 2022.

“War has started to shift from the pursuit of destroying bodies to paralyzing and controlling the opponent. The focus is to attack the enemy’s will to resist, not physical destruction” and to cause “the brain to become the main target of offense and defense of new concept weapons… To win without fighting is no longer far-fetched.” — Bill Gertz, describing a report written in 2019 by China’s People’s Liberation Army, in the Washington Times, December 29, 2021.

“The PLA plans to employ all available tools to the overarching objective of reducing an enemy’s will to resist.” — Ben Noon, research assistant at the American Enterprise Institute and Dr. Chris Bassler, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, Defense One, September 17, 2021.

“Influencing human cognition requires a large amount of detailed personal information to identify influential individuals or to conduct influential operations according to the characteristics of subgroups of people. China has already collected a massive amount of personal information on government officials and ordinary U.S. citizens…. China has even succeeded in identifying CIA agents operating in foreign countries using such data. These activities are particularly aggressive and coercive in Taiwan and Hong Kong, which the Chinese government considers its territory. Attempts to use digital means to influence elections have also been seen in Taiwan’s recent presidential election.” — Colonel Koichiro Takagi, War on the Rocks, April 13, 2022.

While cognitive warfare may sound like science fiction to most people, experts have cautioned that the US needs to take the threat seriously.

“They should also designate the cognitive arena as a new operational arena, along with land, air, sea, space, and cyberspace, to raise awareness and invest resources. Furthermore, it is necessary to consider how to win the ‘battle of narratives’ to counter the manipulation of public opinion in wartime.” — Colonel Koichiro Takagi, War on the Rocks, April 13, 2022.