RUTHFULLY YOURS

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Morning. A little more than 24 hours ago, yesterday morning, we were in the bomb shelter in the basement of our building — for the third time in quick succession. Iran was firing missiles in a staggered sequence, and our Home Front Command seemed confused by it.

It was during that third time in the bomb shelter, here in Be’er Sheva, that we heard the tremendous bang of an interceptor hitting a missile not far overhead. Out of two missiles arriving here in that sally, that was the one that was downed. The other was not downed — instead pulverizing an apartment building and killing an 18-year-old soldier who had been training in an elite unit, his girlfriend, his mother, and an older woman who was an active protester for the hostages in Gaza.

That was how the “ceasefire” began for us — with Iran sneaking in some last missiles and snuffing out four lives, including two very young people.

When, about three hours later, the ceasefire having formally begun, Iran fired still more missiles, this time at northern Israel, our leaders thought — as any leaders would have — that we had to react. That was when, with the warplanes on the way to Iran, President Trump had his now-famous, profane tantrum at Israel and lambasted our prime minister over the phone, and all the planes were recalled except one that executed a minor, purely symbolic attack.

So where do we stand? Is it time to celebrate the defeat of Iran, the demise of its nuclear and ballistic-missile endeavors? Or too early for that, with disturbing reports saying too much of Iran’s means of destruction have survived?

Here in Israel we barely had time to ponder those questions before — just about 24 hours after the deaths in Be’er Sheva — we got the news that, yesterday, seven soldiers had been killed in Gaza when “a Palestinian terror operative planted a bomb on the Puma armored combat engineering vehicle the soldiers were in.”

If anybody was feeling jubilant, it was enough to shatter it.

And it has been that way since the Israel–Iran war — the war pitting Israel against Iran and its proxies — began with the calamity of October 7, 2023. An indescribable rollercoaster of feelings, from abysmal despair to amazement and glee at our astounding intelligence and military achievements.

And this is what it’s like when you’re at the cusp of civilization and can’t just theorize about, make excuses for, or even endorse barbarism, but have no choice but to fight it — while getting widely reviled for doing so.

And what of those assessments of where things stand now, how hard Iran has been hit, what the future holds?

A CNN-cited “early US intelligence assessment” that’s making the rounds says the

US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of [Iran’s] nuclear program and likely only set it back by months…. Two of the people familiar with the assessment said Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was not destroyed. One of the people said the centrifuges are largely “intact.” Another source said that the intelligence assessed enriched uranium was moved out of the sites prior to the US strikes.

Israeli intelligence disagrees,

assess[ing] that US and Israeli strikes set back Iran’s nuclear program by “several years” [and that] the strikes on the nuclear program along with other military targets in Iran will serve as a deterrent against the Islamic Republic again trying to enrich uranium.

Two notable experts also take a more positive view. David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, says: “Iran has likely lost close to 20,000 centrifuges at Natanz and Fordow, creating a major bottleneck in any reconstitution effort. Moreover, there has been considerable damage to Iran’s ability to build the nuclear weapon itself.”

And Rafael Grossi, director general of the watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency, states: “It is clear that there is one Iran before June 13 — nuclear Iran — and one now. It is night and day.”

But it is also notable that some Israeli observers are more worried.

Sima Shine, a former Mossad official and now at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, told The Telegraph:

“I’m sure they have a hidden place somewhere with some hundreds, if not thousands of centrifuge[s] and they have material all there in several places all over Iran.

“They cannot do anything now, tomorrow, but in the future, they have all the capabilities [to build a bomb].”

And veteran security-affairs analyst Ron Ben Yishai, in a piece titled (in part) “Israel must prepare for another round with Iran,” says:

Israel must ensure that Iran is not attempting a rapid breakout toward a basic nuclear weapon, such as a crude “dirty bomb”—using its remaining stockpile of 60% enriched uranium and several hundred advanced centrifuges reportedly hidden away.

Iran may try to buy time for its scientists to assemble a rudimentary nuclear device that could be mounted on a missile.

…Both damage assessments and negotiations over a new nuclear deal could take several months, possibly up to half a year. If, by then, results are unsatisfactory from Israel’s perspective, or if Iran drags its feet, another military confrontation may be necessary — ideally coordinated with Washington. Either way, Israel must already begin preparing for that possibility.

I would sum it up this way: As long as the ayatollah regime exists, nothing will divert it from its “Death to Israel, Death to America” objectives and it must be kept under the strictest possible intelligence surveillance at all times. It is not encouraging that President Trump has already reverted to silly rhetoric about taming the mullahs with inducements: “They’re going to get on to being the great trading nation. They have a lot of oil”; and even less encouraging that he already says they can resume selling oil to China. Trying to keep the president focused on the nature of this regime and the danger it continues to pose is part of our very difficult struggle.