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President Donald Trump’s bold move to take out Iran’s nuclear arms program and broker a ceasefire between Iran and Israel seems to have worked, at least so far. But while a large share of Americans believe the ceasefire won’t hold, the majority are taking a wait-and-see approach, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll indicates.

The online national I&I/TIPP Poll of 1,421 adults was taken from June 25-27, mere days after the June 22 U.S. military attack to cripple Iran’s nuclear facilities.

I&I/TIPP asked respondents the following question: “Do you believe the recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran will lead to lasting peace in the region?”

Among those taking the poll, the history of the Mideast, with repeated wars between Israel and its neighbors, weighed heavily: 43% said “No, fighting is likely to resume,” versus just 19% who said “Yes, the ceasefire is likely to hold.”

But the big winner wasn’t yay or nay, but rather “wait and see.” Because of the 57% who didn’t say “no,” in addition to the 19% answering “yes,” another 28% said it was “Too soon to tell,” while 10% answered “Not sure.” So, in short, a majority think it’s either a success or too early to know.

So, as has always been the case, in the Mideast uncertainty reigns and trouble always seems to loom on the horizon. And while the picture in the U.S. is further clouded by the usual partisan differences, that’s not really the case this time.

Democrats (14%), Republicans (29%) and independents (12%) are all underwhelmed by the prospects of a lasting peace between Israel and Iran. Pessimism reigns, with Democrats (51%), Republicans (34%) and independents (47%) all seeing it as more probable that war between those countries and possibly others will resume rather than end.

I&I/TIPP asked one other question: “Given President Trump’s role in brokering recent ceasefires, including between Israel and Iran and between India and Pakistan, do you believe he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize?”

Unlike the first question, responses to this one were predictably partisan. Overall, 31% said yes, 50% said no, and 19% said not sure.

But political differences were big: Among Democrats (14% yes, 73% no) and independents (19% yes, 61% no), Trump would be an undeserving recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. Republicans, however, favored the idea by a wide margin: 57% yes, just 24% no.

The enduring question in the Mideast has for decades been the durability of peace in the region. That has been the case at least since the end of World War I, when the Ottoman Empire melted away and the winning powers in the war redrew the map of the Mideast to suit western politics and interests rather than regional reality.

Since the modern state of Israel’s creation in 1948, pressure on Israel from both official armies and terrorist groups in the surrounding 23 Arab and mostly Islamic states with their 473 million people has been consistent.

As such, as a matter of history, it would seem a ceasefire would be a fragile thing. But that didn’t stop Trump, who quickly backed Israel’s strong retaliation against Hamas for massacring 1,200 of its citizens and injuring 5,431 more on Oct. 7, 2023.

He followed up with support and military backing for Israel as it attacked Iranian military sites. Iran is the principal sponsor and supplier of Hamas, Hezbollah and other Islamic fundamentalist terrorist groups.

Trump, who has consistently over the last decade maintained that a nuclear-armed Iran was unacceptable, followed Israel’s actions with a bombing campaign that crippled Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Seeking to broaden his efforts, Trump has expanded the Abraham Accords, which exchange diplomatic recognition for Israel among its neighboring Arab states for expanded trade and investment opportunities.

In addition, Israel is already having “advanced talks” with Syria about ending hostilities between their two countries, after Trump dropped all the major trade sanctions against Damascus.

Meanwhile, Qatar, which provides a home for Hamas’ leadership and heavily subsidizes the organization, has ordered the group to disarm as a prelude to ceasefire talks. And a defeated Hamas has agreed.

As a Times of Israel headline noted in early July, “Hamas said okay with US guarantee on talks to end Gaza war, as ceasefire momentum grows.”

In short, while the possibility of peace in the Middle East is no sure thing, it seems closer than ever today.

But Trump hasn’t limited his efforts just to the Mideast. He’s actively sought a limited ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict (no permanent one yet), kept India and Pakistan (both nuclear powers) from coming to blows over their ongoing territorial disputes, and intervened successfully to get a ceasefire between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda in Africa.

This has all been done in the first six months of Trump’s return to the White House. As radio show host and commentator Hugh Hewitt recently noted: “No president of my adult lifetime and probably back to LBJ or Truman had as consequential a first six months as President Trump has had in his second term.”

For now, Americans are in wait-and-see mode when it comes to peace in the Mideast and elsewhere, as the I&I/TIPP Poll shows. And with good reason. But perhaps with more time, Trump will provide equally good reason to be more optimistic.

I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.

Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.