RUTHFULLY YOURS

I am a bit this way but mostly that way on Trump’s strategy on Iran. Mostly unenamoured. Dropping those bunker-buster bombs was an unmitigated good thing. It seems unlikely after the Israel bombardment and Trump’s coup de grâce that the Iranians will be able to get back on the nuclear track very quickly, even if some minor mole in the Pentagon leaked it otherwise. But where to from here? Has anything been lastingly solved? Hardly.While the mullahs call the shots nothing will change. I get the impression from Trump that he believes the Iranian leaders will get behind a MIGA movement (make Iran great again). Doubt it. He is dealing with religious fanatics who look forward to the end times when Muhammad al-Mahdi, the twelfth imam, will return and make Shia Islam great again.

I trust that someone has educated Trump on Islam. Otherwise, however good his negotiation skills, he is out of his depth. Islamists (i.e., fundamentalist Muslims to which legion the ayatollahs most certainly belong) will lie and cheat with impunity if they believe it is in the interests of protecting and promoting Islam. They are obliged to do so. Quite simply you can’t deal with them on a transactional basis. Netanyahu understands that. That’s why he must be secretly ropeable about Trump’s 12-days war when many more days were required.

An opportunity has been recklessly thrown away. Not only to inflict considerably more damage on Iran’s military apparatus but to trigger a regime change; the only pathway to a lasting peaceful solution. There is no other. Was Trump fearful of being blamed for American casualties if the war continued? I hope not. That would be the most fatal of flaws. There is another explanation. Bad enough but not so bad.

A clue is in Trump’s comment: “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f**k they’re doing.” The expletive is unimportant. What is important is the equivalence he appears to draw between Iran and Israel. Don’t get me wrong. Trump knows where the fault lies. The equivalence he is drawing is a transactional one. After twelve days of war both countries will surely see peace and prosperity as the better option. Once, that is, their heads are knocked together. That is seriously misguided. As strange as it may seem to your average Western magnate.

Israel wants peace and prosperity. Iran doesn’t. We know that because peace and prosperity was always available to Iran and they chose freely not to embrace it. Why would they genuinely embrace it now? Only wide-eyed optimists would think they would. Ridding the world of the “Little Satan” is a much more desirable to the mullahs than having a prosperous and peaceful life. 

Appreciating the mullahs’ mindset is a vital part of the equation. Another is appreciating Israel’s vulnerability: a country of just 10 million people with a land area of 8,630 square miles. Compare Iran: 90 million people with a land area of 636,372 square miles. Stand on the Green Line, the border before the Six-Day War of 1967 and still the internationally recognised border. At one point Tel Aviv is within a cannon shot. Iran is a bit further away, but it has missiles.

A non-nuclear Iran with thousands of missiles and money to fund terrorist proxies is still an existential threat to Israel. So exactly what kind of a lasting peace agreement can be struck with Iran? No nukes doesn’t do it. There has to be no missiles and no money funding terrorist proxies. Good luck with that. I mean part of the agreement will be a relaxation of sanctions. That means the mullahs will have more money to fund their Islamic crusade against Israel. Yet will it be spent on roads, schools, hospitals, social welfare and such? Pigs might fly. Trump appears to be living in a Panglossian world. Perhaps that is just the appearance not the reality. Let’s hope so.