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President Donald Trump has expended a lot of effort negotiating new tariffs with America’s trade partners. But will tariffs lead to lower income taxes and more factories at work in the U.S., as suggested? A plurality, though not a majority, of Americans say they will, and support them for that reason, according to the latest I&I/TIPP Poll.

With hot debate over tariffs ongoing and current talks with trade partners, tariffs have been in the media spotlight this year.

Seeking to find out how Americans see tariffs, the I&I/TIPP Poll posed the following statement to respondents: “President Trump recently stated that tariffs could lower or even eliminate income taxes for people earning under $200,000 a year.”

They were then asked: “Does this make you: More likely to support tariffs; Less likely to support tariffs; Neither more nor less likely to support tariffs; Not sure.”

The tally showed that a plurality of 32% answered “more likely,” while 25% said “less likely.” Another 30% said “neither more nor less,” but 13% said they weren’t sure.

Once again, demographic differences show there’s not really much overall common agreement.

Start with political affiliation. Only 16% of Democrats say they’re likely to support tariffs if they cut income taxes, while 54% of Republicans and 25% of independents do. Of the “less likely” responses, 37% are Democratic, only 15% Republican and 23% independent. As for the “neither” responses, 34% are Dem, 22% are GOP, and 36% come from indie voters.

Men and women differ as well, with 38% of men “more likely” to support tariffs with income tax cuts, while only 26% of women say the same. But among the “less likely” answers, the two genders are virtually the same: men 25%, women 24%.

One other big gap was between those who self-describe as “investor” vs. a non-investor. Investors (48%) have the highest rate of response to the question of support for tariffs with income tax cuts, while non-investors (26%) were nearly half that.

But again, the two groups were statistically equal on the “less likely” response, with both at 25%. Meanwhile, the highest response to the “neither more nor less likely” choice was investors at 26% vs. non-investors at 34%.

That wasn’t the only tariff query. The I&I/TIPP Poll also asked those taking the survey whether they agree with Trump’s basic assertion that tariffs will help revive America’s manufacturing base.

The question: “President Trump has proposed global tariffs on countries with large trade surpluses with the U.S., saying they will help bring back American manufacturing. Do you agree or disagree with this view?”

The answer is: Most agree, many of them strongly.

Among those responding, 49% said they either agree “strongly” (25%) or “somewhat” (24%) with the idea that tariffs on those with large U.S. trade surpluses will boost U.S. manufacturing, while 38% disagreed either “somewhat” (15%) or “strongly” (23%). Another 13% said they weren’t sure.

Once again, the three major parties are like the Three Bears of fable fame: The Democrats don’t like tariffs much if at all (only 28% agree on tariffs, but 60% disagree), Republicans are all in on embracing them (79% agree, on tariffs, just 13% disagree), and independents are somewhere in the middle (42% agree, 44% disagree).

There’s more than a bit of irony in this, as has been noted elsewhere. Traditionally, Democrats were home to protectionist and pro-tariffs sentiment, while Republicans toed a more free-market line. That’s not the case today.

Indeed, Trump’s tariff proposals have received some taciturn backing by Democrats in Congress, leading to intra-party squabbles among Dem regulars, but also among Republicans. Vice President Vance in late April “cast a tie-breaking vote in the Senate that killed a bipartisan effort to rebuke President Donald Trump’s trade policy,” as reported by CNN.

Still, overall the tariffs are liked or accepted by more than rejected. The once-thriving, now-ailing industrial American heartland hopes to regain its factory-built mojo, along with the well-paying jobs those factories contained, through Trump’s tariffs.

It’s a big reason why backing for the tariffs is strongest in the industrial Northeast (50%) and South (56%) than it is in the heavily agricultural Midwest (45%) and the high-tech and entertainment-driven West (43%). Indeed, the West is the only region where more people disagree (45%) with tariffs than agree (43%), though the margin is small.

Tariffs have inevitably also become entwined in debates over globalism and its major institutions, ranging from the World Trade Organization, International Monetary Fund and World Bank, to the United Nations, World Economic Forum and the dozens of non-governmental organizations that pepper the globalist scene.

Increasingly, many on both sides of the political equation view globalism as a kind of silent coup in which long-held national rights and interests are subsumed by global organizations whose actual allegiances and own interests are often questionable at best.

With Trump in office, globalists have been running scared, even losing support from once-reliable left-of-center voices. That includes former Rolling Stone editor Matt Taibbi.

“It seemed obvious that NAFTA, the WTO, and the extension of cushy trade arrangements with China and other unfree labor zones were a gigantic end-run around American labor, safety, and environmental laws,” wrote Taibbi. “It was an asset-stripping scheme, designed to help CEOs boost their share prices by cutting costs of American parts, labor, and regulatory compliance from their bottom lines.”

Harsh, sure, but not too far these days from what even some conservatives also say. Free trade is no longer everyone’s darling, and the very topic of trade policy perhaps seems more bipartisan today than in decades.

Right now, Trump’s success in negotiating a comprehensive trade deal with Britain and one possibly on the way with China, with the possibility of hefty tariffs imposed on the world’s second-largest economy, has led to strong reactions.

Manufacturers are happy, citing a flood of new investment and orders following Trump’s tariff actions against China. But Federal Reserve officials and many private economists warn Trump’s tariffs will bring “higher inflation and slower growth.”

Much of the debate so far has focused not on data, but instead on what has happened to particular groups of Americans during the post-war era of global free trade and shrinking tariffs.

But many economists remain unconvinced of the benefits of restoring a global tariff system, saying it won’t create prosperity as free trade and low tariffs have.

A recent poll of 80 economists by the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business found that 58% either disagreed or disagreed strongly with the notion that “Matching US import tariffs to the tariffs, value-added taxes and non-tariff barriers imposed on US goods by other countries would substantially reduce the US trade deficit.”

And, while 41% said it was “uncertain,” only 1% answered it was “certain.”

So this time around, economists might be relegated to sitting on the debate sidelines, while political partisans and the public argue the merits. As the I&I/TIPP Poll clearly demonstrates, though not overwhelming, voter support for Trump’s tariff plans is substantial.

I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.

Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.