https://www.spiked-online.com/2025/05/01/why-india-and-pakistan-are-on-the-brink-of-war/
Not for the first time, nuclear-armed rivals Pakistan and India have exchanged fire in the disputed territory of Kashmir. The fighting follows last week’s jihadist attack, in which 26 non-Muslim tourists were killed at a popular beauty spot in Pahalgam, Kashmir. Responsibility for the attack has since been claimed by the Resistance Front, an affiliate of the Pakistan-based jihadist group, Lashkar-e-Taiba, which orchestrated the 2008 Mumbai attacks that killed 175 people.
Although Islamabad denies any involvement, India’s response shows it doesn’t believe the denials. New Delhi has closed the border to Pakistan, expelled diplomats and ordered almost all Pakistani citizens to leave India. In an unprecedented move, it has also suspended the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty, which guarantees water supply to Pakistan and provides 80 per cent of the water Pakistan uses for agriculture. According to reports, the Indian authorities have now arrested 1,500 people in Kashmir and destroyed homes linked to the alleged attackers.
In turn, Pakistan has responded by shutting down airspace and halting trade, all the while insisting that the Pahalgam attack was a ‘false-flag operation’, supposedly staged by India as a pretext for war. Ominously, it has described the decision to restrict water supplies as an ‘act of war’. Pakistan says it has ‘reinforced’ its military on the grounds that an attack by India is ‘imminent’.
While a tentative ceasefire has existed between India and Pakistan since 2021, there are well-founded fears that current tensions will escalate well beyond cross-border gunfire and into a full-blown war. This is far from unimaginable, as India and Pakistan have fought four wars against each other since partition in 1947. A deep religious antagonism – Pakistan is a hardline Islamic society and India increasingly Hindu nationalist – makes them perennially uneasy bedfellows, even without the added complications of disputed borders.