RUTHFULLY YOURS

I can understand President Trump’s taking his time to decide whether or not to intervene in the Israel/Iran war, given the strength of the ‘no new wars’ sentiment of much of his base.  In deference to them he did not rush into a decision. 

However, he was caught up by two considerations of his own devising.  Firstly, his firm and repeated assertion that Iran will never be allowed a nuclear weapon.  And, secondly, his demand that allies step up to the plate in defending themselves if they expect US help.  Implicit in that demand is that the US will help those friends and allies who help themselves.  Israel has done that in spades.  And, in doing so, it is rendering a great service to the rest of the world.

If Trump did not support Israel at this critical time, as he has now done, how seriously should, for example, the Albanese government take his demand to increase our own spending?  After all, the effective US contribution would not involve boots on the ground.  Just dropping two or three bunker busting bombs on selected sites from virtually uncontested airspace.  It would pose no risk of escalation from other state parties because they have not already intervened against Israel.

What is the downside?  There is a risk that Iran would strike US facilities in retaliation and that, undoubtedly, would hurt Trump domestically.   It would not, however, materially damage US power. There is a risk that the MOAB bomb might not have been able to penetrate the Fordow fortifications.  But two or three strikes would probably increase the chances.  It would be surprising if it did not do significant damage.  There is speculation the facility could be 100 metres or more below the surface.  But no matter how far underground it is, there must be surface level access points, and it would be strange if Israel did not know where they are.  With modern guidance systems a MOAB can be delivered straight through the front door — or any other door, for that matter.

I believe that Trump genuinely deplores war, as I do.  However, that does not make him a member of the kumbaya brigade, any more than it does me.  No military action comes without risk.  But sometimes the risk of inaction outweighs the alternative.

How, for example, would Taiwan – already in some doubt about US resolve to defend it – feel about a decision by Trump not to take all steps available to help Israel rid the world of the risk of Iran having a nuclear bomb?  Particularly when the risk is relatively low.  More importantly, how would China react?  Beijing would infer that Trump talks loudly and carries a big stick that he is afraid to use.

I am an unabashed supporter of President Trump but, for me, this decision will define his presidency. His mantra is ‘America first’ but, as he has just demonstrated, he is no isolationist.