RUTHIE BLUM: POLL DANCING AND WISHFUL THINKING

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=10979

A Haaretz poll, conducted on Tuesday by the Dialog Institute and supervised by ‎Professor Camil Fuchs of Tel Aviv University, revealed seemingly paradoxical results.

According to the poll, which was taken among a representative sample of 505 Israelis, ‎Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is very unpopular, but remains the best candidate for ‎the job.‎

Indeed, while most of the public does not want him to win a third consecutive term ‎‎(which would constitute a fourth term overall), his rivals fare worse.‎

It must be kept in mind that the Knesset elections are scheduled for March, nearly three ‎months away. A lot can happen in that time, especially in Israel, where events are ‎incredibly dynamic on a daily basis. ‎

Proof of this is how distant the war in Gaza now seems, though it ended very recently. In ‎July and August, Hamas missiles were flying all over the country, sending the entire ‎populace into bomb shelters and a smaller number into Gaza to fight the terrorists and ‎destroy their infrastructure. By October, the cheap cost of chocolate pudding in Berlin ‎compared with that in Tel Aviv was front-page news.‎

In addition, because of the nature of survey questions, which leave no room for nuance or ‎qualifications, they are not reliable. What they provide, however, is a general, anecdotal ‎sense of the way the wind is blowing at any given moment. Like man-in-the-street ‎interviews, they serve as a gauge of temporary gut sentiment.‎

Due to the way the political system works in Israel, one main question on the mind of ‎average voters is whether to cast their ballot for the largest party that comes closest to ‎their worldview, or to go with a smaller party with a more specific focus. Opting for the ‎latter often means throwing one’s vote into the garbage, since narrow-interest tickets — ‎such as the marijuana party — usually don’t pass the electoral threshold to make it into the ‎Knesset. ‎

This used to be a far more cut-and-dry choice between Left and Right. The major parties ‎would garner most of the votes, and the victor among the two would form the coalition.‎

But since both previous major blocs, Likud and Labor, have split over the years, the Knesset ‎map has changed. Today, there are three or four parties hovering around the same number of seats, or at least garnering a sufficient number to make them a force for the party ‎forming the coalition to be reckoned with.‎

It is precisely this state of affairs that caused the current government to fall. Netanyahu’s ‎cabinet was made up of such a diverse bunch that it was virtually impossible for him to ‎forge and implement coherent policies, both foreign and domestic. It is no wonder, then, ‎that the public, which gave him unprecedented support during Operation Protective Edge ‎this summer, is dissatisfied with his stewardship. ‎

Ironically, however, the behavior and ideology of the leaders of the other parties are also ‎being faulted. Furthermore, in spite of all the hatred of Netanyahu from the Left, and the ‎anger at him on the part of right-wingers who view him as a sellout, there is an unspoken ‎consensus among the floating voters that he is the only party leader on the scene with ‎sufficient gravitas to be prime minister.‎

Hence the merger of former Justice Minister Tzipi Livni and Opposition and Labor Party ‎leader Isaac Herzog. They clearly came to realize that neither has the standing and ‎statesmanship of their arch rival, and that in order to beat him, they need to put their two ‎half-heads together, on the one hand, and to stop diluting the “peace-camp” brand on the ‎other.‎

The one candidate who is causing the undecided voters pause is Moshe Kahlon. Credited ‎with having opened the cellphone market to competition and drastically reduced ‎consumer prices, the former communications minister from the Likud who resigned two ‎years ago has re-emerged to form the Kulanu (“All of Us”) party.‎

A handsome figure with one capitalist accomplishment under his belt, Kahlon is ‎becoming the social-democratic flavor of the month for promising to be all things for all ‎people. ‎

Yes, his message is that our children deserve a better future. How original. Why hasn’t ‎anyone else thought of it?‎

His goal is to bring about peace, security, quality education, better health care, social ‎justice, affordable housing and pots of gold at the end of a rainbow. To this end, he is in ‎the process of recruiting like-minded “centrists,” such as former Ambassador to the U.S. ‎Michael Oren and former MK Orna Angel, a former advisor to former Prime Minister Ehud Barak. He is also ‎considering joining forces with former Finance Minister Yair Lapid, the former journalist ‎who was formerly popular for promising all the same things.‎

This goes to show that Israelis are as stupid as they are smart. ‎

In spite of grasping that Iran is about to get the bomb, that the Palestinians are more ‎interested in killing Jews than establishing an independent state, that the United States ‎under Barack Obama is a dubious ally, that anti-Semitism is on a steep rise across the ‎world, and that “centrist” parties always move to the left without delivering the goods, ‎they still want to be seduced into fantasy-land.‎

If Kahlon succeeds at pulling the wool over the eyes of voters who have an aversion to ‎Netanyahu but see no alternative on the horizon, he will become the kingmaker of the ‎upcoming elections.‎

Only another war — or a miracle — will prevent that from happening. Wishful thinking ‎causes me to hope for the latter.‎

Ruthie Blum is the author of “To Hell in a Handbas

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